Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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All I Want for Christmas is a Gift of Stocks

2022-11-30

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(11/30/22) The US beats Iran in World Soccer, and markets gird up for the last Fed speech of the year by Jerome Powell; that will be the big market mover today, in addition to economic releases of Q3 CPI and Home Sales; We looks at the concept of stock gifting for Christmas, along with the tax implications, qualified charitable donations, and end of year IRA contributions; other end-of-year hurdles include Required Minimum Distributions, and the...

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Bullard: No Pivot In Sight | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-11-29

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(11/29/22) Merriam-Webster's Word of the Year: "Gaslighting," which is what markets have been doing to investors all year. The Fed, however, has been very clear about its intention to continue to hike interest rates to stem the surging inflation. And yet...and yet, markets have continued to rally on hopes the Fed will "pivot." Markets finally got the message Monday and sold off. With the 20-DMA and the 100-DMA now very close...

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There’s No Such Thing as a “Soft” Recession

2022-11-29

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(11/29/22) Who's been gaslighting investors into thinking the Fed is going to suddenly pivot from its course of hiking rates to tame inflation? The Fed doesn't like it when markets rally, and the Fed has been clear more rate hikes are to come. Key to watch the VIX; why we're reducing exposure to energy stocks. The Fed is afraid inflation will become entrenched; we take a look at the history of markets and Fed responses; investors have been trained...

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Will the Thanksgiving Rally Continue? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-11-28

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(11/28/22) Markets rallied nicely in a holiday-shortened trading week with very light volume. Wednesday's release of the FOMC meeting minutes suggested the Fed would be reducing the pace of its interest rate hikes moving into next year. Markets continue in a very nicely defined uptrend. The 200-DMA will become a key level of resistance, keeping pressure on prices. Markets are getting over bought. The MACD Buy signal is getting over extended; any...

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Was Black Friday a Bust?

2022-11-28

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(11/28/22) Was Black Friday a bust? It's make-or-break time for Wall Street: Retail Sales numbers are nominal, and do not taking into consideration inflation impact: 78% jump in lay-away purchasing; stocks are trying to re-price-in downwardly revised earnings estimates. FOMC Meeting Minutes tend to suggest a terminal interest rate of 5.25%. Why do retail sales matter? 70% of GDP; markets are trying to price-in "reversion to normalcy;" how...

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Buy Backs Continue Market Support | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-11-23

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(11/23/22) Markets achieved a nice 1% rally Tuesday, with traders taking bets things will improve as 2022 winds-down. Stock buy backs helped support buying activity. The trading range remains very tight as the 20-DMA keeps moving up to support at the 100-DMA. Resistance, however, continues to fall with the 200-DMA moving down to the top of the trading range. Post-Thanksgiving, we'll be needing to see a stronger rally above the 200-DMA if we're...

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Warnings Are Still Falling, Just Not as Badly

2022-11-23

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(11/23/22) The Big Conundrum for next year is, 'what's going to happen?' It's important to leave portfolios open to the possibility of Recession, even though, if so, it would be The-Most-Anticipated Recession in history. What will FOMC Meeting Minutes reveal, and what is the "terminal rate" that ends Fed rate hikes? The cost of Thanksgiving is going up, and Black Friday spending will be an economic "tell" for the future. Is the...

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Will This Be a November to Remember?

2022-11-22

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(11/24/22) Why would the Fed pivot? When it does, it won't be good for equities. How is the crypto-phenomenon like the sub-prime crisis of bygone days? A discussion of what "pivot" is and is not; a comparison of economics, then and now; The Fed's rate hikes this year haven't hit yet, but when they do... the "lag effect" is being under-calculated. SEG-1: Why Would the Fed Pivot? SEG-2: What Happens When Debt Begins to Default?...

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Was FTX Worse than Enron?

2022-11-22

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(11/25/22) The once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for converting IRA's to Roths; dealing with charitable donations; Was FTX worse than Enron? Stanford? Carvana's incredible demise; fear & greed never change. SEG-1: The SBF Chia Pet; Scheissters SEG-2: Roth Conversion Opportunities Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --------...

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Markets Going Nowhere | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-11-22

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(11/22/22) Markets are trying their best to mount a rally during the holiday-shortened week, but are only up 2% so far for the month of November. Thats hard to comprehend following that 5% jump following that strong CPI report. Since then, markets have not really gone anywhere. With many traders out this week, there's not much activity or volume to drive markets. But as markets consolidate above the 100-DMA, it's allowing the 20-DMA to play...

