Tag Archive: Germany

FX Daily, January 18: US is on Holiday, but the Dollar has Legs

2021-01-18

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2021-01-18

Overview: The new week has begun like last week ended.  Equities are a bit heavy.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the second session, its first back-to-back loss since before Christmas.  China and Hong Kong were the notable exceptions, perhaps helped by stronger than expected GDP. 

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FX Daily, January 15: The Greenback is Finishing the Week with a Firm Tone

2021-01-15

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2021-01-15

The US dollar is firm against most of the major and emerging market currencies today. Among the majors, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are resilient. For the week, sterling and the yen appear poised to eke out small gains, while the Scandi's are the weakest performers with around a 1% decline.

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FX Daily, January 7: Dollar Bounces after Insurrection Put Down

2021-01-07

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2021-01-07

Overview:  After the National Guard were called to put down an insurrection in Washington, DC, the dollar is having its best day in around a week.  The euro's three-day rally has been halted even though German factory orders surprised on the upside. 

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Seizing The Dirt Shirt Title

2021-01-06

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2021-01-06

China PMI, 2010-2020
In mid-December 2019, before the world had heard of COVID, China’s Central Economic Work Conference had released a rather startling statement for the world to consume. In the West, everything was said to be on the up. Central banks had responded, forcefully, many claimed, more than enough to deal with that year’s “unexpected” globally synchronized downturn.

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Meanwhile, Outside Today’s DC

2020-11-05

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2020-11-05

German Economy, 2012-2020
With all eyes on Washington DC, today, everyone should instead be focused on Europe. As we’ve written for nearly three years now, for nearly three years Europe has been at the unfortunate forefront of Euro$ #4. We could argue about whether coming out of GFC2 back in March pushed everything into a Reflation #4 – possible – or if this is still just one three-yearlong squeeze of a global dollar shortage.

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FX Daily, August 27: After much Build-Up, Could Powell be Anti-Climactic?

2020-08-27

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2020-08-27

The strong rally in US equities yesterday, with the fifth consecutive gain in the S&P 500 and a big outside up day in gold, failed to spur follow-through buying today. Asia Pacific equities were mixed. China, Australia, and India rose while most of the rest of the regional markets fell.

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It Was Bad In The Other Sense, So Now What?

2020-08-18

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2020-08-18

Japan Real GDP, 2008-2020
According to the latest figures, Japan has tallied 56,074 total coronavirus cases since the outbreak began, leading to the death of an estimated 1,103 Japanese citizens. Out of a total population north of 125 million, it’s hugely incongruous.

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Science of Sentiment: Zooming Expectations Wonder

2020-08-12

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2020-08-12

It had been an unusually heated gathering, one marked by temper tantrums and often publicly expressed rancor. Slamming tables, undiplomatic rudeness. Europe’s leaders had been brought together by the uncomfortable even dangerous fact that the economic dislocation they’ve put their countries through is going to sustain enormously negative pressures all throughout them. What would a “united” European system do to try and fill in this massive hole?The...

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Accusing the Accused of Excusing the Mountain of Evidence

2020-08-03

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2020-08-03

Germany Federal Securities, 2018-2020
Why not let the accused also sit in the jury box? The answer seems rather obvious. While maybe the truly honest man accused of a crime he did commit would vote for his own conviction, the world seems a bit short on supply of those while long and deep offering up practitioners of pure sophistry in their stead.

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A Japanese Stall?

2020-07-24

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2020-07-24

Japan PMIs, 2018-2020
In sharp contrast to the sentimental deference towards central bank stimulus exhibited by Germany’s ZEW, for example, similar Japanese surveys are starting to describe potential trouble developing. Like Germany, Japan is a bellwether country and a pretty reliable indicator of global economy performance.

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FX Daily, June 4: Risk Taking Pauses Ahead of the ECB

2020-06-04

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2020-06-04

Overview: After several days of aggressive risk-taking, investors are pausing ahead of the ECB meeting.  Equities were mostly higher in the Asia Pacific region, though China was mixed, and Indian shares slipped.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a five-day advance, and US shares are trading with a heavier bias. The S&P 500 gapped higher yesterday, and that gap (~3081-3099) offers technical support.

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FX Daily, May 15: Much Talk but Little Action

2020-05-15

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2020-05-15

Overview: The S&P 500 staged an impressive recovery yesterday, a sell-off that took it to its lowest level since April 21, to close more than 1% higher on the day, helped set the tone in the Far East and Europe today. Gains in most Asia Pacific markets, but Hong Kong, Shanghai, and India, trimmed this week's losses. Australia's 1.4% rally today managed to turn ASX positive for the week, extending leg up for a third consecutive week.

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The global economy doesn’t care about the ECB (nor any central bank)

2020-05-14

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2020-05-14

Europe Industrial Production, 1991-2020
The monetary mouse. After years of Mario Draghi claiming everything under the sun available with the help of QE and the like, Christine Lagarde came in to the job talking a much different approach. Suddenly, chastened, Europe’s central bank needed assistance. So much for “do whatever it takes.”They did it – and it didn’t take.Lagarde’s outreach was simply an act of admitting reality.

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FX Daily, May 6: The Euro is Knocked Back Further

2020-05-06

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2020-05-06

Overview:  The late sell-off in US stocks yesterday has not prevented gains in Asia and Europe.   Most of the equity markets, including the re-opening of China, gain more than 1%.  Australia was a notable exception, falling about 0.4%, and Taiwan was virtually flat.  European bourses opened higher but made little headway before some profit-taking set in, while US shares are trading higher. 

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FX Daily, May 5: German Court Adds to the Euro’s Woes

2020-05-05

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2020-05-05

Overview: The S&P 500 recovered yesterday after dipping trading below the 20-day moving average for the first time in a month.  The key area is the gap between the April 30 low (~2892.5) and the May 1 high (~2869). Oil reversed higher as well. June crude was off nearly 9% in the US morning and closed 7% higher on the day and above $21 for the first time since April 21, the day of negative oil prices.

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FX Daily, May 4: Monday Blues

2020-05-04

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2020-05-04

Overview:  The constructive mood among investors in April has given way to new concerns as May gets underway.  Japan and China are still on holiday, but most of the other markets in Asia fell, led by 4.5%-5.5% declines in Hong Kong and India, and more than 2% in most other local markets.  Australia bucked the trend a gained 1.4% after shedding 5% before the weekend. 

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The Greenspan Bell

2020-04-22

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2020-04-22

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey, 2006-2020
What set me off down the rabbit hole trying to chase modern money’s proliferation of products originally was the distinct lack of curiosity on the subject. This was the nineties, after all, where economic growth grew on trees. Reportedly. Why on Earth would anyone purposefully go looking for the tiniest cracks in the dam?

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FX Daily, March 23: Greenback Demand Not Satisfied by Swap Lines

2020-03-23

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2020-03-23

Overview: In HG Wells' "War of the Worlds," the common cold repelled a Martian invasion. Now, a novel coronavirus is disrupting everything and everywhere. Global equities continue to get hammered, though the apparent relative resilience of Japan may have spurred some buying of Japanese equities.

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Stagnation Never Looked So Good: A Peak Ahead

2020-03-21

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2020-03-21

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey, 2006-2020
Forward-looking data is starting to trickle in. Germany has been a main area of interest for us right from the beginning, and by beginning I mean Euro$ #4 rather than just COVID-19. What has happened to the German economy has ended up happening everywhere else, a true bellwether especially manufacturing and industry.

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