Tag Archive: Federal Reserve

Great Graphic: EMU Inflation Not Making it Easy for ECB

2018-03-31

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2018-03-31

Germany, Italy, Fance and Spain HICP, March 2012 - 2018
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is credited with being the first central bank to adopt a formal inflation target. Following last year's election, the central bank's mandate has been modified to include full employment. To be sure this was a political decision, and one that initially saw the New Zealand dollar retreat.

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Central Banks Care about the Gold Price – Enough to Manipulate it!

2018-03-30

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2018-03-30

Gold for Oil
In early March, RT.com, the Russian based media network, asked me for comments and opinion on the subject of central bank manipulation of gold prices. The comments and opinion that I supplied to RT became the article that RT then exclusively published on its website on 18 March under the title “Central banks manipulating & suppressing gold prices – industry expert to RT“. This article is now transcribed below, here on the BullionStar website.

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Cool Video: Bloomberg TV Clip on Central Banks

2018-01-11

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2018-01-11

Bloomberg Video
I joined Alix Steel and David Westin on the Bloomberg set earlier today. Click here for the link. In the roughly 2.5 minute clip, we talk about the US and and the monetary cycle in Europe. In the US, Q4 was another quarter of above trend growth. The Atlanta Fed says the economy is tracking 2.7%, while the NY Fed puts it at 4.0%.

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Chinese Are Not Tightening, Though They Would Be Thrilled If You Thought That

2017-12-22

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2017-12-22

RMB Money, Jan - Dec 2017
The PBOC has two seemingly competing objectives that in reality are one and the same. Overnight, China’s central bank raised two of its money rates. The rate it charges mostly the biggest banks for access to the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) was increased by 5 bps to 3.25%. In addition, its reverse repo interest settings were also moved up by 5 bps each at the various tenors (to 2.50% for the 7-day, 2.80% for the 28-day).

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A Gold Guy’s View Of Crypto, Bitcoin, And Blockchain

2017-12-20

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2017-12-20

Bitcoin Price, Oct - Dec 2017
Bitcoin was on my radar far back as 2011, but for years, I didn’t think much of it. It was a curiosity. Nothing more. Sort of like the virtual money you use in World of Warcraft or something. In 2015, looking deeper, I slowly (not the sharpest tool in the shed) arrived at that “aha” inflection point that most advocates of honest money arrive at. I realized that a distributed public ledger has the power to change, well, everything.

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Jim Grant: “Markets Trust Too Much In The Presence Of Central Banks”

2017-12-15

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2017-12-15

James Grant, Wall Street expert and editor of the renowned investment newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», warns of the unseen consequences of super low interest rate and questions the extraordinary actions of the Swiss National Bank. Nearly ten years after the financial crisis, extraordinary monetary policy has become the norm.

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Year-end Rate Hike Once Again Proves To Be Launchpad For Gold Price

2017-12-15

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2017-12-15

Year-end rate hike once again proves to be launchpad for gold price. FOMC follows through on much anticipated rate-hike of 0.25%. Spot gold responds by heading for biggest gain in three weeks, rising by over 1%. Final meeting for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Yellen does not expect Trump's tax-cut package to result in significant, strong growth for US economy. No concern for bitcoin which 'plays a very small role in the payment system'.

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FX Weekly Preview: FOMC and ECB Highlight Central Banks’ Last Meetings of the Year

2017-12-11

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2017-12-11

No fewer than thirteen central banks meet in the week ahead. The UK and the US report the latest inflation figures, and the US and eurozone report industrial production. The eurozone sees the flash PMI for December, and the Japan's latest Tankan business survey will be released.

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FX Weekly Preview: Events + Market = Potential for Combustible Price action

2017-11-27

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2017-11-27

There are a number of events and economic reports in the week ahead that will help shape the investment climate in the weeks and months ahead. In recognition of the importance of initial conditions, let's briefly summarize the performance of the dollar and main asset markets.

