Tag Archive: EUR/USD

Eurodollar Futures: Powell May Figure It Out Sooner, He Won’t Have Any Other Choice

For Janet Yellen, during her somewhat brief single term she never made the same kind of effort as Ben Bernanke had. Her immediate predecessor, Bernanke, wanted to make the Federal Reserve into what he saw as the 21st century central bank icon. Monetary policy wouldn’t operate on the basis of secrecy and ambiguity. Transparency became far more than a buzzword.

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Further consolidation of EUR/USD rate likely

Short-term noise means we are neutral on the euro over the next three months, but see potential for its gradual appreciation against the dollar thereafterWe have long argued that growth and interest rate differentials are two key components for the direction of the US dollar. Both these drivers should continue to support the dollar over the short term.

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Make Your Case, Jay

June 13 sticks out for both eurodollar futures as well as IOER. On the surface, there should be no bearing on the former from the latter. They are technically unrelated; IOER being a current rate applied as an intended money alternative. Eurodollar futures are, as the term implies, about where all those money rates might fall in the future. Still, the eurodollar curve inverted conspicuously starting June 13. That was the day of the prior “rate...

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Downslope CPI

Cushing, OK, delivered what it could for the CPI. The contribution to the inflation rate from oil prices was again substantial in August 2018. The energy component of the index gained 10.3% year-over-year, compared to 11.9% in July. It was the fourth straight month of double digit gains.

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Europe Starting To Reckon Eurodollar Curve

We’ve been here before. Economists and central bankers become giddy about the prospects for success, meaning actual recovery. For that to happen, reflation must first attain enough momentum. If it does, as is always forecast, reflation becomes recovery. The world then moves off this darkening path toward the unknown crazy.

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A trying time for euro

The euro has hit new lows against the US dollar. We are revising down our EUR/USD projections for the next few months.The euro broke to the downside from its tight trading range relative to the US dollar since the end of May. These new lows go against our expectations of a gradual appreciation of the single currency relative to the greenback in the second half of the year and indicate that we have underestimated the short-term risks related to the...

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Euro, Yen, and Equities: Reviewed

US equities and the dollar appear to be moving higher together.  The greenback is near its best level this year against most of the major and emerging market currencies.  The Chinese yuan is not an exception to this generalization.  At the same time, the S&P 500 is at its best levels since the downdraft February, and the NASDAQ set a new record high earlier in the week. 

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Greenback Corrects Lower

The consensus narrative is that with rising inflation it is understandable that next week's meeting is live and that the confirmation of such has lifted the euro to ten-day highs, dragging the dollar broadly.  However, to accept this is to accept the debasement of language.  Until now, we dubbed central bank meeting that could result in action as "live."  For example, given that the Fed has not changed interest rates since the hiking cycle began in...

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 04/06/2018 – USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, WTI

The USDCHF pair managed to break 0.9850 level and closed the daily candlestick below it, which supports the continuation of our bearish overview efficiently in the upcoming period, paving the way to head towards 0.9723 level as a next station, noting that the EMA50 supports the expected decline, which will remain valid for today conditioned by the price stability below 0.9870.

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What Happened Monday?

Italian politics dominated Monday's activity. Initially, the euro reacted positively in Asia to news that the Italian President had blocked the proposed finance minister. A technocrat government would be appointed to prepare for new elections.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 21/05/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair reaches the key support 0.9955 now, and as we mentioned in our last report, breaking this level will confirm completing the double top pattern that appears on the chart, to rally towards our negative targets that begin at 0.9900 and extend to 0.9850. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, unless the price managed to rally upwards to breach 1.0055 level and...

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 14/05/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair provided positive trading yesterday to test 1.0000 level and settles around it, and as long as the price is below this level, our bearish overview will remain valid, noting that our next target is located at 0.9900, while breaching 1.0000 followed by 1.0055 levels represent the key to regain the main bullish trend again. Expected trading range for today is between 0.9920 support and 1.0055 resistance.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 07/05/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold

The USDCHF pair’s recent trades are confined within mew minor bearish channel that we believe it forms bullish flag pattern, thus, the price needs to breach 1.0035 to activate the positive effect of this pattern followed by rallying towards our waited target at 1.0100. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend supported by the EMA50, unless we witnessed clear break and hold below 1.0000. Expected trading range for today is between...

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 23/04/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, WTI oil futures

The USDCHF pair touched the bullish channel’s resistance that appears on the chart, and the price might be forced to show some temporary decline to test the support base formed above 0.9790 before resuming the rise again. In general, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend supported by the EMA50, depending on the organized trading inside the mentioned bullish channel, noting that our next target is located at 0.9900, while holding above...

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Understanding the Latest International Reserve Figures

At the end of every quarter, the IMF publishes the most authoritative reserve data with a three-month lag. On Good Friday, the IMF published Q4 17 reserve holdings. A recent article on Bloomberg played up an economist's forecast that euro reserves would increase by $500 bln over the next couple of years. A review of the reserve data may help us evaluate such a claim, which if true, could have important implications for international investors.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 26/03/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair provided negative trades after 0.9488 proved its strength against the recent positive attempts, to keep the bearish trend scenario valid efficiently in the upcoming period, supported by the EMA50 that pushes negatively on the price, waiting to test 0.9373 initially.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 19/03/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair leaned well on 0.9488 level to resume its positive trading, on its way towards our first waited target at 0.9581, as the price moves inside bullish channel that appears on the above chart, supported by the EMA50 that protects trading inside this channel, noting that breaching the targeted level will extend the pair’s gains to reach 0.9675.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 12/03/2018 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold

The USDCHF pair traded negatively yesterday to break 0.9488 and settles below it, which stops the positive effect of the recently mentioned bullish pattern and push the price to decline again, targeting heading towards 0.9373 initially.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 05/03/2018 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, AUDUSD

The USDCHF pair shows sideways trading around the EMA50, noticing that the EMA50 shows clear negative signals on the four hours’ time frame, while the price settles below the intraday bullish channel’s support line that appears on the chart.

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Market Efficiency? The Euro is Looking Forward to the Weekend!

As I have shown in previous issues of Seasonal Insights, various financial instruments are demonstrating peculiar behavior in the course of the week: the S&P 500 Index is typically strong on Tuesdays, Gold on Fridays and Bitcoin on Tuesdays (similar to the S&P 500 Index). Several readers have inquired whether currencies exhibit such patterns as well. Are these extremely large markets also home to such statistical anomalies, or is market efficiency...

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