Tag Archive: $EUR

FX Daily, December 12: UK Front and Center, but Sterling is Laggard in Today’s Move Against the Dollar

2017-12-12

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2017-12-12

The US dollar is trading with a lower bias against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The upside surprise in Sweden's inflation is helped the krona recover from its recent slide. It is the strongest of the majors, gaining 1.1% against the dollar and nearly as much against the euro, which is in a third of a cent range below $1.18.

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FX Daily, December 11: Dollar Mixed to Start the Week, While Equities Firm

2017-12-11

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2017-12-11

The US dollar is narrowly mixed in relatively quiet activity. Year-end adjustment is well underway, and the news stream is light to start the week that sees more than a dozen central bank meetings. There is little doubt in the market that the Federal Reserve will hike rates for the third time this year at mid-week.

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FX Daily, December 08: Brexit Talks Move to Stage II, While Greenback Remains Firm

2017-12-08

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2017-12-08

Sufficient progress will be judged to have been made, and negotiations of the separation between the UK and EU will be allowed to enter the second stage. The formal decision will be made at next week's EU summit. To be sure, "sufficient progress," which the diplomatic-speak that does not mean that any agreement has really been reached, but rather that the UK has made a few concessionary signals.

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Great Graphic: Euro Pushes below November Uptrend

2017-12-07

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2017-12-07

EUR BGN Currency
Euro is lower for the third day, the longest downdraft in a month and a half. It violated the November uptrend. It is testing the $1.1800 area, which houses a few technical levels (retracement, moving average and congestion).

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FX Daily, December 06: Equity Slump Continues, Lifts Bonds, Bolsters Yen

2017-12-06

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2017-12-06

The swoon in equities, perhaps sparked by a rotation spurred by potential US tax changes, is continuing today. It is providing a risk-off mood, which is expressed in the foreign exchange market as a stronger yen. The most compelling answer of yen strength is not that investors are buying yen as a haven.

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FX Daily, December 05: Sterling Sold on Negotiating Snafu, Aussie Bounces on Retail Sales and RBA

2017-12-05

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2017-12-05

The US dollar is confined to narrow ranges against the euro and yen, straddling unchanged levels in the Asian session and the European morning. The action in elsewhere. The British pound is the weakest of the majors, paring 0.4% against the greenback, though around $1.3425, it can hardly be considered weak. A month ago, sterling was a few cents lower. Still, its gains reflected two things: broader dollar weakness and optimism on Brexit talks.

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FX Daily, December 04: US Dollar Marked Higher After Senate Passes Tax Reform

2017-12-04

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2017-12-04

The US dollar opened higher in Asia and retained those gains through the European morning. The greenback has recouped most of the pre-weekend losses recorded in the wake of the indictment of a fourth former Trump Administration official by the special investigation into Russia's involvement in last year's election. However, two weekend developments seemed to blunt the impact of the guilty plea and admission of cooperation.

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FX Daily, November 30: US Dollar Comes Back Bid, but Brexit Hopes Underpin Sterling

2017-11-30

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2017-11-30

The US dollar is broadly firmer. The rise in US yields yesterday has seen the greenback extend its recovery against the yen. It briefly pushed through JPY112.40, after dipping below JPY111.00 at the start of the week, for the first time since mid-September. Since the end of last week, been capped at the 200-day moving average against the yen, found near JPY111.70, but yesterday it pushed past. There are nearly $1 bln of options struck between...

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FX Daily, November 29: Sterling Charges Ahead on Brexit Hopes

2017-11-29

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2017-11-29

Prospects of a deal with the EU has sent sterling to its best level in two months against the dollar. It reached $1.3430 in early European turnover. It had sunk to nearly $1.3220 yesterday as European markets were closing, which was a four-day low. It is the strongest of the major currencies today, gaining about 0.4%. With today's gains has met our retracement target near $1.3415. The momentum appears to give it potential toward $1.3500 in the...

