Tag Archive: Great Graphic

Great Graphic: Trade and Tariffs-End of an Era?

This Great Graphic was tweeted by the Financial Time's John Authers, who got it from @fathomcomment. The green line is the inversion of global trade (right-hand scale). The blue line is a trade-weighted average global tariff rate. What the chart shows...

Great Graphic: Is the Pound Sterling?

Sterling's 2.75% rally today is the biggest advance in more than eight years. The UK government has done a good job of managing expectations. Over the last week or so, Prime Minister May and Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond has made it clear that...

The Difference of an A and BBB for Italy

DBRS cut Italy's rating to BBB from A. It will increase the haircut on Italy's sovereign bonds used for collateral by Italian banks. It is not a mortal blow or a significant hit, but is not helpful, except to add pressure on Italy and further reduce...

Great Graphic: Real Rates in US are Elevated

The US 10-year yield fell briefly below 1.32% last July. The yield slowly rose to reach 1.80% in mid-October. The day after the election, the yield initially slipped to almost 1.71%. This was a bit of a miscue, and the yield rose sharply to hit almost...

Great Graphic: Real Wages

This Great Graphic caught my eye. It was tweeted by Ninja Economics. Her point was about immigration. German had much higher immigration than the UK, but also saw real wage increase of nearly 14% in the 2007-2015 period, while real wages in the UK fell...

You Know what Happened to Nominal Exchange Rates, but What about Effective Exchange Rates?

Yen is up slightly this year on an effective trade weighted basis. The euro has gained about 1% this year on an effective trade weighted basis. Sterling's decline has been significant on an effective basis. The yuan's decline looks to have corrected...

Great Graphic: Another Look at the Reproduction Problem

In order for a society to be sustained social relations have to be reproduced. Yet now neither the middle class nor capital are able to reproduce themselves. This may be the single greatest challenge our society faces.

Great Graphic: Dollar Index Update

The Dollar Index's technical tone has deteriorated. It is corresponding to the easing of US rates and a narrowing differential. The risk is that the correction can continue in the coming days.

Great Graphic: Yen and Yuan Connection

The US dollar has rallied against both the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan since the end of September. Through today, the yen has fallen 9.8% and the yuan has fallen by 3.5%. What they have in common is the rise in US interest rates relative to their...

Great Graphic: Euro-the Big Picture

Most economists are focusing on either US monetary policy or US fiscal policy. We focus on the policy mix. After the policy mix, politics is also a weigh on the euro. Our long-term call is for the euro to revisit the lows from 2000.

Great Graphic: Growth in Federal Spending

Federal spending growth under Obama is lower than under the previous four presidents. Subsequent to the chart, US federal spending has increased. It will likely increase more under the next President.

Great Graphic: Shifting Trade-Weighted Exchange Rates

The dollar's trade-weighted index is firming and a couple percentage points from the year's high set in January. The yen's trade-weighted index is at several month lows, but remains dramatically higher ear-to-date. The euro's trade-weighted index has...

Rising US Premium Lifts Dollar-Yen

US 10-year rate premium is the largest in 2.5 years. US 2-year premium is the most since Q4 2008. Japanese investors likely will be buying foreign bonds, while foreigners may see opportunities in Japanese stocks after being large sellers in the first 9...

Sterling High Court Decision on Parliament’s Right to Vote on Brexit

The UK High Court defends Parliament's right to vote before Article 50 is triggered. The decision will be appealed. Sterling approached an important resistance as it extended its rally for the fifth session.

Great Graphic: Sentix Shows a Shift

The risk that the eurozone implodes over the next year has risen, but is still modest. Italy has surpassed Greece as the most likely candidate. The December referendum is the second part of Renzi's political reforms.

Great Graphic: Italian Banks and a German Bank

DB and Italian bank stocks have been moving in tandem. They suffer from fundamentally different problems. The euro has been selling off as the bank shares rebound.

Great Graphic: Consumer Inflation: US, UK, EMU

Price pressures appear to have bottomed for the US, UK, and to a lesser extent, EMU. Rise in prices cannot be reduced solely to the increase of oil. Core prices are also rising.

Great Graphic: China’s PPI and Commodities

China's PPI rose for the first time in four years. It is related to the rise in commodities. Yet there are good reasons there is not a perfect fit between China's PPI and commodity prices. US and UK CPI to be reported next week, risk is on the upside.

IMF’s Reserve Data: Dollar Share Little Changed, Yen Share Jumps, Helped By Valuation

The increase in the yen's share of reserves was flattered by the yen's 9% appreciation. The dollar and euro's share of reserves were stable. Chinese integration has seen the share of unallocated reserves fall. Starting with Q3 data, (available end of...

Great Graphic: Euro is Approaching Year-Long Uptrend

The year-long euro uptrend comes in near $1.1035, just below the August lows. The technical are fragile, but the euro is below its lower Bollinger Band. The fundamental driver seems to be the backing up of US rates, and widening premium over Germany.
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