Tag Archive: Gold

Global Macro with all Global PMIs July 4th

2012-07-04

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2012-07-04

On the way to a recession
updated July 4,2012 This page inside our macro data menu contains global PMIs  compared with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD as of the day after most PMIs came out. JP Morgan’s Global PMI:  Click for details inside the table, History of composite PMI  

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Some of our Twitter followers

Marc Faber 3
Here a quick list of some of our Twitter followers: Marc Faber Blog @marcfaberblog FOLLOWS YOU Marc Faber is an investor and economist known for his spot-on assessment of the world economy. He also manages his own investment company, Marc Faber Limited.· http://marcfaberblog.com economie_suisse ‏@economie_suisse FOLLOWS YOU La principale organisation faîtière de l'économie suisse

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Quantitative Easing Indicators, June 2012

2012-06-10

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2012-06-10

5 year FAV Credit Suisse
The main drivers for demand for Swiss francs are the Euro crisis, but even more the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of further bad US economic data and in the fear of Quantitative Easing. This will push down the dollar and safe-havens like the CHF, gold or the … Continue reading »

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The “Sell in May, come back in October” effect and its equivalent for the SNB

2012-06-09

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2012-06-09

Sell in May, Come back in October
  The "Sell in May, come back in October" effect It is the same seasonal anomaly nearly every year: The statistically flawed (see here and here) Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report delivers some good winter readings with 200K new jobs, this time additionally fuelled by a weather effect; biased data that let hard-core Keynesian policy makers doubt Okun's law. Consequently the stock markets rally …

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References & Ping Backs



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CNBC rumors: Different peg methods for the SNB

2012-05-30

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2012-05-30

Crawling peg RSD
There are currently rumors going on on CNBC that the SNB is planning something this night. As we explained here, the SNB had to strongly restart the printing press and printed tremendous 13 bln francs in one week. Moreover, they probably sold some of their in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 acquired GBP, JYP and …

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The vicious cycle of the US economy or why the US dollar must ultimately fall again

2012-05-22

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2012-05-22

Core PCE
Just some simple words about the vicious cycle of the US economy and the consequences on the US dollar: A stronger USD will not rescue the US economy, quite the contrary. US companies will not hire in the US, but outsource or hire overseas. If they hire in the US, due to the high number …

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SNB buys Swiss Francs and sells Euro: Welcome to the EUR/CHF peg

2012-05-01

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2012-05-01

dailyfx long eur/chf q1 2012
Why the big Q1 loss of the SNB was actually a big win for the central bank Anybody watching the EUR/CHF exchange rate this year was wondering why the volatility the pair saw last year had completely left. The pair slowly fell from 1.2156 over 1.2040 at the end of Q1 to 1.2014 today. FX … Continue reading...

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SNB meeting on March 15th, 2012: Pure Speculation that SNB raises floor, How to Trade it ?

2012-03-14

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2012-03-14

Between November 2011 and January 2012 mostly left-wing politicians and trade unions wanted the EUR/CHF floor to be risen to 1.30 or 1.40 and uttered their wishes regularly in the Swiss newspapers, triggering many FX traders to speculate on this hike. Recently these demands have become more silent even if some UBS analysts still see the floor to …

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Written in February 2012: Will the EUR/CHF never rise over 1.22 or 1.23 again?

Our analysis from February 2012 shows astonishing accurateness: It predicted that the euro would not rise against CHF and that the commodity currencies were overvalued and subject to correction. Basic foreign exchange theory, the SNB price stability mandate and strong fundamentals for Switzerland and bad ones for the peripheral countries of the euro zone speak for the thesis that the EUR/CHF exchange rate might never go over the level of around...

