Tag Archive: inflation

Market Takes JPY Lower Despite Intervention Speculation, While Sterling Shines

2024-07-12

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2024-07-12

Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating yesterday's CPI-inspired decline. The main features include the market bidding the US dollar back above JPY159 despite more speculation that the BOJ did in fact intervene yesterday and checked on the euro-yen cross in the local session today, and unexpectedly soft Swedish inflation, which the swaps market says could spur three rate cuts here in second half. A record trade surplus and strong aggregate...

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Economic Freedom: The Cornerstone of Western Civilization

2024-07-05

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2024-07-05

Share this article Part I of II, by Claudio Grass Western civilization – with all its scientific and technological progress, artistic prowess, philosophical and sociopolitical evolution, moral values, ethical principles and rich culture – took millennia to reach its famed “Enlightenment” point. It has been a rollercoaster, violently swinging from highs to lows and from darkness to light, from autocracy, tyranny and despotism to humanism and...

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Nervous Calm Hangs over the Markets

2024-06-25

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2024-06-25

Overview:  San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly spoke aloud what many are thinking. The US labor market may be at an inflection point. The four-week moving average of weekly jobless claims is at the highest since last September and the early call for July nonfarm payrolls is about 185k, which if true, would be a sub-200k reading for the second time in three months. The high-flying Nvidia has fallen 13% in the past three sessions coming into...

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Self-Inflicted Wounds in Europe and Japan Help the Greenback Shrug Off the Drag of Lower Rates

2024-06-14

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2024-06-14

Overview: The dollar is bid. What makes its performance standout is that it is taking place as US rates have fallen. The US 10-year yield is near 4.20%, the lowest in more than two months. The two-year yield is near 4.67%. It has fallen every session this week for a cumulative decline of more than 20 bp. It is not so much that constructive developments took week, but that Europe and Japan are suffering from self-inflicted injury. Macron's call for...

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Interview with Executive Global: “The Return of Marxism in the West”

2024-06-05

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2024-06-05

Our special interview on Swiss Wealth Advisor with CLAUDIO GRASS, CEO and Independent Precious Metals Consultant, explores the manner in which astute investors may preserve wealth against the backdrop of debilitating central economic planning and monetary inflation. 

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Japan Confirms Intervention, China’s PMI Disappoints, EMU CPI Firms, Ahead of US PCE Deflator

2024-05-31

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2024-05-31

Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating yesterday's losses ahead of month-end and the US income and consumption data. The PCE core deflator may have risen by 0.2%, the least this, year, but the year-over-year rate is expected to be steady at 2.8%. The dollar is recovering from a five-day low against the yen recorded yesterday near JPY156.40 and is near JPY157.30 in the late European morning turnover. The yen's retreat and a disappointing...

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Dollar Pulled Back in Europe. New Buying Opportunity?

2024-05-30

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2024-05-30

Overview: The dollar initially extended yesterday's North American recovery but unwound most of the gains in the European morning. As North American dealers return, the greenback is lower against most of the G10 currencies. After approaching levels believed to have been where the BOJ last intervened, profit-taking pushed the dollar back to a marginal new low for the week (~JPY156.55). The yen's recovery arguably helped the Chinese yuan rise for the...

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Stocks and Bonds Retreat; Greenback Extends Recovery but Little Changed Ahead of North American Session

2024-05-29

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2024-05-29

Overview: Stocks and bonds are lower today, and the dollar is slightly firmer having extended yesterday's recovery. Most of the G10 currencies are lower, though the Japanese yen has recovered from after falling to its lowest level since May 1. Slightly softer than expected German states' CPI did the euro no favors. It was sold to a three-day low near $1.0830 before stabilizing. Sterling steadied after dipping briefly below $1.2750. Most emerging...

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Saving in gold is the only reliable way to save 

2024-04-25

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2024-04-25

Share this article For the longest time, according to conventional and widely embraced wisdom, all responsible and prudent members of society had to have a savings account. All those hardworking taxpayers and all those forward-thinking and sensible individuals that understand the importance of planning ahead, of being prepared for whatever the future holds and of securing a better life for their children, have traditionally been expected to put...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Are Higher Interest Rates Good For The Economy?