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Why The Fed Wants More Unemployed

2022-11-22

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(11/22/22) Market movement can best be described as sideways, up only 2% for November. Oil Stocks are down 20% while energy stocks are only off 5%; so why would the Fed pivot? When it does, it won't be good for equities. How is the crypto-phenomenon like the sub-prime crisis of bygone days? A discussion of what "pivot" is and is not; The Fed wants to take pressure off the labor market, and would be fine with 5% unemployment as a means of...

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Have Markets Found the Bottom? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-11-21

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(11/21/22) The inmates are running the asylum during this holiday-shortened trading week, making for higher volatility on lighter trading volume. Last week markets bounced right off the 100-DMA to rally, tested support, and bounced off of that to turn previous resistance into support, with a follow-through rally on Friday. Markets are now just below the 200-DMA, and look to open a little weakly this morning. The 20-DMA has crossed above the 50-DMA,...

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Bob is Back (at Disney)

2022-11-21

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(11/21/22) It's the Week of Thanksgiving, and up and down on the Street, traders are vacationing before Year's End they will meet. Will there be a Recession in 2023? The markets' final outcome remains to be seen. Iger's back at Disney, and the Yield Curves are spread, with hopes of a Santa Claus rally dancing in their heads. The FTX fail has raised such a clatter; will the SEC really find what's the matter? As 2022 draws to a close, the final...

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Preparing for Inevitable Higher Taxes

2022-11-18

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(11/18/22) There is no Fed pivot in sight, and denial in the markets is high; repercussions of the COVID lockdown are still being felt; credit card debt, HELOC debt is on the rise. A generation of bailed-out citizens. The once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for converting IRA's to Roths; dealing with charitable donations; Was FTX worse than Enron? Stanford? Carvana's incredible demise; fear & greed never change. Conversations you should have this...

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2022 Year-end Economic Review

2022-11-17

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Here is an encore presentation of the November 15, 2022 Lunch & Learn. our Year End Economic Review with RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP, and special guest Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts. 01:00 - That Was the Year That Was 03:52 - What to do with Cash? 08:55 - The Wisdom in Buying Bonds Why Inflation Doesn't Really Matter over the long haul Safer is Always Better:...

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The Fed’s Anti-Inflation Campaign is Good for Bonds | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-11-17

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(11/17/22) Markets rallied towards our target of 4,100, but failed short of the goal. We're looking for some follow-through selling this morning; a retracement towards support won't be surprising. Markets are still on a buy-signal, but getting a bit extended. The risk is in a violation of both the 20- and 50-DMA. Inflation data of late supporting this market rally, and hopes of a Fed pivot, is also helping bonds. Weakening inflation is good for...

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Is FTX a ‘Lehman Moment?’

2022-11-17

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(11/17/22) There's a problem with market rallies: The Fed doesn't like 'em. Estimates for Q4 GDP = 4.4% The tell will be Christmas sales; what are valuations telling us? Price must adjust for lower earnings. Things are starting to crack in financial markets; things we see during boom times vs bust times corrections: The Fed's Goal is to pull excess out of the markets. No question the Fed will pivot: But When?? FTX is not a "Lehman...

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Retail Sales & False Confidence | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-11-16

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(11/16/22) [NOTE: This segment recorded before Retail Sales figures for October was reported at +1.3%, vs the anticipated 1.2%% increase] Markets were waiting for October's Retail Sales report, expected to be strongly influenced by data from California, which is a large consumer-state. Cali Gov. Gavin Newsom last month issued more stimulus checks to offset inflation and higher fuel prices. The artificially spurred spending is expected to have...

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Market Wake-up Call Episode (11/16/22): Market Analysis & Personal Finance commentary from RIA Ad…

2022-11-16

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Will Inflation Data Pump Market Momentum? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-11-15

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(11/15/22) [NOTE: This segment recorded before PPI for October was reported at +0.2%, vs the anticipated 0.4% increase] Markets were waiting for October's Producer Price Index report, expected to come down a bit as sings of economic slowing have been more apparent of late. Yesterday, Federal Reserve Vice-president Lael Brainard hinted the Fed could be close to easing the pace of its rate hikes. Could this, coupled with the cooler inflation number...

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