Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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How to Invest in a Goldilocks Economy

2023-02-02

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(2/2/23) Fed Chair Jerome Powell is more concerned about "disinflation" than financial conditions, as evidenced by the Fed's quarter-point rate increase, and shift in stance on inflation; subsequent market upside may be limited to 100-points. Disinflation vs Deflation. Ground Hog Day again, and again, and again...Fed Meeting recap: The Fed got it wrong about "transitory," and doesn't want to be wrong again. Three choices for the...

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How Hawkish Will Jerome Powell Be?

2023-02-01

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(2/1/23) It's Fed Day--just how hawkish will Jerome Powell be at this afternoon's presser? We review a brief history of financial conditions that have driven past Fed decisions. One risk to keep in mind: None of the previous Fed rate hikes have yet to show up in the financial data, and even markets are operating ahead of reality. Markets are currently behaving in a fashion that historically would be considered bullish. What you should know about...

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Financial Housekeeping (1/28/23)

2023-01-31

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Here is an encore presentation of the January 28, 2023 Candid Coffee on Financial Housekeeping for the New Year: Helpful tips and talk for cleaning up your finances. 0:00 - Welcome & Disclaimer 1:25 - What Financial Independence Means 4:09 - Your Financial DNA 8:25 - Using Financial Guardrails - Annuities & Primary Residence 14:30 - Avoid Crossing Personal Financial Boundaries 18:00 - Lending to Others from the Bank of Mom & Dad 24:00 -...

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It’s Pre-Fed Meeting Day

2023-01-31

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(1/31/23) It's pre-Fed Meeting Day, and all eyes on Jerome Powell's comments tomorrow: Markets are predicting a much lower interest rate increase than the Fed has said. "Don't fight the Fed" has been thrown out the window. FOMO now is the fear of missing the market bottom. The Fed's challenge is navigating the economy without going too far and causing recession. Markets are anticipating the Fed will give up the fight. The US Dollar is not...

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Will the Fed Disappoint on Wednesday?

2023-01-30

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(1/30/23) As January comes to a positive close, investors face a wall of worry: A cluster of moving averages are trending upward, a near-record level of cash in money markets, and what if the Fed cuts rates in July? Ah-ha, but what if the Fed raises rates this week by a half-point instead of a quarter?? What will Jerome Powell say? Philadelphian's climbing greased poles to celebrate Eagles' advance to Super Bowl 57; Louisiana Senator John Kennedy's...

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Is Working From Home Really More Productive?

2023-01-28

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(1/27/23) Oil is the new Tech; is the Fed making a mistake with .25bp rate increases instead of .50? Is this still the 'Year of the Bond'? Richard Rosso's Davos Song; Medicare Advantage messiness; Tiny Homes on the On-Ramp; living outside the city and Texas Hill Country land prices; Working remote and productivity; termination by email; work from home time savings; "Transitory" returns to the media vernacular; inflation, eggs prices, and...

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Family Limited Partnerships (1/12/23)

2023-01-27

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Here is an encore presentation of the January 12, 2023 Lunch & Learn on Family Limited Partnerships with RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, with Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP, and Doren-Mayhew CPA, Chris Masters. ---- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit...

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The Unintended (Awful) Consequences of ETF Investing

2023-01-26

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(1/26/23) What happened to the Market selloff? If the Fed goes "dovish" next week, the subsequent rally will be ON, and you'll have only one chance to catch it. The challenges of stock-picking in 2023 because of passive indexing. The conundrum of market volatility and the VIX "Fear Gauge;" the Zero-DTE activity surge is not measured in the VIX. The danger in next week's Fed Meeting: What Powell says afterwards. Rate hikes are...

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How to Pay Zero in Taxes Without Cheating

2023-01-25

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(1/25/23) What happens at Microsoft following this week's earnings report will be very telling: Pay attention to the outlook commentary, not so much the numbers: are companies pricing-in a soft-landing vs Recession? Markets tend to "trough" 6-9 months before companies' earnings do; Corruption in Ukraine: War is profitable, peace is not. Layoffs are expanding beyond the Tech sector; the aftermath of over-hiring during pandemic. How to pay...

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Carbon Credits Are the Scam of the Century

2023-01-24

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(1/24/23) There's too much bearishness in the markets, which reminds us of a lyric from Loverboy, "Everyone's watching to see what you will do..." Markets have traded sideways since June 2022. Earnings Season is underway in earnest; what companies say is more important than the numbers they report; The WEF: It's really all about keeping the Rich rich; offsetting effects of private jet travel by buying carbon credits, the scam of the...