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FX Daily, November 22: Global Equity Rally Resumes, while Dollar Slips

2017-11-22

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2017-11-22

Global equities are on the march. US indices shrugged off their first back-to-back weekly decline in three months to set new record highs yesterday. The MSCI Asia-Pacific followed suit and recorded their highest close. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is struggling, as the CAC and DAX are nursing small losses.

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SNB: It’s A Bonfire Of The Absurdities

2017-11-21

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2017-11-21

Fire
This week’s letter will take a look at the growing number of ridiculous, inane, and otherwise nonsensical absurdities that fill the daily economic headlines. I have gone from the occasional smile to scratching my head now and then to “WTF” moments several times a week.

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FX Weekly Preview: Another Week that is Not about the Data

2017-11-20

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2017-11-20

The contours of the investment climate are unlikely to change based on next week's economic data from the US, Japan, or Europe. The state of the major economies continues to be well understood by investors. Growth in the US, EU, and Japan remains solid, and if anything above trend, as the year winds down.

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Can’t Hide From The CPI

2017-11-19

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2017-11-19

US Consumer Price Index, Jan 2016 - Oct 2017
On the vital matter of missing symmetry, consumer price indices across the world keep suggesting there remains none. Recoveries were called “V” shaped for a reason. Any economy knocked down would be as intense in getting back up, normal cyclical forces creating momentum for that to (only) happen. In the context of the past three years, symmetry is still nowhere to be found.

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The Savings Rate Conundrum

2017-11-08

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2017-11-08

Median Disposable Income and Debt Ratio, 1967 - 2015
The economy is booming. Employment is at decade lows. Unemployment claims are at the lowest levels in 40-years. The stock market is at record highs and climbing. Consumers are more confident than they have been in a decade. Wages are finally showing signs of growth.

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Political Economics

2017-10-28

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2017-10-28

US Real Gross Domestic Product, Jan 1993 - 2017
Who President Trump ultimately picks as the next Federal Reserve Chairman doesn’t really matter. Unless he goes really far afield to someone totally unexpected, whoever that person will be will be largely more of the same. It won’t be a categorical change, a different philosophical direction that is badly needed. Still, politically, it does matter to some significant degree. It’s just that the political division isn’t the usual R vs. D, left vs....

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Yawn

2017-10-24

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2017-10-24

When I wrote the update two weeks ago I said that we might be nearing the point of maximum optimism. Apparently, there is another gear for optimism in this market as stocks have just continued to slowly but surely reach for the sky.

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Global Inflation Continues To Underwhelm

2017-10-19

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2017-10-19

Another Side of China, Aug 2016 - Oct 2017
Chinese producer prices accelerated in September 2017, while consumer price increases slowed. The National Bureau of Statistics reported this weekend that China’s PPI was up 6.9% year-over-year, a quicker pace than the 6.3% estimated for August and a 5.5% rate in July. Earlier in the year producer prices were driven mostly by 2016’s oil rebound, along with those in the rest of the global economy, but in recent months there has been more influence...

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Central Bank Chiefs and Currencies

2017-10-18

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2017-10-18

Market opinion on the next Fed chief is very fluid. BOE Governor Carney sticks to view, but short-sterling curve flattens. New Bank of Italy Governor sought. A second term for Kuroda may be more likely after this weekend election.

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Brief Thoughts on the Euro

2017-10-14

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2017-10-14

Euro peaked a month ago. The reversal before the weekend marks the end of the leg lower. ECB meeting is next big focus. ECB may focus on gross rather than net purchases.

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Dollar Surge Continues Ahead Of Jobs Report; Europe Dips As Catalan Fears Return

2017-10-07

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2017-10-07

CBOE VIX Gauge, 1990 - 2019
World stocks eased back from record highs and fell for the first time in eight days, as jitters about Catalonia’s independence push returned while bets on higher U.S. interest rates sent the dollar to its highest since mid August; S&P 500 futures were modestly in the red - as they have been every day this week before levitating to record highs - ahead of hurricane-distorted nonfarm payrolls data (full preview here). U.S. jobs report will also be...

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