Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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Europe – ECB preview

2018-03-04

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2018-03-04

Market participants have enjoyed a protracted period of very low volatility, but it may well have come to an end in 2018. Central banks are often said to be responsible for the disappearance of volatility, for example through their large-scale asset purchases, which have compressed the term premium. But, now that the same central banks are heading for the exit from unconventional policies, they, too, need to relearn how to live with volatility.

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Maischberger-Talk mit Yanis Varoufakis, Sahra Wagenknecht und Lindner 10.02.2016 – Bananen

2018-03-04

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Google+: ▻ Zweiter-Upload-Kanal: ▻ Backup-Kanal: Maischberger 10.02.2016 Talk Erst Eurokrise, jetzt Flüchtlingsstreit – Wieder Ärger mit Griechenland? Das Schuldendrama schien im Sommer beendet, der . Google+: ▻ Zweiter-Upload-Kanal:. ‘Erst Eurokrise, jetzt Flüchtlingsstreit – Wieder Ärger mit Griechenland?’ Maischberger mit Varoufakis u. Wagenknecht Maischberger vom 10.02.2016 Das Schuldendrama schien im Sommer...

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ECB policy is boosting the Bundesbank’s profits

2018-03-03

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2018-03-03

Bundesbank's Net Interest Income, 2017
This week the German Bundesbank published its 2017 annual report, which includes a number of interesting figures that are relevant to the broader (monetary) policy debate in the euro area. In particular, the Bundesbank provided details of the amount of securities held on its balance sheet for policy purposes, including QE, at the end of 2017, and the corresponding flows of income stemming from its asset purchases. Remember that QE is largely...

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STERN Heiner Flassbeck 03 05 09

2018-03-03

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Switzerland: So far so good

2018-03-02

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2018-03-02

According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO)’s quarterly estimates, Swiss real GDP rose by 0.6% q-o-q in Q4 (2.4% q-o-q annualised; 1.9% y-o-y), above consensus expectations (0.5%). The Swiss economy expanded by 1.0% in 2017 overall, in line with our own forecast. This comes after GDP growth of 1.4% in 2016 and 1.2% in 2015.

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Who will tackle Italy’s root problems?

2018-03-02

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2018-03-02

Average Monthly Voting Intentions, Jan 2016 - Jan 2018
The Italian general election campaign is in its final stretch before voting on 4 March. The election will take place under the new electoral law (Rosatellum bis), which allocates 37% of parliamentary seats via the principle of "first-past-the-post" and 61% via proportional representation, with the remaining 2% reserved for overseas constituencies (see our previous Flash Note for further details).

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Heiner Flassbeck – Nachtspiel

2018-03-01

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Nachgespräch zu “Warten auf Godot” am 19.01.2018 in der Tribüne Linz. Wir haben eine arbeitsteilige Gesellschaft. Wir sind aufeinander angewiesen, wir funktionieren nur als „Wir“. Was bedeutet es, wenn dieses „Wir“ zur bloßen Behauptung wird? Was wäre echte Solidarität? Hieße das nicht, gemeinsam Veränderungen herbeizuführen, sich zu bewegen? Die Notwendigkeit des Handelns liegt auf der …

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Swiss Retail Sales, January: -0.8 Percent Nominal and -0.6 Percent Real

2018-03-01

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2018-03-01

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, Mar 2013 - Mar 2018
Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.8% in nominal terms in January 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.6% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Switzerland GDP Q4 2017: +0.6 percent QoQ, +1.9 percent YoY

2018-03-01

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2018-03-01

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) YoY, Q4 2017
Switzerland’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an above-average 0.6% in the 4th quarter of 2017.1 Growth was broad-based across the various business sectors, with manufacturing, construction and most service sectors, particularly financial services, providing momentum. On the expenditure side, growth was underpinned by consumption and investment in construction but was hindered by investment in equipment and foreign trade.

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Yanis Varoufakis – Bloody Sunday, Brexit & The Democratic Process

2018-02-28

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Yanis Varoufakis’s lecture delivered on Sunday 28th January 2018. Yanis was the former Greek Finance Minister who resigned when his Syriza government capitulated to EU demands. In 2016 he launched the democracy in Europe 2025 movement (DiEM 25). An acclaimed author and economist, his lecture explores these seemingly disparate themes.

