Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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“Moderation” is a Polite Term for “Recession”

2022-08-18

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(8/18/22) It's College Move-in Week; parsing the latest meeting minutes of the FOMC: Markets rally despite economic backdrop; why retail sales numbers aren't what they seem: We're spending more, getting less; the lag-effect of Fed policy; How FOMC Meeting minutes are "crafted" for release; Hawks and Doves: There's something for everyone. Code words the Fed uses. Ice cream vs Bagels; Cheeseburgers vs salads; health in retirement; Gravity...

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Will the FOMC Meeting Minutes Reveal a Dovish Stance?| 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-17

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(8/17/22) Markets are already up 17% from the last lows, making for an incredible run-up and an about-face from mid-July's pessimism to the current state of euphoria. Two things to keep in mind today: The most recent FOMC Meeting minutes will be revealed, with many looking for a more dovish slant from the Fed, anticipating a stall in rate hikes sooner than later. Markets are now two standard deviations above the 50-DMA, and markets will have...

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Should You Be “All-In” Now?

2022-08-17

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(8/17/22) Retailers' earnings reports and forecasts are painting a gloomy picture in contrast to Wall Street's cheerleaders: Target's earnings (and what they did to liquidate surplus inventory) is a cautionary tale. FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released today, expected to reveal the Fed's proclivities about future rate hikes. If you assume we're in a Bear market, you must also presume there has to be a rally. Should you be al-in, or not? How...

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Market Correction Would Be No Surprise | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-16

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(8/16/22) Markets have been on a rallying tear since May; unfortunately, these bull rallies do not have an unlimited life, and after ten-weeks of this action, markets are very over-bought, and at this point, historically, there have always been corrections along the way to re-test support. So a correction to about 4,000 on the S&P would be no surprise and would provide a decent entry point for adding a little more equity exposure to your...

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Biden Bill Will Cause HIGHER Inflation (8/16/22)

2022-08-16

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(8/16/22) We might not yet be in Recession, but the stage is being set for one; if the Fed has to cut rates, the underlying reason will not bode well for markets. What has happened to demand? Biden bill to reduce inflation will not have much effect, but will cause higher inflation, negative GDP, and job losses; will also result in more IRS audits for middle class. Congress can defund in 2024. 2:59 - In Search of Markets' Higher High: Correction to...

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Markets Bullish on a Short Term Basis| 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-15

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(8/15/22) arkets are very bullish on a short-term basis, and are set to test the 200-DA; that's hard to believe with all the negative economic data that's currently about. Think that's weird? arkets are markets, and they tend to lead the economy, rather than lag. But it's way too early to determine whether markets are telling us the worst of the economic downdraft is behind us. If markets continue to advance, a pullback to support would then...

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Why Earnings Estimates Don’t Matter Any More

2022-08-15

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(8/15/22) Will the impact of inflation on household budgets spur the Fed to back-off rate hike campaign? The bigger question is when might the Fed not just stop the hikes, but reverse the direction of rates? Technical commentary on the Bull vs Bears Battle Royale: How does a bull market continue amidst overwhelming, negative indicators? What could possibly go wrong with the IRS hiring armed agents with the ability to use deadly force? The...

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Why the IRS Needs Armed Agents

2022-08-13

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Markets' counter-trend rally despite no changes fundamentally; "Inflation" and "easing" shouldn't be in the same sentence; Janet Yellen as "Grand Theft Granny:" Why the IRS needs armed agents; now is the time for all good men to trim equity exposure; why "The Flintstones," "Bewitched," and "Leave it to Beaver" could never be produced today;

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Inflation Lower Than Expected | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-11

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(8/11/22) Inflation came in less than expected, spurring stocks higher, as expected. The 0% print was almost entirely due to falling energy prices, but without that variable, CPI actually rose a bit, with Core CPI still in positive territory.

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Are Prices “Stickier” Than We Think?

2022-08-11

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(8/11/22) Markets' aftermath of a flat CPI print: Has inflation peaked? Markets' 50% retracement of previous decline: What's the difference between a bear market and a correction? World Record Ghost Pepper eater; Markets' response to 0% inflation print (and what this really means); the Fed is tricky--the fallacy of "core" inflation; Are prices "stickier" than we think? The challenge of an unstable economic environment; the fallout from pandemic:...

