Tag Archive: $EUR

FX Daily, May 10: Markets Adjust to North Korean Threat, Fifth Fall in US Oil Inventories and Trump Drama

2017-05-10

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2017-05-10

Investors absorbed a few developments that might have been disruptive for the markets with little fanfare. North Korea's ambassador to the UK warned that his country would go ahead with its sixth nuclear test, as South Korea elected a new president who wants to reduce tensions on the peninsula.

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FX Daily, May 09: Dollar Firms amid Position Adjustments

2017-05-09

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2017-05-09

The election of Macron as French President has set off a bout of position adjustment that has seen the euro push back into the $1.0850-$1.0950 range that had confined activity for the two weeks between the first and second rounds of the French presidential election.

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FX Daily, May 08: Euro Bought on Rumor, Sold on Fact

2017-05-08

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2017-05-08

The euro initially opened higher in Asia following confirmation that Macron was elected the next president of France, but quickly fell below $1.0960 before bouncing back toward $1.10 only to be sold again in early Europe below the pre-weekend low near $1.0950. A break now of $1.0930 could signal a return to the lower end of the range seen since the first round of the French election near $1.0850-$1.0870.

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FX Weekly Preview: Dollar Drivers

2017-05-08

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2017-05-08

US retail sales and CPI should help bolster confidence that the Fed was right about the transitory nature of Q1 slowdown. Bank of England meets; Forbes will likely continue with her dissent, but likely failed to convince her other colleagues of the merit of an immediate rate hike. French politics are center stage, but German state election and South Korea's national election are also important.

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FX Daily, May 04: Greenback Struggles to Sustain Upticks, Though Odds of June Hike Rise

2017-05-04

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2017-05-04

The US dollar is struggling to maintain even modest upticks against the euro and sterling despite the recognition of the increased likelihood of a June Fed hike. Bloomberg sees current pricing in the Fed funds as making a hike in June a near certainty (97.5%), while the CME and our own calculation estimates the market is discounting around 70%-75% chance of a hike.

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FX Daily, May 03: Marking Time

2017-05-03

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2017-05-03

The global capital markets are relatively calm. Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong markets are closed for national holidays. Investors await the FOMC statement, though expectations could not be much lower. The disappointing US auto sales, and poor Apple sales figures reported yesterday have had little impact on the broader investment climate.

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Euro Drivers

2017-05-03

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2017-05-03

Correlation between the change in the US-German two-year differential and euro remains robust. The German two-year yield has jumped in recent weeks but looks poised to slip back lower. US two-year yield has eased but is knocking on 1.30%, an important level.

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FX Daily, May 02: Dollar and Yen Heavy, Equities Trade Higher and Bonds Lower

2017-05-02

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2017-05-02

The US dollar is sporting a softer profile against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The Japanese yen is the main exception. The greenback is rising against the yen for the fourth session and the sixth of the past seven. The dollar's gains against the yen coincide with the 10-12 bp recovery in the US 10-year yields over the past ten sessions.

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FX Daily, May 01: May Day Calm

2017-05-01

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2017-05-01

Many financial centers are closed for May. Japanese markets were open today, but will be closed for three sessions beginning Wednesday for the Golden Week celebrations. The US dollar is narrowly mixed.

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FX Weekly Preview: Looking Through the FOMC Meeting as it Looks Past Poor Q1 GDP

2017-05-01

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2017-05-01

US jobs and auto sales data may be more important than the FOMC meeting. Norway and Australia's central bank meets. Neither is expected to change policy. All three large countries that reported Q1 GDP figures last week - US, UK, France - disappointed expectations.

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FX Daily, April 28: Markets Limp into Month End

2017-04-28

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2017-04-28

Equity markets are stalling into the end of the month. MSCI Asia-Pacific Index is snapping a six-day advance, and the week's gain was sufficient to extend the advancing streak for the fourth consecutive month. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is trading off for the second consecutive session, after rallying for six consecutive sessions.

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Draghi Does Nothing and Talks about It

2017-04-27

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2017-04-27

Draghi confirms rate on hold and maintains easing bias. Growth risks are becoming more balanced. Inflation has yet to get on a sustained upward path.

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FX Daily, April 26: Dollar Stabilizes Ahead of Trump and ECB

2017-04-26

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2017-04-26

The US dollar was marked down in response to the French election and saw some follow through selling yesterday, but the momentum had slowed, and now it is stalled. The greenback is posting upticks against nearly all the major currencies. There is a good reason to be cautious.

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FX Daily, April 25: Euro Consolidates Gains, Bond Market Sell-Off Continues

2017-04-25

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2017-04-25

The US dollar is again at the fulcrum of the foreign exchange market. The dollar-bloc currencies are under pressure, along with the Japanese yen, while the European complex is posting modest gains. The euro is consolidating in the half cent below $1.09. Yesterday's marked up in early Asia saw the euro complete the 61.8% retracement of the losses since the US election, which was found near $1.0935

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FX Daily, April 24: Dramatic Response to French Election

2017-04-24

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2017-04-24

The results of the first round of the French election spurred a dramatic response in the capital markets. Our thesis that there is no populist-nationalist wave sweeping the world is supported by the previous results in Austria, the Netherlands, and now France.

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FX Weekly Preview: Politics and Economics in the Week Ahead

2017-04-24

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2017-04-24

Provided Le Pen and Macron or Fillion make to the second round, the market response to the French election results may be short lived. BOJ, Riksbank and ECB meetings. Spending authorization and some announcement from the White House on tax policy are in focus as Trump's 100th day in office approaches.

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State of Dollar Bull Market

2017-04-22

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2017-04-22

The dollar market is intact, despite the pullback here at the start of 2017. We have seen similar pullbacks in 2016 and 2015. Divergence remains the key driver.

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FX Daily, April 20: Dollar and Yen Push Lower

2017-04-20

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2017-04-20

With the exception of the yen, the US dollar is lower against all the major currencies. US Treasury yields are firm, extending yesterday's rise a little. This may help keep the dollar straddling JPY109, but unwinding long yen cross positions is helping underpin the other major currencies. The Dollar Index is making a new low for the week and appears poised to test support around 98.85-99..00.

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May’s Early Election Bid Sends Sterling on Roller Coaster

2017-04-20

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2017-04-20

May calls snap election for June 8. Tories running 20 percent point lead over Labour. Next election would be in 2022, after the Brexit negotiations conclude.

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