Category Archive: CHF

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Global Stocks Rise On “Growth Optimism”, Ignore Political Turmoil; Dollar, Oil Creep Higher

S&P futures rose 0.1% on the last trading day of the month, trailing European and Asian markets boosted by China’s July Mfg. PMI, which despite declining from from 51.7 to 51.4, and missing expecations  of 51.5, saw the construction index rise to its highest level since December 13, sending Chinese iron ore futures surging and … Continue reading »

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Great Graphic: What Is the Swiss Franc Telling Us?

Swiss franc weakness is a function of the demand for euros. SNB indicates it will lag behind the other major central banks in normalization process. Easing of political anxiety in Europe is also negative for the franc.

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Swiss franc weakens to symbolic low

The Swiss franc has fallen to its lowest point since the January 2015 unpegging of the currency from the euro. The symbolic moment will be a huge relief to Swiss exporters and the tourism industry. As of Thursday morning, the franc was trading at 1.12 to the euro, a drop of 1.8 percent since Monday. It is the weakest level reached since the decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to remove the cap two-and-a-half years ago.

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Fighting inflation with FX, a real traders market

The much anticipated document (press release and link to full document) released by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the Trump administration aimed to reduce the U.S. trade deficit by improving access for U.S. goods exported to Canada and Mexico and contained the list of negotiating objectives for talks that are expected to begin in one month.

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Swiss franc more overvalued than 6 months ago according to Economist burger index

The Economist magazine’s 6-monthly Big Mac index shows the Swiss franc to be even more overvalued than it was in January 2017. The index, which compares the US$ price of a Big Mac around the world places Switzerland at the top with a price of US$ 6.74. This is 27.2% more expensive than the United States where the same burger costs US$ 5.30.

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Swiss franc outstrips other currencies over last 117 years

Recent analysis by Credit Suisse, London Business School and Cambridge Judge Business School shows the Swiss franc’s enduring strength. The reports says that for a small country with just 0.1% of the world’s population and less than 0.01% of its land mass, Switzerland punches well above its weight financially.

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Is the Central Bank’s Rigged Stock Market Ready to Crash on Schedule?

We just saw a major rift open in the US stock market that we haven’t seen since the dot-com bust in 1999. While the Dow rose by almost half a percent to a new all-time high, the NASDAQ, because it is heavier tech stocks, plunged almost 2%.

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Strong Swiss franc could be over reckons currency strategist at UBS

Tribune de Genève. After more than two years of a highly overvalued franc, relative to the euro, the currency should ease in the near term reckons Thomas Flury, senior currency strategist at UBS. He expects a euro to be worth 1.14 francs in 6 months and 1.16 within a year.

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New 20 Swiss franc note officially launched

The Swiss National Bank is the process of issuing new bank notes. A new 50 franc note hit the streets last year. Now it is the new 20 franc note’s turn. Officially launched today, it will enter circulation on 17 May 2017.

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SocGen: Beware The Ghost Of 1993

With Monday's financial media blasting reports about the VIX collapse to levels not seen in 24 years, going all the way back to 1993, it is worth remembering that the near record low volatility collapse of 1993 did not end well either for stocks, or for bonds, with the great 1994 bond tantrum. Reminding us of that, and of broader implications for the cross-asset space, is SocGen's Kit Juckes with his overnight note, "The ghost of 1993"

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Swiss National Bank releases new 20-franc note

Second ninth-series note showcases Switzerland’s creativity. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will begin issuing the new 20-franc note on 17 May 2017. It is the second of six denominations in the new banknote series to be released. The current eighth-series banknotes will remain legal tender until further notice.

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New 50 Swiss franc note wins international beauty contest

The new 50 franc note, launched last year, was voted the best new bank note in 2016 by the International Bank Note Society, a society founded in 1961. Nearly 120 new banknotes were released worldwide in 2016. The Swiss 50 only narrowly beat the Maldive Islands 1000 Rufiyaa bill, Argentina’s 500 Peso jaguar, and the Royal Bank of Scotland’s 5 Pound first polymer note.

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Euro gains against Swiss franc on French election result

The official French presidential election results place Emmanuel Macron (23.8%) and Marine Le Pen (21.5%) in first and second places in the first round of the French presidential race. The run off between these two will take place on 7 May 2017, when most forecasters expect Macron to win and become France’s next president.

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The Swiss Franc: The World’s Most Perplexing Currency?

Swiss policymakers consider their domestic currency (the franc, or CHF) to be significantly overvalued. Measures taken by the Swiss National Bank seem to corroborate this stance, holding its nominal overnight rates well into negative territory. Considering where the Fed and ECB are in their policy cycles and where the SNB is in its cycle, the USD and EUR are likely to appreciate against the CHF.

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The Swiss Franc Hits its Lowest Since December

According to some experts, the weaker franc can be partly explained by the market activities of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The cantonal bank of Thurgau said that the SNB appeared to be targeting a weaker franc ahead of the Dutch elections on Wednesday. Adding that they think an exchange rate of around 1.085 against the euro is possible.

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Switzerland ranked world’s worst currency manipulator

The Economist magazine placed Switzerland first in a recent ranking of currency manipulators. According to the analysis, China, commonly thought of as the world’s champion at keeping its currency’s value artificially low, appears to be doing the opposite: actively trying to push the value of its currency up. On the other hand, Switzerland that has been working hardest to artificially devalue its money.

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Video: Interest Rate Differentials Increasing Financial Market Leverage To Unsustainable Levels

We discuss the rate differentials between Switzerland, Britain, Europe, Japan and the United States and how this Developed Financial Markets carry trade is incentivizing excessive risk taking with tremendous leverage and destabilizing the entire financial system in the process in this video.

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Here Are The Best Hedges Against A Le Pen Victory

On Friday, after it emerged that as part of Marine Le Pen's strategic vision for France, should she win, is a return to the French franc as well as redenomination of some €1.7 billion in French (non-international law) bonds, both rating agencies and economists sounded the alarm, warning it would "amount to the largest sovereign default on record, nearly 10 times larger than the €200bn Greek debt restructuring in 2012, threatening chaos to the world...

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What Vice Costs – The World’s Cheapest (& Most Expensive) Countries For Drugs, Booze, & Cigarettes

Indulging in a weekly habit of drugs, booze and cigarettes can cost you as little as $41.40 in Laos and a whopping $1,441.50 in Japan, according to the Bloomberg Vice Index.

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Swiss franc less overvalued according to latest Big Mac index

On 12 January 2017, the Economist came out with its latest Big Mac index. Also known as the burger benchmark, the index compares the price of a Big Mac around the world. This catchy, if highly incomplete means of comparing the relative purchasing power of different currencies, uses the United States and the US$ as its base. Countries where Big Macs cost less than in the United States (in US$ terms) have weak currencies, and those where they are...

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