Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Why Hasn’t the Fed Panicked Yet?

2023-04-17

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(4/17/23) Earnings Season is underway, and the reports we receive from regional banks could reveal a more accurate picture of the economy from a localized perspective. CEO Confidence was not good at the end of 2022; what will Q-1 statements reflect? Markets continue trend of bottoming higher: Why? Liz Ann Sonders/Charles Schwab posits we are seeing a "rolling recession" instead of a sudden, bottom fall out recession. Why hasn't the Fed...

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Is Social Security About to Go Bankrupt?

2023-04-14

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(4/14/23) Big Banks quarterly reporting headlines today's financial news; what's the best use for a brick & mortar bank in your personal finances? The challenges to small businesses, CPI stickiness means no Fed pivot. Refinancing Treasueries will expose more cracks in the economy with higher cost of debt. Why this will be a "White-collar Recession." the OAISD Report on Social Security solvency; France' pension protests, and the...

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The De-Dollarization of Reserve Currency

2023-04-13

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(4/13/23) March Inflation seemed to soften, but a look at core inflation metrics shows higher prices are still pretty sticky, providing no evidence the Fed will be inclined to pause rate hikes, much less cut rates. FOMC minutes reveal discussion of a "mild" recession. That's like being "mildly" dead. The significance of the NASDAQ being where it was 2-years ago: No gains. The March CPI Report: Nothing Burger or ham on rye?...

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Why Are Banks Losing Money on Mortgages?

2023-04-12

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(4/12/23) With many investors heavily shorted in the market, today's Inflation Report could spell success or failure (CPI clocked-in at a cooler-than-expected 5% rate of inflation, year over year). Chances for volatility are high in today's trading session as markets near the upper end of the current rally. Oil price increases have yet to appear in CPI numbers, generally three months behind. Gold is very over-bought. NASDAQ is overbought. A...

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Will Inflation Weaken Enough to Cause a Fed Pause?

2023-04-11

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(4/11/23) Lots of Fed speakers are on deck this week, along with data releases with the latest measure of inflation: Will numbers indicate a weakening sufficient to cause the Fed to pause rate hikes? Markets continue to do well; why we trimmed out positions in the NASDAQ; Why did PC sales take a dive? Markets may be a bit ahead of reality. Why a lack of bullishness in the markets is a good thing; markets returns expectations vs reality; avoiding...

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What a Fed Rate Cut Would Really Mean

2023-04-10

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(4/10/23) Anticipated data in the week ahead should bolster the position of the Fed in not cutting interest rates anytime soon; labor participation rates are still not up to pre-pandemic levels; inflationary pressures on markets remain. Markets are betting on no recession and the Fed to cut rates, but fail to recognize the ramifications of the Fed needing to cut rates. "Millennial" ratings season begins: Everyone gets a trophy. S&P...

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Social Security Changes You Need to Know (4/7/23)

2023-04-06

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(4/7/23) There are some coming adjustments to Social Security earnings thresholds about which retirees or near-retirees should be aware. Danny and Rich also discuss the benefits of beloning...to the Senior Citizens' League. The Great Un-Retirement and marge & Janet close the show. Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer...

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Did the Fed Put Too Much Money in the System?

2023-04-06

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(4/6/23) Why do Jobless Claims Matter? What do to about Gold? Chipotle's Peppergate and Bud Light's marketing gaffe: No such thing as "bad ink?" The CitiGroup Economic Surprise Index is on the rise: Data is coming in stronger-than-expected, which is not such a surprise considering all the doom and gloom last year. Analysts are optimistic, but first signs of trouble may show up in Jobless numbers; Markets may not be a strong as thought...

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Did the Fed Just Float a Rate Hike Trial Balloon?

2023-04-05

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(4/5/23) Markets sell-off, as predicted; Jobs data disappoints, with more to come from ADP & Labor Dept.: Could this be the first cracks in economic data? Market dichotomy of good performance with weak economic data. Are markets predicting a turn? Why are markets rallying on hopes of a Fed pivot (and what such pivot would indicate about the economy)? Markets are resting on support, retesting the 50-DMA. Why do majority of Gen-Z get their news...

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Don’t Be Foolish About Long Term Care (4/1/23)

2023-04-04

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27:54 -(4-1-23) Long term Care is a hot topic, with lots of twists and turns. This is The One Topic about which we regularly receive lots of questions. Danny and Rich go through the basics and some of the details about Long Term Care costs, coverages, and concerns. 0:00 - Intro/Disclaimer/Agenda 2:12 - What is Long Term Care? 3:20 - What Qualifies as Long Term Care? 5:48 - Long Term Care Realities 9:10 - RIA's Financial Guardrails for LTC 14:14 -...