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KOF Economic Barometer Stabilises at a High Level

2018-02-28

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2018-02-28

KOF Economic Barometer, February 2018
In February 2018, the KOF Economic Barometer rose by 0.4 points to a new reading of 108.0. After the previous month’s decline, it thus stabilised its position on a level clearly above its long-term average. This indicates that in the near future the Swiss economy should continue to grow at rates above average.

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Yanis Varoufakis on the urgency of collaboration on the world economy

2018-02-28

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“Do we need to have a great war to that which is absolutely necessary for the people?” Yanis Varoufakis speaks to us at SuperReturn International 2018 about the world economy and his views on the future private equity. Find out more about SuperReturn International 2018 at https://goo.gl/cgSswE.

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Sind Schwellenländer noch Aktienmärkte zweiter Klasse?

2018-02-28

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Der Fokus der Anlegerinnen und Anleger aus Deutschland liegt naturgemäß auf heimischen oder allenfalls amerikanischen Aktien. Aber wie sieht es mit den Aktienmärkten der Schwellenländer aus? Wie fundamental stark sind sie? Welche Standortqualitäten finden sich in China & Co.? Und welche Konkurrenz stellen sie in puncto Digitalisierung für die westliche Industriewelt dar? Robert Halver mit …

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Myths about Inequality | Marcel Fratzscher | TEDxHUBerlin

2018-02-27

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What are the myths about inequality? Where do they come from and is there any reasoning behind them? In his talk Prof. Fratzscher addresses common misconceptions about inequality. He analyzes main driving forces that contribute to the built up of inequality in the society and suggest the solutions of what can be done to address …

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Europe chart of the week – Business surveys

2018-02-27

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2018-02-27

There was a broad-based setback in euro area business surveys in February, whether in terms of country or of sector. The Flash composite PMI slipped to 57.5 in February from 58.8 in January. The month-to-month dip was the biggest since 2014. National business surveys painted a similar picture.

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Hans Werner Sinn Flüchtlinge Sind das nun die Facharbeiter

2018-02-27

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Link zum Original: Original Videobeschreibung: Hans-Werner Sinn vom Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (ifo Institut) erklärt wissenschaftlich warum Flüchtlinge und Migranten keine Facharbeiter sind und sich auch nicht in den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt integrieren lassen. Folgen: http://www.twitter.com/thempoli

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Employment barometer in the Q4 2017: Number of jobs rose by 0.8 percent YoY and 0.4 percent QoQ

2018-02-26

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2018-02-26

Switzerland Employment Level Q4 2017
In the 4th quarter 2017, total employment (number of jobs) rose by 0.8% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.4% with previous quarter). In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period rose by 0.6%. The Swiss economy counted 9000 more vacancies than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year (+16.8%) and the employment outlook indicator is also indicating an upward trend (+1.2%).

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Hans Werner Sinn BESTER VORTRAG Euro Desaster Europas Neugründung 12 20161

2018-02-25

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Hans-Werner Sinn BESTER VORTRAG – Flüchtlingewelle, Eurodesaster | Europas Neugründung 2017 der schwarze Juni Europa am Abgrund ▻ Mehr von . Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Hans-Werner Sinn sprach auf Einladung von Prof. Dr. Gunther Schnabl am 20. Juni 2017 an der Universität in Leipzig im Rahmen der Leipziger Wirtschaftspolitischen. Hans-Werner Sinn BESTER VORTRAG – …

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Less scope for yen and Swiss franc depreciation

2018-02-24

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2018-02-24

The start of the year has seen the Japanese yen and Swiss franc appreciate strongly against the US dollar (they rose by 5.6% and 4.4% respectively between 1 January and 22 February) despite higher US yields. However, this rise in US yields came with heightened market volatility, favouring safe haven currencies such as the yen and franc.

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Euro area: Flash PMI surveys pass their peak

2018-02-22

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2018-02-22

The IHS Markit flash composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the euro area eased to 57.5 in February from 58.8 in January, below consensus expectations (58.4). The index marked its the largest monthly decrease since August 2014. Activity in both services PMI (-1.3 points to 56.7) and manufacturing (-1.1 points to 58.5) cooled in February. But while the breakdown by sub-indices showed that the pace of growth in new orders and output slowed...

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