Category Archive: CHF

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Switzerland Was Right to Scrap Its Franc Cap, Economists Say

The Swiss National Bank’s surprise decision a year ago to remove its ceiling on the franc was justified, according to the vast majority of economists in Bloomberg’s monthly survey. The SNB abandoned the cap on Jan. 15 of last year, saying interventions to sustain it would have been out of proportion to its economic advantages. With the benefit of 12 months of hindsight, all but two of 23 economists answered that the move was indeed right.

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Square Holes And Currency Pegs

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog, When David Bowie died, everybody, in what they wrote and said, seemed to feel they owned him, and owned his death, even if they hadn’t thought about him, or listened to him, for years....

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Economic Forecasts for 2015: Swiss Banks were too Optimistic

Our analysis of the forecasts of economic data for 2015 shows that the Swiss banks were too optimistic for most data. US growth, the oil price, inflation and interest rates are far lower than expected. The errors for stock indices were smaller.

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Switzerland to vote on ending fractional reserve banking



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Will The Franc Follow In The Euro’s Footsteps?

The SNB's expected December 10 rate cuts have already been priced in to the Swiss Franc. The central bank's failure to do more than the market expected resulted in a stronger CHF. Growing uncertainty over the Fed's 2016 monetary policy is a bullish factor for the franc.

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Dollar Recoups January Loss Against the Swiss Franc

The US dollar recorded its high for the year against the Swiss franc on January 14 near CHF1.0240.  It closed that day a little below CHF1.0190.  The next day the Swiss National Bank surprised the world by lifting its cap against the euro.  The ...

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Lessons from History: The Volcker Moment and the First Cap on CHF



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Julius Bär’s Acket Talking Nonsense: Too Much Transparency on SNB Sight Deposits?

Julius Baer's Chief Economist Janwillem Acket argues that by publishing weekly sight deposits, the SNB is telling the market too much. George Dorgan responds that this hiding of economic data will need to happen also in trade data, in GDP data and even in the disclosure of Swiss company results. For Adam Button, this contradicts the people's desire of transparency.

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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal

Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.

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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms

George Dorgan shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measurement in the local currency. Effectively, Swiss real GDP rose by 15% in Euro terms, but fell slightly in CHF. He also emphasizes that Switzerland needs a big rebalancing of its economy, away from exports towards consumption. The Swiss National Bank was right to remove the euro peg. The move towards consumption is only possible when the Swiss franc is stronger because consumers will...

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The two phases of CHF appreciation… and what is in between

We show the two phases or "two innings" of Swiss franc appreciation: The risk aversion phase and the high inflation phase. With the weakening of emerging markets and the strengthening of the United States in 2013/2014, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had won the first battle in the war against financial market, the "risk aversion game", the first inning in two-part match. Risk aversion is lower because the United States recovered with weaker oil...

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The History of the Swiss Franc



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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods

In this post we will show the history of the Swiss Franc until 1971, a monetary era driven by the gold standard and the Bretton Woods period, both periods with nearly fixed exchange rates.

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Ex-Post FX Evaluation: Is the Swiss Capital Account Able to Neutralise the Persistent Current Account Surpluses?

(post written originally in March 2013) We reckon that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will have issues maintaining the EUR/CHF floor in the longer term, because the expected yields on Swiss investments abroad will not be sufficiently higher than the yield on investments in Switzerland. Because of this insufficient risk-reward relationship, outflows in the capital account of the Swiss balance of payments will not cover the persistent Swiss current...

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2) CHF



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Das Ende der Schweizer Sozialbürokratie dank bedingungslosem Grundeinkommen (BGE)



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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?

One of the most predictable consequences of the Swiss National Bank’s decision to stop suppressing the exchange rate between the franc and the euro was the whinging of Swiss exporters. That doesn’t mean the policy change was an error. If anything, it may help rebalance the Swiss economy away from its excessive dependence on exports towards greater levels of domestic consumption.

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End of EUR/CHF Peg

Selected essays on the end of the EUR/CHF peg

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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg

Colin Llyod gives a detailed explanation of the end of the EUR/CHF peg on Seeking Alpha. Most extracts come from George Dorgan, on snbchf.com

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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows

There is a straightforward answer to the question in the headline: more money has been trying to get into Switzerland than get out, which didn’t affect the exchange rate as long as the Swiss National Bank bought foreign currency. As soon as they stop...

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