Tag Archive: Germany

FX Daily, March 06: Panic Deepens, US Employment Data Means Little

2020-03-06

The sharp sell-off in US equities and yields yesterday is spurring a mini-meltdown globally today. Many of the Asia Pacific markets, including Japan, Australia, Taiwan, and India, saw more than 2% drops, while most others fell more than 1%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped the four-day advance had lifted it about 2.8% coming into today.

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Economy: Curved Again

2020-02-27

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-02-27

Earlier today, Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) confirmed the country’s economy is in recession. Updating its estimate for Q4 GDP, year-over-year output declined by 0.5% rather than -0.3% as first thought. On a quarterly basis, GDP was down for the second consecutive quarter which mainstream convention treats as a technical recession.

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Schaetze To That

2020-02-26

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-02-26

When Mario Draghi sat down for his scheduled press conference on April 4, 2012, it was a key moment and he knew it. The ECB had finished up the second of its “massive” LTRO auctions only weeks before. Draghi was still relatively new to the job, having taken over for Jean-Claude Trichet the prior November amidst substantial turmoil.

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FX Daily, February 25: Capital Markets Remain Fragile after Yesterday’s Bloodletting

2020-02-25

by Marc Chandler

2020-02-25

Overview: Yesterday's bloodletting in global equities has calmed, but investors remain on edge. Despite all the concerns that the markets were under-appreciating the implications of the new coronavirus, there is a sense that yesterday's moves were in excess. Japanese markets, which were closed on Monday, played catch-up today, and the Nikkei shed 3.3%.

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FX Weekly Preview: Sources of Imbalance and the Pushback Against New Divergence

2020-02-24

by Marc Chandler

2020-02-24

The US dollar's surge alongside gold has eclipsed the equity market rally as the key development in the capital markets. Even the traditional seemingly safe-haven yen was no match for the greenback. The dollar appeared to have been rolling over in Q4 19, as the sentiment surveys in Europe improved, Japanese officials seemingly thought the economy could withstand a sales tax increase, and data suggested the Chinese economy was gaining some...

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FX Daily, February 18: Apple’s Warning Weighs on Sentiment

2020-02-18

by Marc Chandler

2020-02-18

Overview: Apple's warning that it will miss Q1 revenue due to the knock-on effects of the coronavirus seemed to be a modest wake-up call to investors, who, judging from the equity market, were looking beyond. Equities have fallen, and bonds have rallied. Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korean stocks fell by more than 1%, and only China and Indonesia were able to post gains.

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European Data: Much More In Store For Number Four

2020-02-18

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-02-18

It’s just Germany. It’s just industry. The excuses pile up as long as the downturn. Over across the Atlantic the situation has only now become truly serious. The European part of this globally synchronized downturn is already two years long and just recently is it becoming too much for the catcalls to ignore. Central bankers are trying their best to, obviously, but the numbers just aren’t stacking up their way.

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As the Data Comes In, 2019 Really Did End Badly

2020-02-12

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-02-12

The coronavirus began during December, but in its early stages no one knew a thing about it. It wasn’t until January 1 that health authorities in China closed the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market after initially determining some wild animals sold there might have been the source of a pneumonia-like outbreak. On January 5, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission issued a statement saying it wasn’t SARS or MERS, and that the spreading disease would be...

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Two Years And Now It’s Getting Serious

2020-02-11

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-02-11

We knew German Industrial Production for December 2019 was going to be ugly given what deStatis had reported for factory orders yesterday. In all likelihood, Germany’s industrial economy ended last year sinking and maybe too quickly. What was actually reported, however, exceeded every pessimistic guess and expectation – by a lot.

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COT Black: German Factories, Oklahoma Tank Farms, And FRBNY

2020-02-09

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-02-09

I wrote a few months ago that Germany’s factories have been the perfect example of the eurodollar squeeze. The disinflationary tendency that even central bankers can’t ignore once it shows up in the global economy as obvious headwinds. What made and still makes German industry noteworthy is the way it has unfolded and continues to unfold. The downtrend just won’t stop.

