Fed Pivot? (3/30/23): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist,…

2023-03-27

(3/27/23) In the aftermath of the bank fail and bailout fiasco, the Fed’s QT is essentially being negated by bond buys; despite that, markets are setting a rising trend. Gold buyers read real interest rates; stock buyers read earnings estimates. While the Fed continues to focus on inflation, markets are pricing-in a 110-bp rate cut by Summer’s end. 15-years after Bear-Stearns, the component missing for full financial crisis is a lack of faith in the system. It’s all about stability, but risk remains of breaking something this year. The fallacy of the Fed’s Bank Stress Tests; a simple explanation of what went wrong at SVB; the next area of risk will be in commercial real estate. Multi-family real estate also at risk because of origins of construction loans; too much supply, not enough

2023-03-22

(3/22/23) "We have one of The Most Inverted Yield Curves on record, and people are going, ‘Yeah, I know it’s inverted, but we’re not going to have a recession this time.’ We have never been this inverted without a recession, period, end of story. Now, could this time be different? Possib. But, I think it’s interesting, Mike, that despite all these rate hikes, the 10-year Treasury, as an example, because that’s all that’s on CNBC dai, we look at that rate…it’s been stuck around 3.9 to 4%, maybe a little above 4.1 %. It’s not been rising even though the Fed is continuing to hike rates on the short end. This is because the Bond Market is starting to price-in a much slower economic environment in the months and years ahead."
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance

2023-03-21

(3/21/23) "So, it’s an interesting conundum…flows of money [and] where they’re heading to. And, look, there’s a simple formula that drives economics, that drives markets, it drives just about everything in life, and that is always supp and demand. Why do we have inflation? Well, too much demand for too little supp: We shut down the economy, we gave people a bunch of money; we said, guess what, you can’t work, you gotta stay home; and no one could produce anything so there was no supp. So whatever supp that was available became very valuable. Mike over here wants to buy my widget. Mike’s going to give me five dollars, and I’ve got fifteen other people willing to pay me more. Economics is basical an auction, at a point, and when you have too much demand for too little supp, the highest

2023-03-16

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(3/16/23) "There is not enough money in FDIC to cover bank bailouts. There’s not even enough money to cover all of Silicon Valley Bank. If we go bank to a 2008 situation, where you’ve got bank after bank after bank failing, there is not enough moeny to cover those. In the Pension Benefit Guanraty Corporation, there is not enough money in that to cover all the pensions. There’s just not enough money. So ultimatey, at the end of the day, this is all going to wind up on taxpayers, because if we get into a situation where a lot of bailouts have to be done, it is going to have to be funded through government debt."

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced

2023-01-11

(1/11/23) Fed Head Jerome Powell’s expected speech in Sweden Tuesday underwhelmed on content, creating impetus for markets to rally; think: Why would the Fed cut rates now if things are "fine"? The new Congress is considering de-funding all those additional IRS Agents; meanwhile, the IRS is helping cope with Inflation by raising the standard deduction: Do you know your effective tax rate? Who really pays taxes…and who doesn’t? Why the US has the highest rate of wealth redistribution. How much does it take to be "rich?" How the Secure Act 2.0 helps. Healthcare Expenses in Retirement vs. being rich: How to hedge for healthcare; the theory vs reality of Term Life Insurance; Inflation hits Guinness prices.
3:12 – Jerome Powell’s Nothing-burger
15:20 – The 118th Congress & How IRS is

2023-01-10

(1/10/23) As goes January, so goes the year on Wall St. Will Fed Chair Jerome Powell disappoint investors with this week’s presentation? A correction with no more stimulus should be no surprise, but it’s not the end of the world, either. As the stimulus bolus works its way through the alimentary canal of the economy, where do you want to be (and where is the contrarian place to be)? What the McCarthy Speakership was really all about: reverting to pre-Obamamian rules in Congress. No more omnibus bills, and no more stimmie checks, either. There’s a viable risk for lower earnings this year. The implications of a "soft landing," and the challenges of managing money in 2023. Why "value stocks" are over-valued; what happens if consumers contract? The battle between the Bulls & the Fed