Tag Archive: EUR/USD

FX Weekly Review, March 06 – March 11: CHF loses against the euro

2017-03-12

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 11

The Swiss Franc lost this week in particular against the euro, given that Mario Draghi was less dovish than expected. If the stronger euro is driven only by speculators, or also by "real money" (investments in cash, bonds, stocks) will be visible in Monday's sight deposits release.

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FX Weekly Review, February 27 – March 04: Dramatic Shift in Fed Expectations Spurs Dollar Gains, but Now What?

2017-03-05

by George Dorgan

2017-03-05

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 04

The pendulum of market sentiment swung hard and fast toward a Fed rate hike in the middle of March. The signals from Fed officials, including Governor Brainard and Powell, spurred the move. According to Bloomberg, the market had discounted a 90% chance of a hike before Yellen and Fischer spoke. A week ago, Bloomberg calculations showed a 40% chance of a move.

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FX Weekly Review, February 20 – 25: Ranges in FX: Respect the Price Action

2017-02-26

by George Dorgan

2017-02-26

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, February 25

It is difficult right now to talk about the foreign exchange market using the dollar as the numeraire. The dollar was stronger against most of the major currencies last week, but not the yen or sterling. The Dollar Index itself was little changed, rising less than 0.15%.

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FX Weekly Review, February 13 – 18: Why still long the dollar?

2017-02-19

by George Dorgan

2017-02-19

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc

Arguments for being long the dollar: FX investors because of the difference in monetary policy (e.g. higher US rates), Bond investors long US Bonds because higher bond yields, On the other side, European and Swiss equities are not so much overvalued as U.S. stocks are.

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FX Weekly Review, February 06 – 11: Further Dollar and CHF Strength versus Euro weakness ahead?

2017-02-12

by George Dorgan

2017-02-12

We are expecting a further strengthening of both dollar and Swiss Franc against the euro over the next 3 months. Reason is the rising Swiss demand the continued dovishness of the ECB, despite rising inflation.

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FX Weekly Review, January 30 – February 04: Reversal of Trump Reflation Trade Continues

2017-02-05

by George Dorgan

2017-02-05

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 1M

The Swiss Franc index remained around the 2% gain that for the last month, the recovery from the Trump reflation trade. In this trade, investors preferred U.S. against European stocks. This tendency, however, is reversing now - and with it the franc recovered.

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FX Weekly Review, January 23 – 28: Dollar Downwards and CHF Upwards Correction, for how long?

2017-01-29

by George Dorgan

2017-01-29

US Dollar/Swiss Franc FX Spot Rate, January 21

The US dollar spent the first month of the new year correcting lower after a strong advance in the last several months of 2016. We argue that the correction actually began in mid-December following the Federal Reserve's rate hike.

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FX Weekly Review, January 16 – 21: Dollar Still Appears to Carving out a Bottom

2017-01-22

by George Dorgan

2017-01-22

The US dollar turned in a mixed performance over the past week. The technical indicators continue to support our expectation that after correcting since mid-December, following the Fed's hike, the dollar is basing.

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FX Weekly Review, January 09 – 14: Dollar Correction may be Over or Nearly So

2017-01-15

by Marc Chandler

2017-01-15

US Dollar/Swiss Franc FX Spot Rate, December 30

For the first week since the election of Trump, the Swiss Franc index had a clearly better performance than the dollar index. It improved by 1.5% in the last ten days.

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FX Weekly Review, January 02 – 07: Is the corrective phase of the dollar over?

2017-01-08

by Marc Chandler

2017-01-08

The lack of full participation and the resulting choppy conditions may have obscured the signal from the capital markets. That signal we think was one of correction since shortly after the Fed's rate hike in id-December. The question now, after the US employment data showed continued labor market strength and that earnings improvement remains intact, is whether the corrective phase is over.

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FX Weekly Review, December 26 – 30: Dollar Correction Poised to Continue

2017-01-02

by Marc Chandler

2017-01-02

The technical condition of the US dollar, which has been advancing through most of the Q4 16, has been deteriorating This led us to anticipate a consolidative or corrective phase.

