Category Archive: 2.) Pictet Macro Analysis

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House View, August 2020

2020-08-10

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2020-08-10

We have revised up our euro area GDP forecast for 2020 to -8.5%, mainly due to improving data in Germany, which is better positioned to recover rapidly from the downturn than its European peers. Meanwhile, the US economy has shown signs of flatlining amid escalating covid-19 cases in the South. Consumer confidence has taken a hit, while weekly unemployment claims have been rising again.

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Horizon 2020: long-term investing in a world marked by pandemic

2020-08-05

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2020-08-05

The sudden, violent recession triggered by this year’s covid-19 outbreak provides further impetus to pre-existing economic and market dynamics.

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Weekly view – The summer grind

2020-07-30

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2020-07-30

All kinds of reasons can be advanced for the tit-for-tat closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston and its US equivalent in Chengdu. These range from a dispute over quarantine requirements for US diplomats returning to China to an attempt by the Trump Administration to distract from troubling virus news and a real threat to American intellectual property and privacy.

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Weekly view – Fog warning

2020-07-23

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2020-07-23

Coronavirus cases in the US are rising and high frequency data in the US such as retail foot traffic and employee working hours have flatlined. Meanwhile, in Q2 results, USD36 bn in trading and fixed-income revenues managed to make up for higher loan provisions for US banks.

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Weekly View – Alive and kicking

2020-06-25

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2020-06-25

In spite of renewed fears of coronavirus clusters in Beijing, data last week suggested the more consumer-oriented sides of the Chinese economy were tracking improvements in industry, with a year-on-year increase in auto sales in May. UK retail sales were also encouraging, but the biggest surprise came from the US where May’s 18% rise in retail sales month on month was double analysts’ expectations.

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Pictet & Mater — Furnishing a sustainable future (Abridged version)

2020-06-22

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Long before environmentalism became a popular concern, Henrik Marstrand created Mater in 2006, a Danish furniture company that prides itself on timeless design with sustainability at its core. Designing and producing all their own pieces, Marstrand’s new line of outdoor chairs and tables was based on original designs from Nanna and Jørgen Ditzel and is made from recycled fishing nets and ropes. This initiative is helping to offset the five million...

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Weekly View – Reality check

2020-06-19

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2020-06-19

The short-term pull-back in stock prices last week on the back of persistent virus concerns in the US and elsewhere shows the market remains jittery despite the massive run-up in prices since late March. May data from China showed a relatively fast rebound on the supply side of the economy, but a much slower take-off in consumption, suggesting a ‘reverse square root’ kind of recovery for economies rather than the ‘v’-shaped one markets have been...

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Pictet Perspectives Trailer

2020-06-16

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Pictet Perspectives Trailer

2020-06-16

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Pictet — Perspectives: Near-Term Investment Themes and Challenges

2020-06-15

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Markets are pricing in fully several optimistic scenarios, yet there are attractive plays in investment grade credit and equities. Meanwhile, over the summer, we await a clearer picture on how realistic this optimism proves to be over the longer term. https://perspectives.group.pictet

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Pictet — Perspectives: Near-Term Investment Themes and Challenges

2020-06-15

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Markets are pricing in fully several optimistic scenarios, yet there are attractive plays in investment grade credit and equities. Meanwhile, over the summer, we await a clearer picture on how realistic this optimism proves to be over the longer term. https://perspectives.group.pictet

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Weekly View – One country, two systems at risk

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

Last week, German chancellor Merkel delivered a surprise about-face when she and French president Macron announced a proposal for a EUR 500bn recovery fund in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. The unprecedented plan involves the distribution of grants, rather than loans, to member states in economic need.

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Modern Monetary Theory makes inroads following coronavirus crisis

2020-05-20

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2020-05-20

US policymakers’ bold actions in response to the coronavirus bear some traces of the free-wheeling deficits, repressed interest rates and central bank activism (money creation) that form the cornerstones of the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) playbook.

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House View, May 2020

2020-05-19

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2020-05-19

With leading economies likely facing double-digit declines in GDP in Q1 and Q2, we expect Brent oil in the USD10–20 range in Q2 before reaching a long-term equilibrium of USD18 at year’s end. With consumers tempted to remain cautious, the oil sector in deep difficulty and a big rise in unemployment, we expect dire Q2 GDP figures for the US. We have reduced our GDP forecast for 2020 as a whole to -7.7%.

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Pictet – Multi-Generational Wealth, Gaja (Abridged version)

2020-05-14

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Five generations after Giovanni Gaja founded his eponymous winery in the Piedmontese town of Barbaresco, the family continues to produce some of Italy’s best vintages. Giovanni’s great grandson, Angelo, revolutionised Italian winemaking by experimenting with foreign grape varieties and employing new oak and a longer ageing process. Angelo’s efforts paid off and, with the help of his children, his uncompromising commitment to quality has helped to...

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Pictet — Multi-Generational Wealth, Gaja (Full version)

2020-05-14

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Five generations after Giovanni Gaja founded his eponymous winery in the Piedmontese town of Barbaresco, the family continues to produce some of Italy’s best vintages. Giovanni’s great grandson, Angelo, revolutionised Italian winemaking by experimenting with foreign grape varieties and employing new oak and a longer ageing process. Angelo’s efforts paid off and, with the help of his children, his uncompromising commitment to quality has helped to...

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Pictet – Multi-Generational Wealth, Gaja (Abridged version)

2020-05-14

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Five generations after Giovanni Gaja founded his eponymous winery in the Piedmontese town of Barbaresco, the family continues to produce some of Italy’s best vintages. Giovanni’s great grandson, Angelo, revolutionised Italian winemaking by experimenting with foreign grape varieties and employing new oak and a longer ageing process. Angelo’s efforts paid off and, with the help …

Read More »

Pictet — Multi-Generational Wealth, Gaja (Full version)

2020-05-14

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Five generations after Giovanni Gaja founded his eponymous winery in the Piedmontese town of Barbaresco, the family continues to produce some of Italy’s best vintages. Giovanni’s great grandson, Angelo, revolutionised Italian winemaking by experimenting with foreign grape varieties and employing new oak and a longer ageing process. Angelo’s efforts paid off and, with the help …

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Deflation risks might be on the rise, strategist says

2020-04-30

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Frederik Ducrozet, strategist at Pictet Wealth Management, outlines what he expects from the ECB on Thursday.

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A reality check on China’s return to work

2020-04-14

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2020-04-14

The recent recovery in industrial activity seems to have stalled, probably because of the collapse in external demand and high levels of vigilance inside China. Since the large-scale coronavirus infection was contained, the Chinese government has been trying hard to get the economy back on track. The end of the lockdown in Wuhan after two in a half months is an important milestone in that respect.

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