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Was October’s Low the Markets’ Bottom? .

2023-04-04

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(4/4/23) The Credit Suisse shareholders' meeting is not likely to be a fun one. Markets are showing signs of exhaustion; there's nothing much standing in the way (do far) of markets achieving 4,200, despite contrary economic conditions. Markets have continued to establish higher lows since October. What to do when Climate Activists break-in to your house. Opposing market views & psychological biases. How personal biases affect investment...

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Will Oil Roil the Markets?

2023-04-03

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(4/3/23) April marks the launch of another earnings season cycle and the start of Q2 with a decidedly positive market bias. OPEC+ production cuts hikes oil to $80bbl, fueling more inflation = more Fed rate hikes. Analysts are now expecting Q1 to have been the trough, q2 to show economic improvement: Not good for the Fed, creating a battle between what the Fed wants and what the markets are thinking. It's important to note the significance of oil...

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More Than 50% of Americans are Under-prepared for Retirement

2023-03-31

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(3/31/23) April Fools' realities and cartoon disclaimers: the stupidity risk in the banking sector when the government backstops everything: the markets have essentially been socialized. How long before the Fed pivot; inflation is here to stay. There's a difference between retirement care and long term care; retirees are getting younger: 55 is the new 40. American preparedness for retirement is bleak; more than half are under-prepared. How we got...

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Currency Consequences of US Foreign Policy | Lance Roberts #Shorts

2023-03-30

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(3/30/23) "Don't take a headline and that point say, 'Oh, I've gotta get out of the Dollar now because the Dollar is going to Hell in a handbasket because France is doing this deal with China and the Yuan.' Sure, will the Dollar eventually lose its currency reserve status? Possibly, one day, maybe. I'm not saying it can't happen. The question you've gotta ask yourself is, 'Does the world want to trade with China and the Yuan?' You've got to...

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Fed Pivot? (3/30/23): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist,…

2023-03-30

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Life Wisdom from the Mouths of Babes | Lance Roberts #Shorts

2023-03-29

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(3/29/23) "Kids are awesome between the ages of zero and ten...(yeah)...they are awesome kids; you get to play with them, Legos', I mean, you name it...I love kids zero to ten. Ten, Eleven, somewhere in there, to about Nineteen, they're a pain in the ass. They know everything. Everytime I say something to my daughter, "I know." She knows everything. She is the smartest person...if you want to know anything, ask my daughter, 'cause...

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Did Congress Get Something Right?

2023-03-29

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(3/29/23) Markets are doing just fine, pricing-in current issues; by 2024 earnings estimates are expected to be a same level as 2022 when artificial liquidity was introduced. The triple tax benefits of Health savings Accounts: What congress may actually get right. how to effectively use an HSA; the benefits of high-deductible healthcare plans. The inevitabilities of Social Security: Higher retirement ages, earnings tests; the challenge of taking SS...

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Minimum Wage vs Living Wage & Wants vs Needs | Lance Roberts #Shorts

2023-03-28

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(3/28/23) "We talk about minimum wage..these minimum wages jobs that about 3-million people have in the country, and then need a living wage; a wage that will allow them to maintain a living standard. First problem is, if you're working a minimum wage job your entire life, there's a problem that is not part of the employment situation. Second thing is, though, what is that living standard? Is the living standard now a $2,500-a-month apartment,...

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Who Will Pay for Bank Failures? (3/28/23)

2023-03-28

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(3/28/23) Who is going to really pay for the FDIC coverage of failed banks? You will, through higher bank fees. Regional Bank shares are beaten up: Is there potential upside? Markets tested resistance Monday and failed; there are two zones in which to rally. Banks beginning to tighten lending standards has same result as rate hikes. Elon Musk's Twitter charging for verified accounts: $8/mo. cost in terms of wealth building; how much money is...

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The Debt Trap for Generations | Lance Roberts #Shorts (3/27/23)

2023-03-27

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(3/27/23) "Teaching our kids to have delayed-gratification is what will separate them from everyone else in that Millennial generation. This whole idea of, 'I can buy now and pay later,' it sounds great, right? You can hav it today. But paying for it later is the hard part because of the interest payments. This is the debt trap that we've gotten an entire generation deeply into that is going to plague them for the rest of their lives. And this...

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