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Why Small Businesses are More Optimistic

2023-01-23

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(1/23/23) Despite a Fed focused on hiking rates beyond 5%, Treasury Markets are calling for a different scenario, which could result in a softer approach by the FOMC. What is the impact on Google, Microsoft, and Bing from ChatGPT? Markets are forming bottoms with higher lows. What's the linkage between increasing middle-aged suicides and not going to church? what happens with a negative view and no hope. NFISB survey: why business expectations are...

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The Fed Calls for More Rate Hikes

2023-01-19

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(1/19/23) The Fed Whisperer says there are more rate hikes coming, despite the weight of inflation on markets & the economy. Retail Sales in December were off more than 1% (and 70% of the economy is consumer-driven). Stil to come will be the recessionary effect on earnings, as well as the lag effect of rate hikes. Debt Ceiling Deadline: There will be no default; the Crypto crunch; meanwhile, the same Fed rhetoric: More Rate Hikes to come. When...

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Digesting the Secure Act 2.0

2023-01-18

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(1/20/23) The basics of Estate Planning: How to begin? The confusion in Required Minimum Distributions (RMD); Why the Roth is not going away; excess 529 transfers to Roths. SEG-1: Estate Plan Basics SEG-2: The Laughable Price Index (LPI) Digesting the Secure Act 2-0 Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch the full shows...

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Where are the Investing Opportunities this Year?

2023-01-18

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(1/18/23) Markets are doing exactly the opposite of what the Federal Reserve would like, creating an investor dichotomy: Investors are optimistic, despite worrisome economics; earnings and outlooks are weaker. The "new" 60/40 Portfolio; the Bank of Japan's economic theories clash with reality; what's the possible effect on oil from China's GDP "results?" Deciding between Stocks and ETF's in a volatile market; College classes for...

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The Truth About the Debt Ceiling

2023-01-17

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(1/17/23) Markets continue to rally despite the Fed's intentions; will the next FOMC Meeting spell the last of the Fed's rate hikes? Raising the Debt Ceiling (hey, why even have one??) vs government shutdown, and why that wouldn't be such a bad thing, really; the pain trade and statistical precedent; the truth behind government debt and the political kabuki theatre that is the Debt Ceiling argument. Again. Watch for accounting tricks as Big Banks...

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What’s Parked in Your Financial Garage?

2023-01-13

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(1/13/23) "At the end, all we are are our stories:" A deep-dive into the process of starting and completing an Estate Plan. It's not for you, it's for your family. Bank earnings & interest rates; what's parked in your financial garage? The lives & deaths of the rich & famous: Jeff Beck, Lisa Marie Presley, Aretha Franklin's estate (non) planning: How to achieve immortality. What about your online legacy? Prince Harry's...

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Inflation Day! (1/23/23): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strateg…

2023-01-12

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#Markets #Money #Investment_Advice

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The 118th Congress: A Return to the Basics?

2023-01-11

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(1/16/23) What was the McCarthy Speakership really all about? Are we seeing a reversion to pre-Obamamian rules in Congress: No more omnibus bills, and no more stimmie checks, either. Why there's a viable risk for lower earnings this year. The new Congress is considering de-funding all those additional IRS Agents; meanwhile, the IRS is helping cope with Inflation by raising the standard deduction: Do you know your effective tax rate? Who really pays...

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How the IRS is Helping You Cope with Inflation

2023-01-11

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(1/11/23) Fed Head Jerome Powell's expected speech in Sweden Tuesday underwhelmed on content, creating impetus for markets to rally; think: Why would the Fed cut rates now if things are "fine"? The new Congress is considering de-funding all those additional IRS Agents; meanwhile, the IRS is helping cope with Inflation by raising the standard deduction: Do you know your effective tax rate? Who really pays taxes...and who doesn't? Why the...

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Reverting to Pre-Obamamian Rules in Congress

2023-01-10

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(1/10/23) As goes January, so goes the year on Wall St. Will Fed Chair Jerome Powell disappoint investors with this week's presentation? A correction with no more stimulus should be no surprise, but it's not the end of the world, either. As the stimulus bolus works its way through the alimentary canal of the economy, where do you want to be (and where is the contrarian place to be)? What the McCarthy Speakership was really all about: reverting to...

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