Tag Archive: EUR/CHF

FX Daily, September 13: Sterling Shines While Euro Stalls in Front of $1.20

2017-09-13

by

2017-09-13

The next leg of the business trip takes me to Frankfurt. Sporadic updates will continue. We have been identifying the $1.3430 area is a reasonable technical target for sterling. It represents the 50% retracement of sterling's losses since the day of the referendum June 2016 when it briefly traded $1.50. Also helping sterling is the unwinding of short cross positions against the euro.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 12: Dollar Sports Heavier Tone as Yesterday’s Bounce Runs out of Steam

2017-09-12

by

2017-09-12

The sporadic updates continue while I am on a two-week business trip. Now in Barcelona, participating in TradeTech FX Europe. The euro advanced yesterday from NOK9.30 to NOK9.40. It is consolidating in a tight range today. The election results may have been a bit closer than expected, but the weight on the krone yesterday seemed to stem more from the unexpectedly soft inflation report.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, September 04 – 09: Draghi Dovish? EUR and USD falling against CHF

2017-09-10

by

2017-09-10

The euro rose close to CHF 1.15 with the ECB meeting this week. Finally traders realized that the ECB committed not to hike rates for a very long time. The ECB will review and take a first decision on the bond purchasing program this autumn. However, this program will come to an end only when the inflation target of 2% becomes in reach.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 08: US Dollar Tracks Yields Lower

2017-09-08

by

2017-09-08

The US dollar has been unable to find any traction as US yields continue to move lower. The US 10-year year is slipping below 2.03% in European turnover, the lowest level in ten months. The risk, as we have noted, is that without prospects of stronger growth and inflation impulses, the yield returns to where was before the US election (~1.85%). The two-year note yield, anchored more by Fed policy than the long-end,  is also soft. It yielded 1.25%...

Read More »

FX Daily, September 07: ECB Focus for Sure, but not Only Game in Town

2017-09-07

by

2017-09-07

The US dollar is trading broadly lower. The ECB meeting looms large. Many, like ourselves, expected that when Draghi said in July that the asset purchases would be revisited in the fall, it to meant after the summer recess, not a legalistic definition of when fall begins. Still, there have been some reports, citing unnamed sources close to the ECB, that have played down such expectations, and warn a decision on next year’s intentions may not be...

Read More »

FX Daily, September 06: Wake Me up when September Ends

2017-09-06

by

2017-09-06

The US dollar fell to new lows since mid-2015 against the Canadian dollar yesterday. It is flattish today as the market awaits the central bank's decision. We are concerned that given the strong performance and market positioning, a rate hike could spur "buy the rumor, sell the fact" activity. Alternatively, a disappointment if the Bank does not hike could also lead to some Canadian dollar sales.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 5: Greenback Mixed, North Korea and PMIs in Focus

2017-09-05

by

2017-09-05

Reports suggesting that North Korea is moving an ICBM missile toward launch pad in the western part of the country at night to minimize detection, while South Korea is escalating its military preparedness and the US seeks new sanctions, keep investors on edge. Risk assets are mixed. Gold is slightly lower. While the yen is stronger, the Swiss franc is heavier. Asia equities slipped, and European shares are recouping much of yesterday's 0.5% loss.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of August 29): Speculators Make Minor Position Adjustments, but Like that Aussie

2017-09-04

by

2017-09-04

swiss franc
The net speculative CHF position has fallen from 2K short to 1.8K contracts short (against USD). Speculators did not make any significant adjustment to gross positions, which we define as 10k or more contracts in the currency futures, during the CFTC reporting week ending August 29.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, August 28 – September 02: The end of big euro rise?

