Category Archive: 2.) Pictet Macro Analysis

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

Pictet – In Conversation With Alexandre Tavazzi

2018-06-12

by

This year has clearly been defined by market volatility – and it feels a long way from the boom times of last year. But the message from Alexandre Tavazzi – a global strategist at Pictet Wealth Management – is that growth remains robust and investors simply need to be more nimble. He spoke from the … Continue reading...

Read More »

Europe chart of the week-German new orders

2018-06-11

by

2018-06-11

Germany: three measures of new factory orders 2011-2018
German new orders were weak across the board in April, contracting for a fourth consecutive month and by a larger-than-expected 2.5% m-o-m following a downwardly-revised 1.1% drop in March. As a result, total manufacturing orders are off to an extremely weak start in Q2 (-3.3% q-o-q after -2.2% q-o-q in Q1). What is more, the decline in demand for German goods in April was fairly broad-based across countries and sectors.

Read More »

Pictet — In Conversation With Alfonso Prat-Gay

2018-06-07

by

Latin America is at a crossroads in 2018 with several regional powerhouses heading to the polls. And while plenty is yet to be defined – both economically and politically – there are also causes for optimism as populism arguably shifts out of the region and into North America. Alfonso Prat-Gay, Argentina’s former finance minister and …

Read More »

Europe chart of the week – Spanish growth

2018-06-05

by

2018-06-05

Spain GDP and EC Economic Sentiment Index, 2006 - 2018
This week saw the final release of Spanish GDP growth for Q1. The economy again managed to post robust growth, the highest among the four largest euro area economies (+0.7% q-o-q versus 0.4% q-o-q for the euro area). The breakdown of figures showed that domestic demand was once again the main growth driver.

Read More »

Euro area inflation close to ECB target in May

2018-06-03

by

2018-06-03

Euro Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices Inflation and ECB Staff Projections
Today’s release of euro area flash HICP surprised to the upside both in terms of headline inflation (which surged from 1.2% to 1.9% y-o-y in May, above consensus expectations of 1.6%) and, crucially, in terms of core inflation (HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco rose from 0.7% to 1.1%).

Read More »

Spain Snap Elections in Sight

2018-06-02

by

2018-06-02

Spain Politics in General Election
Political instability in Spain has added to turmoil in other peripheral countries. The situation is not comparable with the one that Italy is experiencing at the moment, but since it comes at the same time it is increasing market volatility. Last Friday, Spain’s main oppositionparty, the Socialist party (PSOE) filed a no confidence vote against Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. The debate will start on May 31 with a vote probably on June 1.

Read More »

Italy heads towards new elections

2018-06-01

by

2018-06-01

Italian polls on voting intentions in the next general election
Fragmented politics and the risk of a financial crisis continue to hang over the country.This weekend, the Five Star Movement and the League decided to pull the plug on their attempt to form a coalition government after the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella vetoed the appointment of anti-euro professor Paolo Savona as minister of finance. Mattarella has granted ex-International Monetary Fund official, Carlo Cottarelli, a mandate to form a...

Read More »

Pictet – Multi-Generational Wealth, Nassau

2018-06-01

by

THE ROLE OF REAL ASSETS IN A VIRTUAL WORLD? The fifth edition of the Latam Family Office Master Class took place in Nassau in April 2018, with more than 60 guests attending. This year the focus was around geopolitics, digital revolution, alternative investments and family governance. Among the speakers, we had the pleasure of welcoming …

Read More »

ECB: contingency plans

2018-05-25

by

2018-05-25

ECB’s policy rates and asset purchases, including projections
A look at different scenarios for the ECB’s exit from quantitative easing and its expected rate hiking cycle.Our baseline scenario for ECB normalisation still holds. We expect QE to end in December 2018 and a first rate hike in September 2019. The ECB is likely to wait until its 26 July meeting to make its decisions on QE and forward guidance.Still, downside risks have risen to the point where another open-ended QE extension can no longer be ruled...

