Tag Archive: Deflation

Is a Liquidity Trap Really a Problem? Yen Debasement Part3 by Noah Smith

Thoughts on the Japanese Currency Debasement (part 3) In previous posts we looked on the following aspects of the recent Japanese currency debasement: Overview: What different leading economists – Paul Krugman, Richard Koo, Adam Posen, Kyle Bass – think about the Japanese currency debasement and the way to more private spending and investing instead of …

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Deflationary Risks? Comparing Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian Inflation and Exchange Rates

When the Swiss National Bank introduced the 1.20 lower limit, it wanted to eliminate the deflationary risks for Switzerland. For a certain period, namely when a global recession was looming in Autumn 2011, and the Swiss franc was hovering around 1.10, this risk was really present. In this post we would like to know if …

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Irvin Fisher’s Deflationary Spiral



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IMF World Economic Outlook

Alexander Gloy is founder and president of Lighthouse Investment Management       The IMF’s (International Monetary Fund) “World Economic Outlook”, a slim 250-page piece, came out. Some excerpts: Substantial reductions in estimated output (GDP) growth for 2013 for all major countries:   Unemployment in the Euro-Area (“EA”) is now expected to rise above the level …

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All roads lead to a euro zone break-up

For us all roads lead to a euro zone break-up and multiple sovereign defaults.   Our reasoning can be summarized as follows: Equities are worthless when associated debt becomes encumbered (risk capital takes the  first loss). Equity is not an asset; it is merely the remainder that is left over once debt is subtracted from …

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Switzerland in MoM deflation due to cheaper energy and clothes

Slowing energy prices (MoM -4.2%) and seasonal effects for clothes and footwear (MoM -2.8%) drove Switzerland in a slight deflation on monthly basis again.

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A central bank running suicide ? SNB prints at pace never seen since EUR/CHF parity in August 2011

  The most recent money supply data from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has shown increases of huge amounts. As compared with its loss of 19 bln. francs in 2010 (3% percent of the Swiss GDP), the central bank printed tremendous 17.3 bln. in the week ending in June 1st and 13 bln. in the one …

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Huge rise in Currency Reserves: The SNB has restarted the printing press

The game for the Swiss National Bank seems to have changed completely. Again the central bank had increase money supply, as measured by deposits at the SNB by local banks and other sight deposits, this time even by 13219 mil. francs (source). This money printing implies that the SNB had to buy in Euros in …

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SNB buys Swiss Francs and sells Euro: Welcome to the EUR/CHF peg

Why the big Q1 loss of the SNB was actually a big win for the central bank Anybody watching the EUR/CHF exchange rate this year was wondering why the volatility the pair saw last year had completely left. The pair slowly fell from 1.2156 over 1.2040 at the end of Q1 to 1.2014 today. FX … Continue reading...

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Why is the Swiss safe-haven so completely different from the Yen ?

4 future scenarios for the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen For many people it is astonishing that the Swiss franc continuously rises against the euro, especially when markets are up. Is the CHF no safe-haven any more ? This year the Japanese yen has strongly fallen against the major currencies. Together with the upturn …

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SNB meeting on March 15th, 2012: Pure Speculation that SNB raises floor, How to Trade it ?

Between November 2011 and January 2012 mostly left-wing politicians and trade unions wanted the EUR/CHF floor to be risen to 1.30 or 1.40 and uttered their wishes regularly in the Swiss newspapers, triggering many FX traders to speculate on this hike. Recently these demands have become more silent even if some UBS analysts still see the floor to …

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Keynesians vs. Anti-Keynesians: How price deflation has kick started the US growth

In recent posts Keynesians were criticized that hikes in the monetary base like Quantitative Easing (QE2) failed to lift the US economy, but it was the debt ceiling that helped to restore confidence in the US and that austerity can lead to GDP growth. Paul Krugman angrily replied that “even a huge rise in the …

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The new European Save-Havens: Trade SEK/CHF and NOK/CHF

After the announcement of the floor in the EUR/CHF pair, many predicted the Swedish and the Norwegian Krone to take the place of the Swiss Franc as European save-haven against the Euro turmoil (http://on.ft.com/pKSJ1V). Both countries possess a low level of debt, positive trade balance and very competitive economies.

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SNB: Lift EUR/CHF floor or not ?

Many participants in the FX markets seem to be sure that the SNB will lift the EUR/CHF flow to 1.25 Here the pros and the cons:

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