Tag Archive: Federal Reserve

The Inflation Tide is Turning!

In our post on January 28, 2021 “Gold, The Tried-and-True Inflation Hedge for What’s Coming!” we outlined four reasons that we expect higher inflation over the next several years.

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US Employment Data is Important but for the Millionth Time, Don’t Exaggerate It

Overview: Record high closes yesterday for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have done little to help global equities today.  Most of the Asia Pacific region markets, but Japan and Australia slipped ahead of the weekend while still holding on to gains for the week.

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Quantitative Easing: A Boon or Curse?

Central banks’ massive Quantitative Easing (QE) programs have come under scrutiny many times since the central banks fired up the printing press and began quantitative easing programs en masse after the 2008-09 Great Financial Crisis. However, the increase in central bank assets due to quantitative easing programs during the crisis pale in comparison to the QE programs during the Covid pandemic. As economies recovered after the...

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Printing Money in Times of Corona

The coronavirus has dominated all of our lives in recent months. Radical paths were taken by politicians in the form of lockdowns to contain the pandemic. But we should recognize that even if the coronavirus is a (major) challenge for us, we always have to keep a holistic view of world events.

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FX Daily, February 24: Equities Try to Stabilize and Low Short-Term Rates Help Keep the Dollar on the Defensive

Overview:  The sharp recovery in US shares yesterday that saw the S&P 500 snap a five-day slide failed to carry into Asia Pacific trading earlier today.  All the markets fell save India and Singapore.  Losses were led by a 3% drop in Hong Kong as the first increase in the stamp duty (financial transaction tax) since 1993 was announced (0.13% from 0.10%). 

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FX Daily, August 28: Optimism about Italy Creeps Back in but Sterling Heads the Opposite Way on Brexit Realities

The capital markets have turned quiet. There have been no more headline bombs about trade, and China set the dollar's reference rate much lower than projected. Asia Pacific equities were mixed. Hong Kong, China, India, and Singapore were on the downside, while Taiwan, Korea, and Australia rose.

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THE FED’S CAPITULATION: WHAT IT MEANS FOR GOLD INVESTORS

After the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy U-turn earlier this year and the central bank’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in a decade, mainstream investors and analysts believe that holding rates lower and for longer will help keep stock markets afloat and the economic expansion alive.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead is not about the Week Ahead

It's the last week of August. Several economic reports will be released in the coming days. They include the US deflator of consumer expenditures that the Federal Reserve targets, China's PMI, and the eurozone's preliminary August CPI. It is not that the data do not matter, but investors realize the die is cast.

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FX Daily, August 23: Market has Second Thoughts on Magnitude of Fed Cuts Ahead of Powell

Powell speech at Jackson Hole stands before the weekend.  Equities in Asia and Europe are finishing the week on a firm tone.  Most markets in the Asia Pacific region closed higher today, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-week slide.  European bourses are edging higher, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is poised to end its three-week air pocket.

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FX Daily, August 21: European Stocks Snap Back, Market Hopeful Italian Election can be Delayed

The end of the US equity three-day advance yesterday weighed on Asia Pacific shares today.  Most benchmarks fell.  Better than expected trade data helped Thailand buck the trend.  A firmer tone emerged in the European morning, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has recouped yesterday's losses and more.  It was led higher by consumer discretionary, energy, and industrials.

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FX Weekly Preview: A Vicious Cycle Grips Markets

The capital markets are in their own doom loop. Poor data from Germany and China, coupled with the escalation of the US-China trade dispute and rising tensions in Hong Kong spur concerns about the risks of a global recession. Interest rates are driven lower, and curves flatten or go inverted, spurring more concern about the outlook. The problem is that it is not clear how this vicious cycle ends.

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FX Weekly Preview: Macro Deterioration

The US-China tensions remain the dominant driver of investor risk appetites. President Trump has repeatedly accused China of manipulating its currency on twitter, and finally Treasury Secretary Mnuchiin acquiesced after China failed to prevent the dollar from rising above CNY7.0.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Dog Days of August are Upon Us

The die is cast. To defend the uneven expansion and ward off disinflationary forces, monetary authorities will provide more accommodation. The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut in more than a decade and stopped unwinding its balance sheet two months earlier than it previously indicated (worth $100 bln of additional buying of Treasuries and Agencies).

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FX Daily, August 1: Mid-Course Correction Sends Greenback Higher

Overview:  The Federal Reserve delivered the first rate cut since the Great Financial Crisis but couched it in terms of a mid-course correction rather than the start of a larger easing cycle.  By doing so, Fed chief Powell cast the cut in less dovish terms than the market expected and the reaction function of the market has been clear. 

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FX Weekly Preview: The FOMC and US Jobs Headline the Week Ahead

There is little doubt that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on July 31. We never thought the chances of a 50 bp move were anything but negligible, though even at this late stage, the market appears to be pricing in about a one-in-five chance.

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What Does It Mean That Real Estate, Not Equities, Is Driving Monetary Policy?

In the world of assets classes, I don’t believe it is equities which hold the Federal Reserve’s attention. After the 2006-11 debacle, the big bust, you can at least understand why policymakers might be more attuned to real estate no matter how the NYSE trades. It may be a decade ago, but that’s the one thing out of the Global Financial Crisis which was seared into the consciousness of everyone who lived through it.

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FX Weekly Preview: Highlights in the Week Ahead

Three events that will capture the market's attention next week: The consequences of the Japanese election, the first look at US Q1 GDP, and the ECB meeting. The central banks of Turkey and Russia also meet. Both are expected to cut interest rates, following rate cuts in the middle of last week by South Korea, Indonesia, and South Africa.

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FX Daily, July 19: Dollar Pares Losses as Market Partly Corrects Confusion of Magntiude and Timing of Fed

Overview: Comments underscoring the importance of acting preemptively by two Fed officials sent the dollar reeling and helped lift equities after the S&P fell to a two and a half week low. The decline in rates and the US shooting down of an Iranian drone in the Gulf helped spur gold to new six-year highs. There was some attempt to clarify the (NY Fed's) comments and the dollar has pared yesterday's losses.

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FX Daily, July 17: Back to the Well Again

Overview:  After slapping punitive tariffs on structural from China and Mexico last week, US President Trump threatened to end the tariff truce with China because it is not stepped up its purchases of US agriculture products.  Trump said the tariff freeze was in exchange for ag purchases, but at the time it seemed as if granting licenses to US companies to sell to Huawei was the quid pro quo.

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FX Weekly Preview: What to Watch if Fed and ECB are Committed to Easing

There is little doubt after the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's testimony last week and the FOMC minutes that a rate cut will be delivered at the end of the month. Similarly, after comments by several ECB officials and the record of their recent meetin.g confirms it too is prepared to adjust policy. The timing of the ECB's move is more debatable, an adjustment at the July 25 meeting appears to have increased.

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