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FX Daily, November 28: Greenback Ticks Up in Cautious Activity

2017-11-28

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2017-11-28

The US dollar is consolidating its recent losses with a small upside bias. What promises to be an eventful week has begun with the Bank of England stress test and the publication of the Fed's Powell prepared remarks for his confirmation hearing to succeed Yellen as Chair. Unlike last year, this year's BOE stress test saw all seven banks pass.

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FX Daily, November 27: Slow Start to Busy Week

2017-11-27

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2017-11-27

The US dollar is narrowly mixed and is largely consolidating last week's losses as the market waits for this week's numerous events that may impact the investment climate. These include the likelihood of the US Senate vote on tax reform, preliminary eurozone November CPI, a vote of confidence (or lack thereof) in the deputy PM in Ireland, Powell's confirmation hearing as Yellen's successor, the BOE financial stability report, and stress test, and...

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Great Graphic: Is that a Potential Head and Shoulders Pattern in the Euro?

2017-11-25

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2017-11-25

EUR/BGN Currency
The euro is breaking out to the upside. The measuring objective is near $1.2150, which is near the 50% retracement of the euro's drop from the mid-2014 high. Key caveat: It is about the upper Bollinger Band and rate differentials make it the most expensive to hold since the late 1990s.

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FX Daily Rates, November 24: Euro Continues to Push Higher

2017-11-24

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2017-11-24

The euro is edging higher to trade at its best levels since the middle of last month. It is drawing closer to the $1.1880 area, which if overcome, could point to return to the year's high seen in early September near $1.2100. There is a combination of factors lifting the euro. The recent data, including yesterday's flash PMI, suggests that the regional economy is re-accelerating here in Q4.

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German Politics: What’s Next?

2017-11-23

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2017-11-23

Coalition talks will resume in the coming days, and failing this a minority government is more likely than new elections. The is a general agreement among the political elites, and a hubris of small differences. The rate differentials and cross currency swaps show the incentive structure for holding dollars is increasing.

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FX Daily, November 21: Dollar Marks Time

2017-11-21

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2017-11-21

The US dollar has largely been confined to yesterday's trading ranges against the major currencies amid light news. The North American session does not hold much hope for fresh impetus. The US reports October existing home sales, which are not typically market moving in the best of times. Yellen does not speak until after the markets close, and even then is unlikely to sway expectations, which have priced in a rate hike next month.

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FX Daily, November 20: German Political Impasse Roils Euro…Briefly

2017-11-20

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2017-11-20

News that the attempt to forge a four-party coalition in Germany collapsed Sunday saw the euro marked down in early Asian activity. The euro fell to nearly $1.1720 in the immediate response to the news, stabilized before turning higher in early European turnover. It quickly recovered and poked through $1.1800. The pre-weekend high was seen near $1.1820.

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FX Weekly Preview: Another Week that is Not about the Data

2017-11-20

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2017-11-20

The contours of the investment climate are unlikely to change based on next week's economic data from the US, Japan, or Europe. The state of the major economies continues to be well understood by investors. Growth in the US, EU, and Japan remains solid, and if anything above trend, as the year winds down.

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Great Graphic: Euro Approaching Key Test

2017-11-19

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2017-11-19

EUR/BGN Currency
Euro is testing trendline and retracement objective and 100-day moving average. Technical indicators on daily bar charts warn of upside risk. Two-year rate differentials make it expensive to be long euros vs. US. Beware of small samples that may exaggerate seasonality.

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FX Daily, November 16: Euro Extends Pullback

2017-11-16

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2017-11-16

After rising to its best level since October 20, the euro reversed direction yesterday and has extended its pullback today. The unexpected tick up in US core CPI and better than expected retail sales may have helped spur the euro losses after three cent run-up over the past several sessions. There bearish candlestick (shooting star) leaves the late euro longs in weak hands.

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