Tag Archive: economy

Meaning Mexico

2020-08-25

Mexico Light Vehicle Production, Jan 2006 - Jul 2020

It took some doing, and some time, but Mexico has managed to bring its car production back up to more normal levels. For two months, there had been practically zero automaking in one of the biggest auto-producing nations. Getting back near where things left off, however, isn’t exactly a “V” shaped recovery; it’s only halfway.

Read More »

These Are The Real Huge Jobs Numbers, And They Will Make Your Blood Run Cold

2020-08-24

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-08-24

U.S. Unemployment Insurance; Initial Jobless Claims, Mar 2017 - Jun 2020

There is simply no way to spin these figures as anything good. Not just the usual ones were talking about here, but more so some new data that you probably haven’t seen before. Beginning with the regular, it doesn’t matter that the level of initial jobless claims has declined substantially over the past few weeks

Read More »

Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2020

2020-08-22

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2020-08-22

One of the advantages we enjoy here at Alhambra is the opportunity to interact with a lot of investors. We talk to hundreds of individual investors on a monthly basis, giving us a front-row seat to everyone’s fear and greed. Economic data tells us about the past, which isn’t particularly useful for investors focused on the future.

Read More »

Part 2 of June TIC: The Dollar Why

2020-08-21

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-08-21

Federal Reserve: H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates, 2008-2020

Before getting into the why of the dollar’s stubbornly high exchange value in the face of so much “money printing”, we need to first go back and undertake a decent enough review of the guts maybe even the central focus of the global (euro)dollar system.

Read More »

It Was Bad In The Other Sense, So Now What?

2020-08-18

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-08-18

According to the latest figures, Japan has tallied 56,074 total coronavirus cases since the outbreak began, leading to the death of an estimated 1,103 Japanese citizens. Out of a total population north of 125 million, it’s hugely incongruous.

Read More »

Fama 2: No Inflation For Old Central Banks

2020-08-14

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-08-14

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the core CPI in July 2020 jumped by the most (+0.62%) in almost thirty years. After having dropped month-over-month for three months in a row for the first time in its history, it has posted back to back gains the latest of which pushing the index back above its February level.

Read More »

Eugene Fama’s Efficient View of Stimulus Porn

2020-08-13

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-08-13

The key word in the whole thing is “bias.” For a very long time, people working in and around the finance industry have sought to gain tremendous advantages. No explanation for the motive is required. Charts, waves, technical (sounding) analysis and so on.

Read More »

Science of Sentiment: Zooming Expectations Wonder

2020-08-12

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-08-12

It had been an unusually heated gathering, one marked by temper tantrums and often publicly expressed rancor. Slamming tables, undiplomatic rudeness. Europe’s leaders had been brought together by the uncomfortable even dangerous fact that the economic dislocation they’ve put their countries through is going to sustain enormously negative pressures all throughout them. What would a “united” European system do to try and fill in this massive hole?The...

Read More »

A Second JOLTS

2020-08-11

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-08-11

What happens when we are stunned and dazed? We filter out the noise to focus on the bare basics by getting back to our instincts, acting reflexively based upon our deeply held beliefs and especially training. When faced with a crisis and there’s no time to really think, shorthand will have to suffice.

Read More »

Shoe V arning

2020-08-08

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-08-08

It’s no wonder we’re obsessed with shoes these days. Even the V-people, as I’ll call them, keep one wary eye glued looking behind them. Survivor’s euphoria means a lot of potentially bad things, only beginning with a false sense of survivor-hood.

Read More »

Purchasing Managers Indigestion

2020-08-06

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-08-06

Europe ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment, Jan 2017 - Jul 2020

There’s already doubt given how the two major series supposedly measuring the same thing seemingly can’t agree. If the rebound was truly robust, it would show up unambiguously everywhere. But IHS Markit’s purchasing managers indices struggled to get back above 50 in July, barely getting there, suggesting the economy might be slowing or even stalling way too close to the bottom.

Read More »

Accusing the Accused of Excusing the Mountain of Evidence

2020-08-03

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-08-03

Why not let the accused also sit in the jury box? The answer seems rather obvious. While maybe the truly honest man accused of a crime he did commit would vote for his own conviction, the world seems a bit short on supply of those while long and deep offering up practitioners of pure sophistry in their stead.

Read More »

That’s Probably Why Only Half a “V”

2020-07-31

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-07-31

Why only half a “V?” If the latest PMI’s are anywhere close to accurate, and they don’t have to be all that close, then the production side of the economy may have stalled out somewhere nearer the trough of this contraction. The promise of May’s big payroll report surprise has dissipated in more than just the bond market.

Read More »

US Stall? Only Half The Imagined “V” May Indicate One, Too

2020-07-27

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-07-27

These are not numbers that are consistent with a robust rebound. In fact, they don’t indicate very much of one at all. IHS Markit’s flash PMI’s for July 2020 instead look way too much like the sentiment indicators in Germany and Japan. Though they are now back near 50, both services and manufacturing, that doesn’t actually indicate what everyone seems to think it does.

Read More »

The (Other) Shoe Of Unemployment

2020-07-25

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-07-25

After raising the specter of a rebound stall, the idea before limited to Japan and Germany was abruptly given further weight today by US jobless claims numbers. For the first time since the peak at the end of March, the weekly tally of initial filings increased from the prior week.

Read More »

A Japanese Stall?

2020-07-24

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-07-24

In sharp contrast to the sentimental deference towards central bank stimulus exhibited by Germany’s ZEW, for example, similar Japanese surveys are starting to describe potential trouble developing. Like Germany, Japan is a bellwether country and a pretty reliable indicator of global economy performance.

Read More »

Of Incomplete Plans and Recoveries

2020-07-21

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-07-21

At the monthly press conference China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) now regularly gives whenever the Big Three economic accounts are updated (this time along with quarterly GDP), spokesman Liu Aihua was asked by a reporter from Reuters to comment on how the global economic recession might impact the Communist government’s long range goal of reaching its assigned GDP target.

Read More »

Transitory, The Other Way

2020-07-18

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-07-18

After a record three straight months of decline for the seasonally-adjusted core CPI March through May 2020, it turned upward again in June. Buoyed by a partially reopened economy, the price discounting (prerequisite to the Big D) took at least one month off.

Read More »

Wait A Minute, The Dollar And The Fed’s Bank Reserves Are Directly Not Inversely Related

2020-07-17

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-07-17

One small silver lining to the current situation, while Jay Powell is busily trying to sell you his inflation fantasy, he’s actually undermining it at the very same time. No mere challenge to his own “money printing” fiction, either, the Fed’s Chairman is actively disproving the entire enterprise. While he says what he says, pay close attention instead to what he’s done.

Read More »