Category Archive: 9a) Buy and Hold

Target and Walmart reporting less than expected earnings, and missing by a mile, as they cite higher price pressure and building inventories. This would suggest we have likely seen the peak of inflation, along with slower consumer activity--both are pre-recessionary indicators that are also disinflationary.

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(5/18/22) What misses by Amazon, Target, and WalMart are telling us about the state of the consumer, which is the backbone of the economy. Markets remain in a well-defined downtrend, but are working off an over-sold status. All the free money that came into the economy is gone--here comes the post-sugar rush crash. The part of Keynesian Economics that everyone misses; Why proprietary investment vehicles might not be a good idea: No transferability...

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(5/17/22) Stocks are looking to open sharply higher following yesterday's consolidation and advance. This makes three "green" days in a row, providing more lift to markets in the short term. Our initial target on SPY is still 416--at the 20-DMA, the first level of resistance, and also part of the current downtrend. The next level up will be 430 or 431. We will want to use any rally to dell into and reduce risk. If markets are able to...

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(5/17/22) Congress is investigating UFO's while the economy is running off the rails and inflation rages. Market performance and "cash on the sidelines;" the worst start to the year for markets since The Great Depression; the Year of Shortages and high prices now includes a baby formula shortage that was self-inflicted; negative sentiment is so prevalent, it has crept into consumer behavior; why Ben Bernanke didn't want to...

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(5/16/22) Markets put in a big bottom last week--at least for the short term. Even though markets finished down for the day on Thursday, they rallied back above the open, setting up a green candle, and establishing a test of the level at three standard-deviations from the 50-DMA. Friday's subsequent rally pushed the index up to within two standard-deviations from the 50-DMA, and got close to triggering a money flow buy signal in a market that was...

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(5/16/22) Markets' performance last week would tend to set-up for an opportunity to rally--but will it stick? Analysts' earnings estimates are still way too high; comparing nuclear explosions, road trip cuisine vs gas station food; what we don't want to see today. Markets are doing their best to frustrate investors; use the coming rally to correct mistakes. The saga of Chicken Salad Chick; Why Joe Biden's Deficit Reduction plan will fail; fun with...

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(5/12/22) Markets remain under pressure after April CPI numbers show hotter-than-expected inflation. But looking at longer-term charts can give a better understanding of where we've been...and where we're going. Are we over-bought, or over-sold, and where is the downside risk, and where is the potential support, moving forward? The S&P is currently 3-standard-deviations below the 50-week Moving Average, and money flow indicators are also...

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(5/12/22) (5/12/22) Inflation is running hotter than the Fed would like; the major indexes are masking the reality of underlying stocks' plight; dealing with margin debt is playing a role in market's performance; 4 out of 8 CPI sectors were elevated in April--oddly, Energy was not one of them. Month/Month and Year/Year comparisons actually showed a decline; former Fed'er Bill Dudley continues to call out the FOMC for its "handling" of the...

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