Read More »

Pictet – The Entrepreneurs – Mountain retreat (Abridged version)

2018-05-25

by

The 4th edition of the Pictet Mountain Retreat was held in St Moritz in March 2018 at the heart of the Swiss Alps. It brought together an exclusive group of 50 entrepreneurs and investors in an intimate setting to network, unwind and have fun. This event combines sport, competition, Pictet expertise as well as relaxed …

Read More »

Pictet – The Entrepreneurs – Mountain retreat (Full Version)

2018-05-25

by

The 4th edition of the Pictet Mountain Retreat was held in St Moritz in March 2018 at the heart of the Swiss Alps. It brought together an exclusive group of 50 entrepreneurs and investors in an intimate setting to network, unwind and have fun. This event combines sport, competition, Pictet expertise as well as relaxed …

Read More »

PMIs point to downside risk to near term euro area growth

2018-05-24

by

2018-05-24

Eurozone GDP growth
Euro area flash PMI indices failed to stabilise in May. Details were somewhat less worrying than headline numbers and overall still consistent with a broad-based economic expansion, if only at a slower pace than last year. Our forecast of 2.3% GDP growth in 2018 still holds, but the balance of risks is now clearly tilted to the downside in sharp contrast with the situation prevailing a few months ago.

Read More »

Eurosceptic Italian government faces a reality check

2018-05-22

by

2018-05-22

With the putative M5S-League government publishing its final common programme, we take a look at the road ahead for the Italian economy and for Italian government debt.We expect negative noise surrounding the Italian budget to intensify initially, but believe that negotiations with Brussels will result in compromises eventually, including dilution of the incoming Italian government’s fiscal easing measures. The biggest risks lie with the proposed...

Read More »

Europe chart of the week – Italy’s fiscal buffers

2018-05-18

by

2018-05-18

The incoming government’s fiscal plans could result in a sharp deterioration of Italy’s public finances. However, broader fiscal metrics are better than they were during the euro sovereign crisis.The M5S-League coalition has committed to a significant degree of fiscal easing and to the reversal of some structural reforms. Such policies will put Italy on course for confrontation with Brussels over deficit reduction targets, although at this stage we...

Read More »

Europe chart of the week – Corporate Sector Soft Patch

2018-05-06

by

2018-05-06

Next week’s detailed breakdown of ECB QE monthly data will reveal a marked slowdown in the pace of corporate bonds purchases in April (Corporate Sector Purchase Programme, or CSPP). Indeed, weekly holdings data have been consistent with gross purchases of around EUR3bn in April, down from EUR5.8bn on average in Q1. There are several possible explanations for the drop in gross purchases, but redemptions are not one of them, as they amounted to just...

Read More »

Europe has a lot to lose from trade wars

2018-04-08

by

2018-04-08

Any estimate of the economic costs of protectionist measures, let alone trade wars, is subject to uncertainty given the complexity of global supply chains. A common assumption is that new tariffs on exports will produce small direct effects on GDP growth but more significant indirect effects in the event of escalating trade conflicts, including on domestic investment.

Read More »

Larger-than-expected reduction in French public deficit

2018-03-30

by

2018-03-30

France’s public deficit fell to 2.6% of GDP in 2017 according to INSEE’s preliminary assessment, down from 3.4% in 2016 and below the 3% threshold for the first time since 2007. The outcome was better than the government’s estimate of a 2.9% deficit. If confirmed, France will exit the Excessive Deficit Procedure that the European Commission opened in 2009.

Read More »

Impact of recent tariffs on US and China’s GDP should be limited for now

2018-03-29

by

2018-03-29

The Trump Administration last week announced tariffs of 25% on USD 60bn worth of imports from China (out of USD506bn of total Chinese merchandise imports). The list of products targeted, still has to be thrashed out. The official aim is to sanction China for alleged theft of US firms’ intellectual property; the US Trade Representative (USTR) estimates the damage amounts to USD 50bn.

Read More »

British pound – Smoother transition, stronger sterling

2018-03-28

by

2018-03-28

Recent positive developments in the United Kingdom (UK), namely the transitional deal reached between the UK and the European Union (EU) on 20 March and the strong job market report on 21 March, call for a more positive short-term outlook for the sterling than previously thought. We therefore revise our projections upward for the sterling on the entire time horizon.

Read More »

Disentangling the Swiss current account

2018-03-27

by

2018-03-27

Following the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) publication of Switzerland’s balance of payments data for Q4 2017, in this note we look deeper into the Swiss current account to try to find out why Switzerland persistently runs a surplus and whether or not the current account balance can be used to assess the fair value of the Swiss franc.

Read More »