Tag Archive: Euro

FX Weekly Review, April 10-14: Swiss Franc loses against the Yen, but wins against Dollar

2017-04-16

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01

Last week the Swiss Franc improved against both euro and dollar, but - compared to its safe-haven counterpart Japanese Yen - it had a bad performance. We expect strong SNB interventions.

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The Global Burden

2017-04-12

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-04-12

Bundesrepublik Deutscheland Finanzagentur GmbH (German Finance Agency) was created on September 19, 2000, in order to manage the German government’s short run liquidity needs. GFA took over the task after three separate agencies (Federal Ministry of Finance, Federal Securities Administration, and Deutsche Bundesbank) had previously shared responsibility for it.

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FX Weekly Review, April 03-08: Dollar Recovery Can Continue, 10-year Yield Set to Rise

2017-04-10

by George Dorgan

2017-04-10

The US dollar appreciated against most of the major currencies last week. The Japanese yen was the chief exception. It rose about 0.5% as US yields remained heavy and equities were mostly softer. The Dollar Index did not fall in any session last week. It has had one losing session over the past nine, and that was the last day in March when the Dollar Index slipped less than 0.1%. It finished the week a bit above thee 61.8% retracement objective of...

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Ultra-Loose Terminology, Not Policy

2017-04-08

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-04-08

As world “leaders” gathered in Davos in January 2016, they did so among financial turmoil that was creating more economic havoc than at any time since the Great “Recession.” Having seen especially US QE as the equivalent of money printing, their focus was drawn elsewhere to at least attempt an explanation for the contradiction.

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Euro Saves Germany, Slaughters the PIGS, & Feeds the BLICS

2017-04-06

by Chris Hamilton

2017-04-06

European Population vs. Total Europe Energy Consumption

The change in nations Core populations (25-54yr/olds) have driven economic activity for the later half of the 20th century, first upward and now downward. The Core is the working population, the family forming population, the child bearing population, the first home buying, and the credit happy primary consumer. Even a small increase (or contraction) in their quantity drives economic activity magnitudes beyond what the numbers would indicate.

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FX Weekly Review, March 27 – 31: Euro breaks down against USD and CHF

2017-04-02

by George Dorgan

2017-04-02

Weak inflation figures in the euro zone let the common currency fall against both the dollar and the Swiss franc. Still last week, the Swiss Franc index had some losses against the US dollar index.

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Blocher and the People That Ruined the EU

2017-03-30

by Konstantin Richter

2017-03-30

Last weekend, European leaders gathered in Rome for the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. They discussed, not for the first time, how to get the EU back on track. And they told each other they are still committed to the Union and believe in its future. (We’ve heard that one before, too.)

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FX Weekly Review, March 20 – March 25: Dollar Bottom Near?

2017-03-26

by George Dorgan

2017-03-26

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, 1m

In the last week, the Swiss Franc index recovered and gained about 2%. The dollar index lost 1.5%. Position adjustments: The dollar tended to trade heaviest against those currencies that speculators were short, like the euro, yen, and sterling.

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FX Weekly Review, March 13 – March 18: Fed Disappoints, Dollar Losses

2017-03-19

by George Dorgan

2017-03-19

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 18

The failure of the Fed to signal an increased pace of normalization and the prospects of other central banks raising rates spurred dollar losses, which deteriorated its technical outlook.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2017-03-13

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-03-13

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates again at their meeting next week. They obviously view the recent cyclical upturn as being durable and the inflation data as pointing to the need for higher rates. Our market based indicators agree somewhat but nominal and real interest rates are still below their mid-December peaks so I don’t think a lot has changed.

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FX Weekly Review, March 06 – March 11: CHF loses against the euro

2017-03-12

by George Dorgan

2017-03-12

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 11

The Swiss Franc lost this week in particular against the euro, given that Mario Draghi was less dovish than expected. If the stronger euro is driven only by speculators, or also by "real money" (investments in cash, bonds, stocks) will be visible in Monday's sight deposits release.

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FX Weekly Review, February 27 – March 04: Dramatic Shift in Fed Expectations Spurs Dollar Gains, but Now What?

2017-03-05

by George Dorgan

2017-03-05

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 04

The pendulum of market sentiment swung hard and fast toward a Fed rate hike in the middle of March. The signals from Fed officials, including Governor Brainard and Powell, spurred the move. According to Bloomberg, the market had discounted a 90% chance of a hike before Yellen and Fischer spoke. A week ago, Bloomberg calculations showed a 40% chance of a move.

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Economic Dissonance, Too

2017-03-04

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-03-04

Germany Industrial Production, SA 1997-2016

Germany is notoriously fickle when it comes to money, speaking as much of discipline in economy or industry as central banking. If ever there is disagreement about monetary arrangements, surely the Germans are behind it. Since ECB policy only ever attains the one direction, so-called accommodation, there never seems to be harmony.

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FX Weekly Review, February 20 – 25: Ranges in FX: Respect the Price Action

2017-02-26

by George Dorgan

2017-02-26

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, February 25

It is difficult right now to talk about the foreign exchange market using the dollar as the numeraire. The dollar was stronger against most of the major currencies last week, but not the yen or sterling. The Dollar Index itself was little changed, rising less than 0.15%.

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FX Weekly Review, February 13 – 18: Why still long the dollar?

2017-02-19

by George Dorgan

2017-02-19

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc

Arguments for being long the dollar: FX investors because of the difference in monetary policy (e.g. higher US rates), Bond investors long US Bonds because higher bond yields, On the other side, European and Swiss equities are not so much overvalued as U.S. stocks are.

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What Will Trump Do About The Central-Bank Cartel?

2017-02-14

by Thorsten Polleit

2017-02-14

Euro Banks find it increasingly hard to obtain US dollar credit

The US is by far the biggest economy in the world. Its financial markets — be it equity, bonds or derivatives markets — are the largest and most liquid. The Greenback is the most important transaction currency. Many currencies in the world — be it the euro, the Chinese renminbi, the British pound or the Swiss franc — have actually been built upon the US dollar.

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Here Are The Best Hedges Against A Le Pen Victory

2017-02-13

by Tyler Durden

2017-02-13

On Friday, after it emerged that as part of Marine Le Pen's strategic vision for France, should she win, is a return to the French franc as well as redenomination of some €1.7 billion in French (non-international law) bonds, both rating agencies and economists sounded the alarm, warning it would "amount to the largest sovereign default on record, nearly 10 times larger than the €200bn Greek debt restructuring in 2012, threatening chaos to the world...

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FX Weekly Review, February 06 – 11: Further Dollar and CHF Strength versus Euro weakness ahead?

2017-02-12

by George Dorgan

2017-02-12

We are expecting a further strengthening of both dollar and Swiss Franc against the euro over the next 3 months. Reason is the rising Swiss demand the continued dovishness of the ECB, despite rising inflation.

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FX Weekly Review, January 30 – February 04: Reversal of Trump Reflation Trade Continues

2017-02-05

by George Dorgan

2017-02-05

The Swiss Franc index remained around the 2% gain that for the last month, the recovery from the Trump reflation trade. In this trade, investors preferred U.S. against European stocks. This tendency, however, is reversing now - and with it the franc recovered.

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ECB Assets Rise Above 36 percent Of Eurozone GDP; Draghi Now Owns 10.2 percent Of European Corporate Bonds

2017-01-31

by Tyler Durden

2017-01-31

The ECB's nationalization of the European corporate bond sector continues. In the ECB's latest update, the six central banks acting on behalf of the Euro system provided an update on the list of corporate bonds they bought. They bought into 810 issuances with a total of €573bn in amount outstanding.

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