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Building a Promo (8/10/22): If you’re going to run a test feed, might as well try to make it ente…

2022-08-10

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#Markets #Money #Investing

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Waiting on the Inflation Print | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-10

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Markets have rallied up into resistance over the past few days, consolidating at previous resistance levels, waiting on today's inflation print. [NOTE: At 7:30a CDT, CPI reported "cooler" than expected, at 8.5% year over year.] Weaker inflation will be interpreted as being good for stocks, because the Fed may be compelled to slow their aggressive rate hike campaign. Regardless, markets are very overbought on a short-term basis.

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Anticipating Today’s CPI (8/10/22)

2022-08-10

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(8/10/22) Going back to school in a Recession: July CPI anticipation [NOTE: At 7:30a CDT, CPI reported "cooler" than expected, at 8.5% year over year], and watching the Yield Curve; NFIB sales expectations are plummeting; workers becoming less productive as wages rise; higher prices are being passed on to consumers; childhood diseases & garden hose immunity; Market Commentary: betting on the Fed to pivot; stock analysis: who's down 20%?

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Is the Fed Close to the End? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-09

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(8/9/22) The debates are raging over whether we're seeing the dawning of a new Bull Market, or only a continuation of a Bear Market rally. Who'll be correct? More importantly, what should YOU do at this juncture? Markets have been improving, technically...a nice pattern of rising tops and bottoms has led markets back up to resistance levels from June of this year. If markets fail from this point, it will confirm the Bear Market Rally; however,...

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The Pandemic Effect (8/9/22)

2022-08-09

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(8/9/22) Bemoaning the death of Olivia Newton-John and the loss of our youth; markets' behavior because there's no pressure on the Fed to pivot. Yet. Why flat beer may be the next thing: CO2 shortage, The Roberts' Family vacation: Driving in Italy and Yacht price inflation; hypocrisy of Millennials decrying capitalism on iPhones; NVIDIA & Peloton performance: The post-pandemic effect; lower expectations reflect return to "normal;"...

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Is the Markets’ Bullish Mood Just Hype?| 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-08

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(8/8/22) Negative market sentiment should lead to lower equity prices, but in the short-term, some bullish patterns emerge. Markets' three-week rally is tempting the media to hype the new, bullish mood. Markets still have a lot of work ahead as the Fed hikes rates and tightens policy in its inflation fight,. That's going to lower economic activity, which will, in turn, force stocks to reprice for that. If markets pull-back, where will support be...

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When Inflation Reduction Becomes Climate Change (8/8/22)

2022-08-08

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(8/8/22) The so-called "Inflation Reduction" Act gets a fresh skin, but it's the same old wine, and its impact on inflation will be to exacerbate the problem further. The newly re-named the "Climate Change & Tax Act" is the same old tax & spend bill as before; the devil is in the details. How the math really works, and why inflation will be lower in 2023, but not down to the Fed's 2% target. 10% of the bill will fund...

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Why the “Inflation Reduction” Act Will Make Things Worse

2022-08-06

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(8/5/22) Today's Jobs Report should shed some light on what companies have been thinking as the economy wanes; are there more layoffs to come? The Inflation Reduction Bill will have unintended consequences; how inflation is hitting back to school expenses; dealing with the question of IRA Conversions; the exceptions to the rule: 72-T. How to leave a legacy with IRA's; investment scams we're seeing; how to keep more of your money and avoid the...

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Has a New Bull Market Started? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-04

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(8/4/22) Markets have been due for a rally following extremes in negative sentiment and positioning by fund managers and hedge funds. The extreme bearishness meant there were no sellers left in the market, setting up for a buying frenzy. Now the headlines are heralding a "new bull market" that "you've got to get in." The markets are predicting the Fed will pivot...BUT, the Fed is saying no such thing, with Fed Pres. Bullard...

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Credit Card Use is Off The Charts!

2022-08-04

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(8/4/22) With too many bears in the markets, and no won left to sell, markets needed a rally to suck bulls back in for one, last ride before The Recession. The unbelievable tone-deafness of SF Fed President Mary Daly; what the increase in credit card usage means; how aggressive will the Fed be in raising rates ahead of Recession? Dueling Farmer's Almanacs differ on the severity of the coming Winter; cooking on the hood of your car in Texas;...

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