Tag Archive: inflation
Is the US CPI Anti-Climactic?
Overview: Today's US CPI is the focus but the bar to a Fed cut next month is low, and it could prove anti-climactic. The more moderate inflation reading creates more space for the central bank to respond to signs of a continued slowing of the US labor market and adopt less restrictive policy. The dollar is mixed as the North American session gets under way. The rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, not a total surprise, but has seen fall 1%....
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Yen Slumps, Germany Contracts, and the Week’s Key Events Still Lie Ahead
Overview: An unexpected decline in Japan's unemployment did not prevent a retreat in the yen to a four-day low ahead of tomorrow's data and conclusion of the BOJ meeting. The dollar has probed the JPY155 area where nearly $3.5 bln options expire today. An unexpected contraction Germany's Q2 GDP was offset in the aggregate by better French, and especially Spanish figures, leaving the euro consolidating in a narrow range (~$1.0815-$1.0835). The...
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Market Takes JPY Lower Despite Intervention Speculation, While Sterling Shines
Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating yesterday's CPI-inspired decline. The main features include the market bidding the US dollar back above JPY159 despite more speculation that the BOJ did in fact intervene yesterday and checked on the euro-yen cross in the local session today, and unexpectedly soft Swedish inflation, which the swaps market says could spur three rate cuts here in second half. A record trade surplus and strong aggregate...
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Economic Freedom: The Cornerstone of Western Civilization
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Part I of II, by Claudio Grass
Western civilization – with all its scientific and technological progress, artistic prowess, philosophical and sociopolitical evolution, moral values, ethical principles and rich culture – took millennia to reach its famed “Enlightenment” point. It has been a rollercoaster, violently swinging from highs to lows and from darkness to light, from autocracy, tyranny and despotism to humanism and...
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Nervous Calm Hangs over the Markets
Overview: San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly spoke aloud what many are thinking. The US labor market may be at an inflection point. The four-week moving average of weekly jobless claims is at the highest since last September and the early call for July nonfarm payrolls is about 185k, which if true, would be a sub-200k reading for the second time in three months. The high-flying Nvidia has fallen 13% in the past three sessions coming into...
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Self-Inflicted Wounds in Europe and Japan Help the Greenback Shrug Off the Drag of Lower Rates
Overview: The dollar is bid. What makes its
performance standout is that it is taking place as US rates have fallen. The US
10-year yield is near 4.20%, the lowest in more than two months. The two-year
yield is near 4.67%. It has fallen every session this week for a cumulative
decline of more than 20 bp. It is not so much that constructive developments
took week, but that Europe and Japan are suffering from self-inflicted injury. Macron's
call for...
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Interview with Executive Global: “The Return of Marxism in the West”
Our special interview on Swiss Wealth Advisor with CLAUDIO GRASS, CEO and Independent Precious Metals Consultant, explores the manner in which astute investors may preserve wealth against the backdrop of debilitating central economic planning and monetary inflation.
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Japan Confirms Intervention, China’s PMI Disappoints, EMU CPI Firms, Ahead of US PCE Deflator
Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating
yesterday's losses ahead of month-end and the US income and consumption data. The
PCE core deflator may have risen by 0.2%, the least this, year, but the
year-over-year rate is expected to be steady at 2.8%. The dollar is recovering
from a five-day low against the yen recorded yesterday near JPY156.40 and is
near JPY157.30 in the late European morning turnover. The yen's retreat and a
disappointing...
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Dollar Pulled Back in Europe. New Buying Opportunity?
Overview: The dollar initially extended yesterday's
North American recovery but unwound most of the gains in the European morning. As
North American dealers return, the greenback is lower against most of the G10
currencies. After approaching levels believed to have been where the BOJ last
intervened, profit-taking pushed the dollar back to a marginal new low for the
week (~JPY156.55). The yen's recovery arguably helped the Chinese yuan rise for
the...
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Stocks and Bonds Retreat; Greenback Extends Recovery but Little Changed Ahead of North American Session
Overview: Stocks and bonds are lower today, and the
dollar is slightly firmer having extended yesterday's recovery. Most of the G10
currencies are lower, though the Japanese yen has recovered from after falling
to its lowest level since May 1. Slightly softer than expected German states'
CPI did the euro no favors. It was sold to a three-day low near $1.0830 before
stabilizing. Sterling steadied after dipping briefly below $1.2750. Most
emerging...
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Saving in gold is the only reliable way to save
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For the longest time, according to conventional and widely embraced wisdom, all responsible and prudent members of society had to have a savings account. All those hardworking taxpayers and all those forward-thinking and sensible individuals that understand the importance of planning ahead, of being prepared for whatever the future holds and of securing a better life for their children, have traditionally been expected to put...
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Weekly Market Pulse: Are Higher Interest Rates Good For The Economy?
Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report that wasn’t actually that bad (see below). Not that my – or your – opinion about these things matters all that much to the market.
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Is gold too expensive to buy right now?
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This question has been at the center of a great many conversations I’ve been recently having with clients and friends. The way I like to answer it is with another question: Expensive compared to what?
Despite its recent surge to record highs, there are compelling reasons why purchasing gold right now is a prudent decision, with strong indications that its value is poised to climb even higher. Making investment decisions...
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Gold, Oil, and Interest Rates Rise
Overview: The market put more weight on the rise in
the US ISM manufacturing survey than the downward revision to the manufacturing
PMI and the unexpected back-to-back decline in construction spending. US rates
shot up and lifted the greenback. The Dollar Index made a new high for the
year, a little above 105, which had been anticipated by the new lows recorded
by the Bannockburn
World Currency Index (a GDP-weighted basket of the currencies of...
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Dollar Extends Gains Against the Yen but Broadly Firmer Ahead of the FOMC
Overview: The US dollar remains bid ahead of the outcome of today's
FOMC meeting. No change in policy is expected, but the forward guidance, partly
delivered in the updated projections, is the focus. In the last iteration
(December), the Fed "dot" was for three rate cuts this year. Japanese
markets were closed for a national holiday today but dollar's gains against the
yen have been extended and the greenback is nearing the peak seen in...
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Strong US Retail Sales may Help Extend the Dollar’s Recovery
Overview: We have put emphasis on today's US retail sales report. A recovery from the weather-induced weakness in January should underscore the resilience of US demand after another 200k jobs were created and personal income jumped 1%.
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Forex Becalmed with the Greenback Mostly Firmer in Narrow Ranges
(Business trip will interrupt the commentary over the next few days. Check out the March monthly here. Back with the Week Ahead on March 9. May have some comments on X @marcmakingsense.) Overview: Outside of the Australian and New Zealand
dollars, which are off by 0.20%-0.25%, the other G10 currencies are little
changed and mostly softer in narrow ranges. A firm Tokyo CPI, mostly on base
effects and softer rates helped keep the US dollar below...
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Yen Pops on BOJ Comments on Inflation, but the Dollar holds Most of Yesterday’s Gains against the other G10 Currencies
The dollar is mixed as the market awaits the US personal consumption expenditure deflator, which is the measure of inflation the Fed targets. While there is headline risk, we argue that the signal has already been generated by the CPI and PPI releases.
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