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FX Weekly Review, December 19 – December 23: Assessment of the Dollar’s Technical Condition

2016-12-26

by George Dorgan

2016-12-26

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, December 23

The small adjustment to Fed’s anticipated path for the Fed funds target helped lift the US dollar to its highest level against the euro since 2003, and to ten-month highs against the Japanese yen. The graph shows that the dollar has improved by 25% against the euro, but only by 10% against CHF over the last 3 years.

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FX Weekly Review, December 12 – December 16: Fed Lifts Dollar, but Consolidation may be on Tap

2016-12-18

by George Dorgan

2016-12-18

USD/CHF compared to USD/EUR, 2011-2016 US Dollar Swiss Franc Euro

FX Weekly Review, December 05 – December 09: Dollar Bulls Running Out of Time to See Parity vs Euro in 2016

2016-12-11

by George Dorgan

2016-12-11

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, December 02

Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc index remained in a losing position compared to the dollar index. However since November 25, it has remained stable. Given that the ECB extended the QE period, the EUR/CHF has fallen to 1.0730 again. USD/CHF The US dollar is finishing the year on a firm note. It rose … Continue reading »

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FX Weekly Review, November 28 – December 02: CHF Index still at its 4% loss since U.S. Elections

2016-12-04

by George Dorgan

2016-12-04

The Swiss Franc index continued around its 4% loss since the U.S. elections, while the US Dollar index had a 4% increase. The focus shifts to the ECB meeting, where participants are wary of a "hawkish ease".

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L’Allemagne est le patron-sponsor de l’Eurosystem.

2016-11-25

by Liliane Held-Khawam

2016-11-25

Lors des échanges commerciaux et interbancaires, il y a des banques émettrices de monnaie et vis-à-vis une banque réceptrice. Normalement, à la fin de la journée, tout cela devrait être ramené à l’équilibre. Ceci n’est plus le cas depuis la crise américaine de 2007 (subprimes) comme nous le voyons sur le graphique ci-dessous de quelques pays de la zone euro.

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FX Weekly Review, November 14 – November 18: Best Dollar Weeks since Reagan

2016-11-20

by George Dorgan

2016-11-20

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, November 18, 2016

The US dollar has recorded its best two-week performance since Reagan was President. The weeks after Trump's election continue to see a weakening of the Swiss Franc, while the dollar index is on a steady rise. Still both the euro and the yen have seen worse performance than the Swiss Franc. The euro is currently under 1.07.

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FX Weekly Review, November 07 – November 11: The Trump Reflation Trade

2016-11-13

by George Dorgan

2016-11-13

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, November 04, 2016

The Swiss Franc Index rose sharply, shortly after the U.S. elections. But then the Trump reflation trade came. Trump may fulfills the wet dreams of many economists. With tax cuts he might extend the U.S. fiscal deficit up to 10% per year. This resulted in: Gains on U.S. stocks, inflows in U.S. Bonds, inflation hedges gold and Swiss Francs.

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FX Weekly Review, October 31 – November 04: Dollar at Crossroads

2016-11-06

by George Dorgan

2016-11-06

Swiss Franc Currency Index As visible in the graph, the Swiss Franc index recovered most of its losses against the US Dollar Index for the last 30 days. In the last 30 days, both the USD currency index and the CHF currency index have had a positive performance.

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FX Weekly Review, October 24-28: October Surprise Pushes Open Door

2016-10-30

by George Dorgan

2016-10-30

Swiss Franc Currency Index, October 22 2016

The Swiss Franc Index could recover some of the losses as compared to the US dollar index. Still the USD/CHF remains above 0.99. The US dollar rose against most of the major currencies last week, but the upside momentum appeared to be dissipating, even before the FBI's announcement about new Clinton emails. There are a few exceptions like the greenback's performance against the Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona. The dollar made new...

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