Category Archive: 9a) Buy and Hold

(5/5/22) Jerome Powell's announced 50-basis-points rate hike was as expected--but the Fed added a dovish tone by slowing the rate of tapering on its balance sheet. With Professional and Retail investor sentiment at some of the lowest levels we've seen, and positioning very, very light in equities, the bit of good news was all Wall Street needed to stage a 3% rally, pushing up to resistance at the 20- and 50-DMA's. If markets go there, that's the...

Read More »

(5/5/22) The Fed is raising rates by 50-basis-points, but tapering its balance sheet at a slower pace than expected, causing great jubilation on Wall Street, and a 3% rally after the announcement. The narrative the Fed feeds does not always comport with reality; how Jerome Powell "walks the line." Is the Fed looking at the economy in the right way? Economic data are telling a different story; is the market actually bottoming--or could it...

Read More »

(5/4/22) Market futures are elevated following two days of volatility and a slow grinding higher; lots of trepidation on Wall St. as the Fed's FOMC meeting convenes today. What the Fed says--or does not say--will affect markets, and in turn, your money. Will the Fed announce a 50-basis-point hike in rates, and a tapering of its balance sheet starting in June--or--will they be more aggressive, hiking rates 75-basis-points, with more, similar rate...

Read More »

(5/4/22) Today's FOMC meeting will reveal what Jerome Powell & Co really think about the economy, and how the Federal Reserve intends to address inflation: Corporate earnings are decent, but forward guidance is sucky. What we mean when we say we're "taking profits;" how to adjust your portfolio strategy for risk, and why cash is king. Don't confuse narratives for returns: Indexes paint a different view than what's really happening in...

Read More »

(5/3/22) The next Fed meeting is tomorrow, at which the FOMC is expected to hike rates 50-basis points, and reduce its balance sheet by $90-Billion starting in June. But what if they don't? What if the Fed says it's raising rates by 75-basis points, and issues a much more hawkish view on inflation? That's the risk markets are facing as they try to position ahead of the meeting. With markets so negatively biased, any news that matches expectations...

Read More »

(5/3/22) The FOMC meets tomorrow, and while many are anxiously awaiting the Fed's pronouncements on Thursday; in reality, markets may have already "baked-in" an expected 50-basis point rate hike and $90-B balance sheet taper to begin in June. Dragons are real; How Investors are positioning for the rest of the summer; YouTube influencers and the end of bad advice; S&P earnings estimates continue to climb, even as corporate forecasts...

Read More »

(5/2/22) Markets are set to prove the April-to-May adage: Thunderstorms on Wall Street in April resulted in extremely negative investor sentiment. Markets are very over-sold, and positioning is very light--not surprising given market performance last month. Can markets go lower? Certainly. And we could see a bit of a short-term rally at this point, too, albeit with a lower high as the market continues to establish a down trend. We could also see a...

Read More »

(5/2/22) Will April's showers bring a flowering to the markets in May? Comparing 2021 to now--is a bigger bear market coming? (Anything the Fed says next can tilt markets one way or the other.) The potential for a short-term rally is likely; use it to rebalance risk in portfolios. Wall Street's golden plateau is "buy & sell;" the velocity of news can destroy market caps overnight; Warren Buffett: "Markets are a Casino."...

Read More »