Tag Archive: China
The Swiss Trade Surplus: A Really Global Economy
The Swiss trade balance for goods clearly indicates its global orientation. Switzerland has a trade surplus with the US, Canada, the UK and many emerging markets. Swiss exports are mostly luxury products and pharmaceuticals. The total surplus for the 4 first months in 2013 was 7.7 billion CHF, about 1.2% of GDP, annualized around …
Read More »
Read More »
How 40% Renmimbi appreciation vs Yen Caused a Deflationary Commodity Price Shock for World Economy
Everybody is wondering why China is currently so weak, with a HSBC manufacturing in contractionary territory. No wonder, the main competitor in electronics and many more products,the Japanese yen has appreciated by nearly 40%. While China has to fight years-long appreciation of wages, the Japanese profit on years-long deflation and cheaper costs. At the …
Read More »
Read More »
Jim O’Neill’s Bullish BRICS Outlook until 2020 and our Critics
Perfect charts by Goldman's Jim O'Neill that help to understand the former and future growth of different emerging, "growth markets", the BRICS. We criticise his partially over-optimistic views.
Read More »
Read More »
GDP Comparison BRICS Developed Markets
Beautiful charts by Goldman's Jim O'Neill that help to understand the former and future growth of different emerging, "growth markets", the BRICS. We criticise his partially over-optimistic views.
Read More »
Read More »
Global Purchasing Manager Indices
Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators. August 2013 Update Emerging markets: Years of strong increases in wages combined with tapering fears have taken its toll: Higher costs and lower investment capital available. EM Companies have issues in coping with developed economies. Some of them …
Read More »
Read More »
Switzerland’s Slow Way to Inflation
UPDATE February 2013 inflation data: The inflation figures for February showed the upwards movement we expected. On monthly basis inflation rose by 0.3%. The Swiss CPI is getting closer and closer to the one of the euro zone. We explain the January 2013 data on Swiss inflation and indicate which components drive the consumer …
Read More »
Read More »
Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update January 25
Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators. After a strong slowing in summer 2012 and the Fed’s QE3, this is the fourth month of improvements in global PMIs January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are 15 countries that show values above 50 and 14 with values under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: …
Read More »
Read More »
Roubini and Deutsche Bank’s Sanjeev Sanyal: Still Waiting for the Chinese Consumer
Nouriel Roubini and Deutsche Bank’s Sanjeev Sanyal are quite pessimistic about future global and Chinese growth. They think that we need to wait a long time for the Chinese consumer that should boost global growth.
Read More »
Read More »
Same Procedure as Every Year: Analysts Shouting “The Great Recession is Over!” But It Is Not!
Or why we do not believe in the American economy. Like every year in Q4, analysts proudly present the end of the great recession: 2009: The big picture: The Great Recession is Over! Long Live the Ordinary Recession …. 2010: Mish Global Trend Analysis: The Great Recession is Over; Bad News: It Doesn’t Feel Like … Continue...
Read More »
Read More »
Correlations Between the Swiss Franc, Gold and the German Economy
In yesterday’s post we focused on several economic events that weakened the position of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). In this extended replacement post, we give several reasons for recent movements in the gold price and explain the correlation between German economic data, gold and the Swiss franc. IFO data shows that Germany will not …
Read More »
Read More »
Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 17
Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators. Since the Fed’s QE3, this is the third month of improvements in global PMIs after a strong slowing in summer 2012. January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are as many countries that show values above 50 as under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: 18 countries …
Read More »
Read More »
Five facts you need to know about China’s currency manipulation
Five facts you need to know about China’s currency manipulation Ezra Klein. Washington Post
Read More »
Read More »
Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 10
Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the most leading and important economic indicators. Jim O’Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, believes the PMI numbers are among the most reliable economic indicators in the world. BlackRock’s Russ Koesterich thinks it’s one of the most underrated indicators. Global Purchasing Manager Indices for the manufacturing industry December 3, 2012 …
Read More »
Read More »
Is China’s Growth Rate Healthy Now? Golden Rule of Capital
After a slowing in Chinese growth this year, economists recently stated that a hard landing has been avoided and that the economy might have bottomed out. Marc Faber has changed his mind and considers buying Chinese stocks. Also Sprach Analyst provides the following data: Sequential growth rates since Q1 through Q3 were 1.5%, 2.0% and 2.2% respectively, or in annualised annual rate, 6.16%, 8.24%, and 9.09% respectively. Compared that with the...
Read More »
Read More »
Marc Faber: Assets are overpriced, we short metals and Brent now
As we predicted on October 5 or one day later on DailyFX, metals have started their descent, silver lost one dollar, from levels around 35$ last week to 34$ now. Marc Faber joins our view and says that asset prices are quite vulnerable. “I’m not 100% in cash, for the simple reason that I could … Continue reading »
Read More »
Read More »
Marc Faber argues against Jim Rogers
The most famous investors Marc Faber and Jim Rogers were in a common interview on CNBC. Marc Faber is of our position, whereas Jim Rogers is still bullish on commodities. Marc points out that China’s bench mark stock index the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index was at 6100 in 2007 even as it … Continue reading...
Read More »
Read More »
Global PMIs Contracting More – Are Stocks Overvalued?
updated August 05,2012 We publish a detailed analysis of global PMIs and compare them with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD some days after most PMIs came out. Abstract: Thanks to positive US consumer confidence, stock markets are highly valued, whereas the Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing industry are contracting …
Read More »
Read More »
The German supply-side reforms or will German companies take over the PIIGS ?
Words heart on German street in 2010 during the first Greek bailouts were that Germany should obtain the Greek islands as collateral if Greece is not able to pay back the debt to Germany. But even today German n-tv is reporting about many Greek real estate brokers that are currently delling islands. If it is not that type … Continue...
Read More »
Read More »
The vicious cycle of the US economy or why the US dollar must ultimately fall again
Just some simple words about the vicious cycle of the US economy and the consequences on the US dollar: A stronger USD will not rescue the US economy, quite the contrary. US companies will not hire in the US, but outsource or hire overseas. If they hire in the US, due to the high number …
Read More »
Read More »