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EUR/CHF, A History, Market Betting on Floor Hike: January 2012

2012-01-31

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2012-01-31

eurchf 3 minutes
1.2034 The EUR/CHF Low As Risk-Off Resumes   1.2025 barrier supposedly in play while the 1.2000 peg below will act as a magnet if broken. There is something about the forex mindset that prompts markets to reach out and touch things that are not meant to be touched. EUR/US fell to 1.3063, triggering a few … Continue reading »

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The new European Save-Havens: Trade SEK/CHF and NOK/CHF

2012-01-10

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2012-01-10

eurchf eursek eurnok eurusd 2009-2011
After the announcement of the floor in the EUR/CHF pair, many predicted the Swedish and the Norwegian Krone to take the place of the Swiss Franc as European save-haven against the Euro turmoil (http://on.ft.com/pKSJ1V). Both countries possess a low level of debt, positive trade balance and very competitive economies.

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EUR/CHF, Market betting on Floor Hike, December 2011

2011-12-31

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2011-12-31

12-7 chf december 2011
Four Trades For 2012: #2 Sell The Swiss Franc I bought EUR/CHF shortly after the 1.20 peg was introduced and have held it ever since. My only regret has not been trading the range more aggressively. At this point everyone has an opinion of the SNB so I won’t try to convince the bears. Personally, … Continue reading »

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SNB: Lift EUR/CHF floor or not ?

2011-12-14

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2011-12-14

chf vs. gold in 2011
Many participants in the FX markets seem to be sure that the SNB will lift the EUR/CHF flow to 1.25 Here the pros and the cons:

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EUR/CHF: A History of Interventions: September 2011: The Floor Introduction

2011-09-30

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2011-09-30

eurchf daily sept6
SNB Spotted In The Cross Today… Traders say the SNB was seen on the bid in lumpy size on the quick slide toward 1.2120 shortly after the open of US equity cash markets at 13:30. We’ve quickly bounced to 1.2170. By Jamie Coleman  || September 30, 2011 at 14:20 GMT Category: All, Americas, Mkt Talk, Regions || Tags: EUR/CHF || 0 comments || Add …

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EUR/CHF: A History of Interventions: August 2011: the Top

2011-08-31

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2011-08-31

8-16 gbp
  EUR/CHF Kicked Lower Again Hitting a new low this week of  1.1545 and is  down over 300 pips on the day. The moved largely initiated by a major swiss name earlier apparently in conjunction with a hedge fund. Comments from the Swiss Econ Min over the last hour hardly helping matters, after the govt aid package … Continue reading »

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EUR/CHF: One Year of Free Market (07/2010-07/2011): July 2011

2011-07-31

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2011-07-31

ForexLive Asian Market Open EUR/USD is trading around 1.4390 and USD/JPY is at 77.20 as the market awaits the latest developments out of Washington. Risk pairs like EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF are likely to be whippy this morning as the headlines hit the newswires. Good luck out there. By Sean Lee  || July 31, 2011 at 20:49 … Continue reading »

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EUR/CHF: One Year of Free Market (07/2010-07/2011): June 2011

2011-06-30

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2011-06-30

6-14 eurchf
Specs Scrambling For Cover In EUR/CHF The Armageddon trade is being taken off in dramatic size in thin-month-end markets, driving EUR/CHF above 1.2200. USD/CHF is nearing resistance at 0.8440. Traders not talk of significant interest from real money accounts to buy both USD/CHF and USD/JPY at the fixing at 15:00 GMT. The danger now is … Continue reading »

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EUR/CHF: One Year of Free Market (07/2010-07/2011): May 2011

2011-05-31

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2011-05-31

May 2011 ForexLive Asian Market Open: Analysis With Fries Just brilliant Jamie Australian GDP this morning and the market is now gearing itself for a poor number after yesterday’s data and weekend comments from the Treasurer. China is selling rallies in AUD/USD and Middle East Sovereigns are buying big dips; sounds like a recipe for medium … Continue reading »

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EUR/CHF: One Year of Free Market (07/2010-07/2011): February 2011

2011-02-28

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2011-02-28

2-2 eur
February 2011 EUR/USD Outlook EUR/CHF looks like its forming important technical support at 1.2700 and should go higher. EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY are best described as choppy but the EUR/AUD is also exhibiting some ‘basing’ tendencies. With the USD in sell mode, the path of least resistance for EUR/USD would seem to be up. It will not … Continue reading...

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