Tag Archive: China

Marc Faber argues against Jim Rogers

2012-10-05

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2012-10-05

  The most famous investors Marc Faber and Jim Rogers were in a common interview on CNBC. Marc Faber is of our position, whereas Jim Rogers is still bullish on commodities.   Marc points out that China’s bench mark stock index the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index was at 6100 in 2007 even as it … Continue reading...

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Global PMIs Contracting More – Are Stocks Overvalued?

2012-08-07

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2012-08-07

Global PMIs July 2012
updated August 05,2012 We publish a detailed analysis of global PMIs and compare them with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD some days after most PMIs came out. Abstract: Thanks to positive US consumer confidence, stock markets are highly valued, whereas the Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing industry are contracting …

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Currency Outlook and Net Speculative Positions: Week from July 16

2012-07-16

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2012-07-16

chess
Currency Outlook and Positioning: Week from July 16 Guest Post from Marc Chandler

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The German supply-side reforms or will German companies take over the PIIGS ?

2012-06-02

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2012-06-02

Greece vs. Eastern E
Words heart on German street in 2010 during the first Greek bailouts were that Germany should obtain the Greek islands as collateral if Greece is not able to pay back the debt to Germany. But even today German n-tv is reporting about many Greek real estate brokers that are currently delling islands. If it is not that type … Continue...

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The vicious cycle of the US economy or why the US dollar must ultimately fall again

2012-05-22

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2012-05-22

Core PCE
Just some simple words about the vicious cycle of the US economy and the consequences on the US dollar: A stronger USD will not rescue the US economy, quite the contrary. US companies will not hire in the US, but outsource or hire overseas. If they hire in the US, due to the high number …

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The Chinese Government, a bubble creator or when finally does China consume ?

2012-05-12

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2012-05-12

The years 2009 to 2011 have seen four institutions that created bubbles in commodity, stock and real estate markets. 2008 and 2009 saw the massive Keynesian interventions by the US state and the Chinese government. In 2009 the first Quantitative Easing measures enabled a first flood of hot money into Emerging Markets. Summer 2010 witnessed …

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Why is the Swiss safe-haven so completely different from the Yen ?

2012-04-27

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2012-04-27

4 future scenarios for the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen For many people it is astonishing that the Swiss franc continuously rises against the euro, especially when markets are up. Is the CHF no safe-haven any more ? This year the Japanese yen has strongly fallen against the major currencies. Together with the upturn …

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Oil price increases in 2012 and why they are not real

2012-02-26

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2012-02-26

Gasoline consumption
Oil prices  Oil prices will rise quickly this year along with the recovery, the Iran issues and last but not least driven by investor demands of yield, implemented in the HFT algos. Interestingly the Iran issues already existed in December, but oil prices were falling, at that moment investors did not believe in a global recovery yet, …

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SNB: Lift EUR/CHF floor or not ?

2011-12-14

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2011-12-14

chf vs. gold in 2011
Many participants in the FX markets seem to be sure that the SNB will lift the EUR/CHF flow to 1.25 Here the pros and the cons:

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