2017-09-03

by

2017-09-03

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 2
For us, the sudden euro rise from 1.08 to 1.14 is an illusion, the euro will fall sooner or later again. Macron will not help the French economy and low core inflation will prevent that the ECB ends her bond buying program.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 01: Manufacturing PMIs, US Jobs, and Implications of Harvey

2017-09-01

by

2017-09-01

As the markets head into the weekend, global equities are firmer, benchmark 10-year yields are mostly lower, and the dollar is consolidating after North American pared the greenback's gains yesterday. Manufacturing PMIs from China, EMU, and the UK have been reported, while in the US, the August jobs data stand in the way of the long holiday weekend for Americans.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 31: US Core PCE Deflator may Challenge the Greenback’s Firmer Tone

2017-08-31

by

2017-08-31

The US dollar recovery was marginally extendedin Asia, and while it remains firm, it is lost some of its momentum. The Fed's target inflation measure, the core PCE deflator, may decline from 1.5% to 1.4%, according to the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey. That would be the lowest read since the end of 2015 and likely spur more speculation against another Fed hike before the end of the year.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 30: US Dollar Recovery Extended

2017-08-30

by

2017-08-30

The US dollar recovery that began in North American yesterday continued to in Asia and Europe. The geopolitical anxiety sparked by North Korea's missile over Japan subsided. The US response was seen as measured and tempered.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 29: Dollar Losses Accelerate After North Korea Sends Missile over Japan

2017-08-29

by

2017-08-29

A brief period of quiet, which some may have confused with a change in posture, North Korea followed up the weekend's test of three ballistic missiles with what appears to have been an intermediate missile that flew over Japan. South Korea responded with its own symbolic display of force by dropping bombs by the DMZ.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 28: Monday’s Dollar Blues

2017-08-28

by

2017-08-28

The US dollar's pre-weekend losses were extended initially in Asia before it recovered sufficiently to give European participant a better selling level. The dollar selling into the shallow bounce reflects the bearish sentiment, which as we see it, was simply fanned by both Yellen and Draghi did not alter the status quo in their Jackson Hole speeches.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of August 22): Sterling Bears Press, but Too Much?

2017-08-28

by

2017-08-28

The net speculative CHF position has risen from 1.2K short to 2K contracts short (against USD). Speculators continued to amass a significant short sterling position in the futures market. In the CFTC reporting week ending August 22, speculators added 11.7k contracts to the gross short position, lifting it to 107.4k contracts.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, August 21 – August 26: Dollar Loses its Gains Against CHF

2017-08-26

by

2017-08-26

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 26
The broad technical condition of the dollar deteriorated materially before the weekend. The dollar had some gains versus the franc during the last month, but it lost all during the last days.The EURCHF continues with a 2.5% win for the last month.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 25: Is the Janet and Mario Show a New Episode or Rerun?

2017-08-25

by

2017-08-25

The event that investors have been waiting for and the media frequently linked to whatever price action has taken place has arrived: Yellen and Draghi's speeches later today. Yellen is first. She will speak at 10:00 am ET. This is toward the end of the European trading week. Draghi speaks late in the North American session--3:00 pm ET.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 24: Greenback Firmer in Becalmed Markets

2017-08-24

by

2017-08-24

The US dollar is enjoying a firmer tone in quiet. Sterling is stabilizing after grinding down to its lowest level since late June. The Mexican peso, which had dropped in thin trading in Asia and Europe yesterday following Trump's threat to exit NAFTA and force Congress to fund the Wall or face a government shutdown recovered fully and is now slightly higher on the week.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 23: Consolidation in Capital Markets Conceals Coming Turbulence

2017-08-23

by

2017-08-23

A mixed US dollar will greet the North American participants today. It is softer against the euro and yen, but firmer against the dollar-bloc currencies. Among the emerging market currencies, the eastern and central European currencies are moving higher in the euro's draft.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 22: Turn Around Tuesday Sees Firmer Dollar, Rates, and Equities

2017-08-22

by

2017-08-22

The US dollar has recouped most of yesterday's declines. However, as we have seen over the past couple of sessions, he North American market appears more dollar negative than Europe or Asia. The dollar's rise through the European morning has left the intraday technical indicators a bit stretched, warning that this short-term pattern continues today.

Read More »