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FX Daily, February 6: Stocks Push Higher but more Cautious Tone may be Emerging

2020-02-06

by Marc Chandler

2020-02-06

Overview: The bullish enthusiasm that carried the S&P 500 to new closing highs yesterday is helping Asia Pacific and European shares today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the third session with Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Korea jumping two percent. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 gapped to new record highs before stabilizing in mid-morning turnover. US shares are mostly firmer.

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FX Daily, January 30: Contagion Impact not Peaked, Weighs on Risk Appetites

2020-01-30

by Marc Chandler

2020-01-30

Overview: The ongoing concerns about the geometric progression of the new coronavirus continues to swamp other considerations for investors. Risk continues to be unwound, as the World Health Organization meets to decide if this is indeed a global health emergency. Several large equity markets in Asia were hit particularly hard.

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With No Second Half Rebound, Confirming The Squeeze

2020-01-29

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-01-29

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey, 2006-2019

It’s a palpable impatience. Having learned absolutely nothing from the most recent German example, there’s this pervasive belief that if the economy hasn’t fallen apart by now it must be going the other way. The right way. Those are the only two options for mainstream analysis (which means it isn’t analysis).

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Germany, Maybe Europe: No Signs Of The Bottom

2020-01-19

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-01-19

For anyone thinking the global economy is turning around, it’s not the kind of thing you want to hear. Germany has been Ground Zero for this globally synchronized downturn. That’s where it began, meaning first showed up, all the way back at the start of 2018. Ever since, the German economy has been pulling Europe down into the economic abyss along with it, being ahead of the curve in signaling what was to come for the whole rest of the global...

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Not Abating, Not By A Longshot

2020-01-14

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-01-14

Since I advertised the release last week, here’s Mexico’s update to Industrial Production in November 2019. The level of production was estimated to have fallen by 1.8% from November 2018. It was up marginally on a seasonally-adjusted basis from its low in October.

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Global Headwinds and Disinflationary Pressures

2020-01-11

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-01-11

I’m going to go back to Mexico for the third day in a row. First it was imports (meaning Mexico’s exports) then automobile manufacturing and now Industrial Production. I’ll probably come back to this tomorrow when INEGI updates that last number for November 2019. For now, through October will do just fine, especially in light of where automobile production is headed (ICYMI, off the bottom of the charts).

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FX Daily, January 9: Animal Spirits Roar Back

2020-01-09

by Marc Chandler

2020-01-09

Overview: The S&P 500 recovered from a 10-day low to reach a new record high, which set the tone for the Asia Pacific and European markets today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped by the most in a month with the Nikkei's 2% advance leading the way. More broadly, the markets in Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, India, and Thailand all rose more than 1%.

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Lagarde Channels Past Self As To Japan Going Global

2019-12-14

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2019-12-14

As France’s Finance Minister, Christine Lagarde objected strenuously to Ben Bernanke’s second act. Hinted at in August 2010, QE2 was finally unleashed in November to global condemnation. Where “trade wars” fill media pages today, “currency wars” did back then. The Americans were undertaking beggar-thy-neighbor policies to unfairly weaken the dollar.

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You Will Never Bring It Back Up If You Have No Idea Why It Falls Down And Stays Down

2019-12-10

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2019-12-10

Friedman's Plucking Model of Trend-cycle Analysis

It wasn’t actually Keynes who coined the term “pump priming”, though he became famous largely for advocating for it. Instead, it was Herbert Hoover, of all people, who began using it to describe (or try to) his Reconstruction Finance Corporation. Hardly the do-nothing Roosevelt accused Hoover of being, as President, FDR’s predecessor was the most aggressive in American history to that point, economically speaking.

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FX Daily, December 09: China’s Steps-Up Import Substitution Strategy while USMCA Comes Down to the Wire

2019-12-09

by Marc Chandler

2019-12-09

The important week is off to a slow start. While the MSCI Asia Pacific benchmark extended its gains for a third session, European and US shares are struggling. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating its pre-weekend 1%+ rally, while US shares are trading heavier after rallying for the last three sessions.

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