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Why Krugman, Roubini, Rogoff And Buffett Hate Gold

2016-10-10

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2016-10-10

A couple of weeks ago an article appeared on Bitcoin Magazine entitled ‘Some economists really hate bitcoin’. I read it with a sigh of nostalgia. As someone who has been writing about gold for a few years, I am used to reading similar criticisms as those bitcoin receives from mainstream economists, about gold.

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Great Graphic: US-German 2-Yr Differential and the Euro

2016-10-09

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2016-10-09

The US premium over Germany is at its widest since 2006. This is despite a small reduction in odds of a hike in December. There are many forces are work, but over time, the widening differential will likely give the dollar better traction.

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20 Gram Gold Bar | PAMP Suisse | Money Metals Exchange

2016-10-07

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PAMP Suisse 20 Gram Gold Bars: https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-bar-20-gram-9999-pure/84?utm_source=silo&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=buy-gold-bars The High Appeal of 20 Gram Gold Bars Many investors buy 20 gram gold bars as part of a diverse investment portfolio. Two of the most respected mints in the world are Australia’s Perth Mint and Switzerland’s PAMP Suisse. While they are many miles apart, both produce high-quality...

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Canadian Dollar: A Little Less About Oil, a Little More about Rates

2016-10-06

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2016-10-06

Canadian Dollar and Oil
The Canadian dollar's link to oil has loosened. Its sensitivity to interest rates has increased. Lumber issue is coming to a head shortly.

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The Yen in Three Charts

2016-10-04

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2016-10-04

The dollar is taking out a several month downtrend against the yen. The correlation between the yen and the S&P 500 has broken down. The US 2-year premium over Japan has steadily risen.

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Understanding Negative Interest Rates

When the central banks of three European countries and the European Central Bank (ECB) itself introduced negative interest rates (NIR) in mid -2014, many considered it be a temporary measure, a new experiment in monetary policy. But when the Bank of Japan did the same in January 2016 and when the ECB pushed rates further into negative territory in March 2016,

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Great Graphic: Growth in Premiums of Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance

2016-09-29

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2016-09-29

Cumulative Premium Increases for Covered Workers with Family Coverage
Upward pressure on US consumer prices is stemming from two elements. Rents and medical services. Due to the differences the composition of the basket of goods and services that are used, the core personal consumption deflator, which the Fed targets, typically lags behind core CPI.

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Great Graphic: Stocks and Bonds

2016-09-28

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2016-09-28

US 10-year yield and S&P 500
The relationship between the change in Us 10-year yields and the change in the S&P 500 has broken down. The 60-day correlation is negative for the first time since late Q2 2015. It is only the third such period of inverse correlation since the start of 2015.

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Great Graphic: Nearly Five-Month Uptrend in the Dollar Index Set to be Tested

2016-09-26

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2016-09-26

US Dollar Index, September 26, 2016
DXY has been holding an uptrend since early May. It looks set to be tested near-term and technical indicators suggest it may not hold. Here are the two scenarios of penetration.

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Great Graphic: Median U.S. Income per Presidents

2016-09-19

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2016-09-19

How Median Income Changed Under Each President
Median household income was higher in 2015 than in 2008, but still below 1999 peak in real terms. The bottom fifth of households by income have just recouped what was lost. Income growth did best under (Bill) Clinton and Reagan, including for top 5%. Origin of strong dollar policy means it will not be used as a trade weapon and it hasn't since Bentsen.

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Great Graphic: Net Mexican Migration to the US–Not What You Might Think

2016-09-14

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2016-09-14

Net migration from Mexico 2009 to 2014
Net migration of Mexicans into the US has fallen for a decade. The surge in Mexican migration into the US followed on the heels of NAFTA. Although Trump has bounced in the polls, and some see this as negative for the peso, rising US interest rates and the slide in oil price are more important drivers.

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Negative and the War On Cash, Part 2: “Closing The Escape Routes”

2016-09-08

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2016-09-08

History teaches us that central authorities dislike escape routes, at least for the majority, and are therefore prone to closing them, so that control of a limited money supply can remain in the hands of the very few. In the 1930s, gold was the escape route, so gold was confiscated. As Alan Greenspan wrote in 1966:

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Great Graphic: What Kind of Jobs is the US Creating

2016-09-07

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2016-09-07

The oft repeated generalization about the dominance of low paying jobs is not true for the last few years. This does note refute the disparity of wealth and income in the US. There is a restructuring taking place that favors educated and skilled workers.

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Great Graphic: Low Wages in US Rising

2016-08-29

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2016-08-29

The bottom of the US wage scale is rising. The added wage costs are being blunted by less staff turnover, hiring and training costs. It is consistent with our expectation of higher price pressures.

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Great Graphic: GDP Per Capita Selected Comparison

2016-08-24

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2016-08-24

US population growth has been greater than other major centers that helps explain why GDP has risen faster. GDP per capita has also growth faster than other high income regions. The US recovery is weak relative to post-War recoveries but it has been faster than anticipated after a financial crisis and shows little evidence of secular stagnation.

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Spectacular Chinese Gold Demand Fully Denied By GFMS And Mainstream Media

2016-08-18

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2016-08-18

In the Gold Survey 2016 report by GFMS that covers the global gold market for calendar year 2015 Chinese gold consumption was assessed at 867 tonnes. As Chinese wholesale demand, measured by withdrawals from Shanghai Gold Exchange designated vaults, accounted for 2,596 tonnes in 2015 the difference reached an extraordinary peak for the year.

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Great Graphic: Aussie Tests Three-Year Downtrend

2016-08-17

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2016-08-17

The Australian dollar's technical condition has soured. Market sentiment may be changing as the MSCI World Index of developed equities posted a key reversal yesterday. It is not clear yet whether the Aussie is correcting lower or whether there has been a trend change.

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Great Graphic: Dollar-Yen–Possible Head and Shoulders Continuation Pattern

2016-08-16

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2016-08-16

This technical pattern is most often a reversal pattern, but not always. It may be a continuation pattern in the dollar against the yen. It highlights the importance of the JPY100 level and warns of risk toward JPY92.50. It aligns well with the sequence of macro events.

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Great Graphic: Bullish Emerging Market Equity Index

2016-08-10

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2016-08-10

Liquidity rather than intrinsic value seems to be driving EM assets. MSCI EM equity index looks constructive technically. The chart pattern suggests scope for around 13% gains from here.

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No Fines for Iberia, but Remedial Action Demanded and Possible Loss of Some ESI Funds

2016-08-10

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2016-08-10

Spain and Portugal need to make some relatively small budget adjustments or will be denied some transfer payments. Spain's political situation is fluid, but another window of opportunity to break the logjam is at hand. The euro seems immune to these fiscal developments; some retracement objectives are in sight.

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