2024-04-15

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2024-04-15

Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report that wasn’t actually that bad (see below). Not that my – or your – opinion about these things matters all that much to the market.

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The Anti-Concepts of Money: Conclusion

2024-04-15

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2024-04-15

The Anti-Concepts of Money. The cash-value of promoting each of these anti-concepts is that they lead people to think that the central bank should impose a monetary policy. To make our lives better. 

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Is gold too expensive to buy right now?

2024-04-08

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2024-04-08

Share this article This question has been at the center of a great many conversations I’ve been recently having with clients and friends. The way I like to answer it is with another question: Expensive compared to what?  Despite its recent surge to record highs, there are compelling reasons why purchasing gold right now is a prudent decision, with strong indications that its value is poised to climb even higher. Making investment decisions...

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Gold, Oil, and Interest Rates Rise

2024-04-02

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2024-04-02

Overview:  The market put more weight on the rise in the US ISM manufacturing survey than the downward revision to the manufacturing PMI and the unexpected back-to-back decline in construction spending. US rates shot up and lifted the greenback. The Dollar Index made a new high for the year, a little above 105, which had been anticipated by the new lows recorded by the Bannockburn World Currency Index (a GDP-weighted basket of the currencies of...

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Dollar Extends Gains Against the Yen but Broadly Firmer Ahead of the FOMC

2024-03-20

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2024-03-20

Overview: The US dollar remains bid ahead of the outcome of today's FOMC meeting. No change in policy is expected, but the forward guidance, partly delivered in the updated projections, is the focus. In the last iteration (December), the Fed "dot" was for three rate cuts this year. Japanese markets were closed for a national holiday today but dollar's gains against the yen have been extended and the greenback is nearing the peak seen in...

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Strong US Retail Sales may Help Extend the Dollar’s Recovery

2024-03-14

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2024-03-14

Overview: We have put emphasis on today's US retail sales report. A recovery from the weather-induced weakness in January should underscore the resilience of US demand after another 200k jobs were created and personal income jumped 1%.

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Forex Becalmed with the Greenback Mostly Firmer in Narrow Ranges

2024-03-05

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2024-03-05

(Business trip will interrupt the commentary over the next few days.  Check out the March monthly here.  Back with the Week Ahead on March 9. May have some comments on X @marcmakingsense.) Overview: Outside of the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which are off by 0.20%-0.25%, the other G10 currencies are little changed and mostly softer in narrow ranges. A firm Tokyo CPI, mostly on base effects and softer rates helped keep the US dollar below...

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Yen Pops on BOJ Comments on Inflation, but the Dollar holds Most of Yesterday’s Gains against the other G10 Currencies

2024-02-29

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2024-02-29

The dollar is mixed as the market awaits the US personal consumption expenditure deflator, which is the measure of inflation the Fed targets. While there is headline risk, we argue that the signal has already been generated by the CPI and PPI releases.

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Japanese Officials Weigh-In and Help Yen Stabilize, while Euro and Sterling Extend Losses

2024-02-14

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2024-02-14

Overview: The market's reaction to the firmer than expected January CPI seems exaggerated. We do not think it was the game-changer for the Federal Reserve that the market seemed to think. The dollar was driven higher, and it is stabilizing today, though the euro and sterling extended their losses, most of the other G10 currencies did not. After the yen's six-week slide did not elicit a response from Japanese officials, yesterday's drop did, and...

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Sterling Buoyed by Labor Market Report Ahead of US CPI

2024-02-13

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2024-02-13

Overview: The US dollar is enjoying a mostly firmer bias ahead of today's CPI report. Sterling is the strongest among the G10 currencies after a more resilient than expected labor market report. The dollar extended its gains against the Japanese yen to a new high since last November, but the market seems cautious as it approaches JPY150, where large options expire today. On the other hand, emerging market currencies are mostly faring better. The...

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US Tech Sell-Off Challenges Risk Appetites Ahead of the FOMC

2024-01-31

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2024-01-31

Overview: Ahead of the US Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement and the outcome of the FOMC meeting, the dollar is trading higher against all the G10 currencies. With US high-flying tech stocks posting steep losses after disappointing earnings reports, the currencies most sensitive to risk-appetites, the dollar bloc and the Norwegian krone are the weakest. Emerging market currencies are mixed. The South African rand, Philippine peso, and...

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