Category Archive: CHF

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Risk Happens Fast

As a teenager brimming with testosterone my reptilian brain loved action movies. Top of my list were Steven Seagal movies. Clearly it wasn't for his acting skills, which are only marginally better than Barney the dinosaur. What I loved about Seagal was that he was both deadly and terribly fast.

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Swiss trains the most expensive in Europe

A study by GoEuro, compares the cost of travelling 100km by train. Switzerland led the ranking with the most costly train trips in Europe. Travelling 100km in Switzerland cost CHF 52.

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Cash in a box catches on as Swiss negative rates bite

It’s a sign the world is getting used to negative interest rates when what once seemed bizarre starts looking like the norm. Consider Switzerland, where more and more companies are taking out insurance policies to protect their cash hoards from theft or damage.

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Why Switzerland’s franc is still strong in four charts

Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan keeps saying the franc is “significantly overvalued.” And that’s despite the central bank’s record-low deposit rate and occasional currency market interventions.

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Switzerland has world’s priciest Big Macs. So eat Swiss chocolate instead.

The Economist invented the Big Mac index in 1986 as a tongue-in-cheek guide to currency valuations. Because the well-known burger is the same throughout much of the world, the magazine thought it could be used as a measure of how over or undervalued a currency was. An overpriced burger suggests an overvalued currency and a cheap one an undervalued currency.

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Greenspan explains negative Swiss Yields

For Alan Greenspan, negative Yield Reflect Spread between Italian and Swiss Bonds. For him, bond prices in general have risen too much.

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The relationship between CHF and gold

Many people think that Switzerland is related to gold due to its inflation-hedging safe-haven status. Historically this is true. With rising U.S. inflation in the 1970s gold appreciated to record-highs. So did the German Mark and even more the Swiss franc, that maintained low inflation levels.

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CHF Price Movements: Correlations between CHF and the German Economy

A big part of Swiss consumption is imported from Germany. Therefore Swiss inflation is often correlated to German inflation. Capital flows often move to Switzerland and Germany at the same time.

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Swiss Franc Trade-Weighted Index, Performance Far Worse than Dollar Index

On a three years interval, the Swiss Franc had a weak performance. The dollar index was far stronger. Contrary to popular believe, the CHF index gained only 1.73% in 2015. It lost 9.52% in 2014, when the dollar strongly improved.

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Swiss Bond Yields all Negative up to 30 years: Greatest Bubble in Financial History

Graham Summers says that central banks have lost control and investors are crazy. They pay the Swiss government for the right to own their bonds. One point is missing: Swiss rates are "more negative than others", because investors expect a slow appreciation of the Swiss franc.

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El-Erian: Cash is more valuable than ever

Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz Global Investors. says that Investors shouldn’t underestimate the role of cash in their portfolios We should add that the Swiss Franc is one of the most important havens for holding cash.

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Purchasing Power Parity, REER: Swiss Franc Overvalued?

Most economists, like the ones at the Swiss National Bank (SNB), claim that the franc is overvalued. Many use misleading Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) measures like the Big Mac index, the OECD index or the PPP based on consumer prices for computing fair values. The second big mistake is to compute the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) with the wrong "base year"The third error is to ignore massive Swiss current account surpluses, helped by high...

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In Surprising Development NIRP Starts To Work, Pushing Rich Swiss Savers Out Of Cash Into Stocks

One of the rising laments against NIRP is that far from forcing savers to shift from cash and buy risky (or less risky) assets, it has done the opposite. Intuitively this makes sense: savers expecting a return on the cash they have saved over the years are forced to save even more in a world of ZIRP or NIRP, as instead of living off the interest, they have to build up even more prinicpal.

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As Of This Moment, Barclays Is Not Accepting FX Stop Loss Orders

Anyone wondering why gaps and volatility in FX, and especially cable is reaching on the absured today, with 100 pips swings in minutes the norm, the reason is that there is virtually no liquidity.

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With Daily Record Lows: Chart of German Bund Yields Since 1977

The German Bund chart is very important for us, because the Swiss franc is negatively correlated to German government bond yields. The lower Bund yields, the stronger the Swiss Franc. When European governments and the ECB are ready to pay higher interest rates, then CHF depreciates.

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Need Safe havens: CHF or Gold?

In times of negative interest rates and falling earnings per share, gold is the ultimate safe haven. Due to negative rates, it is not the Swiss Franc.

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Futures Ignore Apple Plunge; Oil Rises Above $45 As Yellen Looms

For those who thought that the world's biggest company losing over $40 billion in market cap in an instant on disappointing Apple earnings, would have been sufficient to put a dent in US equity futures, we have some disappointing news: with just over...

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Swiss GDP and Swiss Franc Shock Propaganda

For George Dorgan the "Swiss Franc Shock" celebrated by the Swiss press did not affect the Net Exports component of Swiss GDP, but it rather suppressed growth in consumption. Therefore the Swiss economy could not replace lost export jobs by new jobs in the internal economy.

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Global Stocks Soar On Stimulus Hopes After Miserable Chinese, Japanese Data; Short Squeeze

Bad news is once again good news... for stocks that is.  After a month and a half of markets unable to decide if they should buy or sell on ugly data, over the weekend, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan expressed faith in the economy, ...

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Weak CHF during the Fat Years of the Joseph Cycle

In December 2015, the seven year Joseph cycle ended with a Fed rate hike. These lean years of the Joseph cycle started in December 2008 when the Fed lowered rates to the current level. We think that in the next seven year cycle, even the risk-averse Swiss investors will buy more foreign assets, not only the central bank and speculators. Different crises have passed in the three parts of the world, the U.S. subprime, the euro crisis and the Emerging...

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