Category Archive: CHF

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Strong Swiss franc could be over reckons currency strategist at UBS

Tribune de Genève. After more than two years of a highly overvalued franc, relative to the euro, the currency should ease in the near term reckons Thomas Flury, senior currency strategist at UBS. He expects a euro to be worth 1.14 francs in 6 months and 1.16 within a year.

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New 20 Swiss franc note officially launched

The Swiss National Bank is the process of issuing new bank notes. A new 50 franc note hit the streets last year. Now it is the new 20 franc note’s turn. Officially launched today, it will enter circulation on 17 May 2017.

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SocGen: Beware The Ghost Of 1993

With Monday's financial media blasting reports about the VIX collapse to levels not seen in 24 years, going all the way back to 1993, it is worth remembering that the near record low volatility collapse of 1993 did not end well either for stocks, or for bonds, with the great 1994 bond tantrum. Reminding us of that, and of broader implications for the cross-asset space, is SocGen's Kit Juckes with his overnight note, "The ghost of 1993"

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Swiss National Bank releases new 20-franc note

Second ninth-series note showcases Switzerland’s creativity. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will begin issuing the new 20-franc note on 17 May 2017. It is the second of six denominations in the new banknote series to be released. The current eighth-series banknotes will remain legal tender until further notice.

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New 50 Swiss franc note wins international beauty contest

The new 50 franc note, launched last year, was voted the best new bank note in 2016 by the International Bank Note Society, a society founded in 1961. Nearly 120 new banknotes were released worldwide in 2016. The Swiss 50 only narrowly beat the Maldive Islands 1000 Rufiyaa bill, Argentina’s 500 Peso jaguar, and the Royal Bank of Scotland’s 5 Pound first polymer note.

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Euro gains against Swiss franc on French election result

The official French presidential election results place Emmanuel Macron (23.8%) and Marine Le Pen (21.5%) in first and second places in the first round of the French presidential race. The run off between these two will take place on 7 May 2017, when most forecasters expect Macron to win and become France’s next president.

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The Swiss Franc: The World’s Most Perplexing Currency?

Swiss policymakers consider their domestic currency (the franc, or CHF) to be significantly overvalued. Measures taken by the Swiss National Bank seem to corroborate this stance, holding its nominal overnight rates well into negative territory. Considering where the Fed and ECB are in their policy cycles and where the SNB is in its cycle, the USD and EUR are likely to appreciate against the CHF.

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The Swiss Franc Hits its Lowest Since December

According to some experts, the weaker franc can be partly explained by the market activities of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The cantonal bank of Thurgau said that the SNB appeared to be targeting a weaker franc ahead of the Dutch elections on Wednesday. Adding that they think an exchange rate of around 1.085 against the euro is possible.

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Switzerland ranked world’s worst currency manipulator

The Economist magazine placed Switzerland first in a recent ranking of currency manipulators. According to the analysis, China, commonly thought of as the world’s champion at keeping its currency’s value artificially low, appears to be doing the opposite: actively trying to push the value of its currency up. On the other hand, Switzerland that has been working hardest to artificially devalue its money.

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Video: Interest Rate Differentials Increasing Financial Market Leverage To Unsustainable Levels

We discuss the rate differentials between Switzerland, Britain, Europe, Japan and the United States and how this Developed Financial Markets carry trade is incentivizing excessive risk taking with tremendous leverage and destabilizing the entire financial system in the process in this video.

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Here Are The Best Hedges Against A Le Pen Victory

On Friday, after it emerged that as part of Marine Le Pen's strategic vision for France, should she win, is a return to the French franc as well as redenomination of some €1.7 billion in French (non-international law) bonds, both rating agencies and economists sounded the alarm, warning it would "amount to the largest sovereign default on record, nearly 10 times larger than the €200bn Greek debt restructuring in 2012, threatening chaos to the world...

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What Vice Costs – The World’s Cheapest (& Most Expensive) Countries For Drugs, Booze, & Cigarettes

Indulging in a weekly habit of drugs, booze and cigarettes can cost you as little as $41.40 in Laos and a whopping $1,441.50 in Japan, according to the Bloomberg Vice Index.

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Swiss franc less overvalued according to latest Big Mac index

On 12 January 2017, the Economist came out with its latest Big Mac index. Also known as the burger benchmark, the index compares the price of a Big Mac around the world. This catchy, if highly incomplete means of comparing the relative purchasing power of different currencies, uses the United States and the US$ as its base. Countries where Big Macs cost less than in the United States (in US$ terms) have weak currencies, and those where they are...

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How Derivatives Markets Responded to the De-Pegging of the Swiss Franc

In a Bank of England Financial Stability Paper, Olga Cielinska, Andreas Joseph, Ujwal Shreyas, John Tanner and Michalis Vasios analyze transactions on the Swiss Franc foreign exchange over-the-counter derivatives market around January 15, 2015, the day when the Swiss National Bank de-pegged the Swiss Franc. From the abstract.

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Swiss 10 year bond yields still negative, but approaching zero.

The global bond rout returned with a bang, sending 10Y US Treasury yields as much as six basis points higher to 2.53%, the highest level in over two years. The selloff happened as oil prices surged by more than 5% following Saturday's agreement by NOPEC nations agreed to slash production, leading to rising inflation pressures. At last check, the 10Y was trading at 2.505%, up from 2.462% at Friday and on track for its highest close since September...

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The War On Cash Is Happening Faster Than We Could Have Imagined

It’s happening faster than we could have ever imagined. Every time we turn around, it seems, there’s another major assault in the War on Cash. India is the most notable recent example– the embarrassing debacle a few weeks ago in which the government, overnight, “demonetized” its two largest denominations of cash, leaving an entire nation in chaos.

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THIS Time A Swiss Franc Hedge Makes More Sense

Money markets and the Swiss franc have diverged despite a presumed increase in event risk from the U.S. Presidential election. Moreover, shorts against the Swiss franc have risen. This surprising divergence opens up a presumed opportunity use the franc as a hedge against a surprise outcome from the election. This time I agree with the strategy even as I suspect that, once again, any subsequent incremental strength in the Swiss franc will be...

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Major Currency Pairs & The Election (Video)

We focus on the Election effects regarding the major currency pairs and the US Dollar in this video. Check out the Swiss Franc and the Mexican Peso Price Action after the election. This election has probably been great for CNN`s ratings, that would be a short after the election cycle is over.

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SNB Line in Sand Breaks, EUR/CHF under 1.08

We have always emphasized that the SNB intervenes between 1.08 and 1.0850. Even if there was no change in sight deposits the 1.08 "line in sand" broke.

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Risk Happens Fast

As a teenager brimming with testosterone my reptilian brain loved action movies. Top of my list were Steven Seagal movies. Clearly it wasn't for his acting skills, which are only marginally better than Barney the dinosaur. What I loved about Seagal was that he was both deadly and terribly fast.

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