Category Archive: 9a) Buy and Hold

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Will Private Credit Cause The Next Financial Crisis?

2026-04-15

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2026-04-15

Believe it or not, it's been 18 years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Despite many detailed investigative reports on the events and even the popularity of The Big Short, a box-office hit and bestselling book, the role of subprime mortgages in the near-fatal collapse of the banking system remains a mystery to many investors. …

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Is The Iran War Good For The Petrodollar?

2026-04-15

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2026-04-15

Diana Choyleva wrote an excellent editorial for the Wall Street Journal entitled "The Iran War Is A Boon For The Petrodollar." She pushes back against claims that the Iran conflict is accelerating the death of the petrodollar. Instead, she argues the opposite: between Iran and Venezuela, the U.S. is defending and bolstering dollar dominance in …

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Stable Coins Versus Banks: The Battle Over Interest Rates

2026-04-14

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2026-04-14

A battle is raging in the Halls of Congress between the banks and the crypto industry. The spark was a judgment by the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, which recommended that stablecoins be allowed to pay interest to their holders. As a result of the Genius Act, passed almost a year ago, stablecoins are … Continue...

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The Market Knows What You Don’t

2026-04-13

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2026-04-13

A client and friend asked us a timely question: "Why did we remove our hedge position so quickly after the ceasefire, especially with little evidence it will hold?" The simple answer is the market knows more than all of us. Market prices are based on all available information. Some of the information is widely known, … Continue reading »

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S&P 500 Outlook: The 8.2% Rally & What Comes Next.

2026-04-13

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2026-04-13

Over the last few weeks, we have published real-time market commentary as the correction proceeded. The goal was to help investors navigate the more dire outcomes promoted on social media. A largely unexpected outcome was that the S&P 500 outlook changed dramatically in a matter of days. After five consecutive weeks of decline driven by …

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Q1 Earnings Season: Buy Or Fade The Rally?

2026-04-11

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2026-04-11

🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief - Stocks Surge On Relief Note: I am traveling home from the UK today, so this week's missive will be short. Also, I had to write it on Friday before the U.S. markets officially closed. So, any discrepancies will be corrected next week when the full newsletter returns … Continue reading »

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Delta Has An Ace In The Hole

2026-04-10

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2026-04-10

On Wednesday, Delta Airlines announced it beat earnings expectations and, more importantly, its CEO maintained previous forward guidance despite the sharp increase in jet fuel prices. Delta CEO Ed Bastian cited a $2 billion quarterly fuel headwind caused by the conflict. While that added expense should weigh on earnings, Delta has a unique hedge that …

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Oil Shock: Will The Fed Intervene (Part 2)

2026-04-10

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2026-04-10

Last week, we discussed the risk of an oil shock leading to a recession. To wit: "After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got …

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Ceasefire Rally: Can The Market Hold New Support

2026-04-09

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2026-04-09

Upon hearing of the ceasefire, oil prices plummeted by nearly 20%, and the stock market surged. In doing so, the S&P 500 broke well above resistance. Accordingly, the old resistance of the 200-day moving average (DMA) now becomes support. While no one knows whether the ceasefire will hold, the market is entering a seasonally favorable …

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The Apple AI Strategy: Discipline Over Hype

2026-04-08

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2026-04-08

While tech giants invest billions in AI, Apple executives are quietly sitting on their hands and a mountain of cash. Given the massive growth in AI investments, as shown in the graphs below, executives of leading companies at the forefront of AI development must be ecstatic about the prospect of AI significantly boosting their bottom …

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The Berkshire War Chest: A Crisis Hedge?

2026-04-08

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2026-04-08

Berkshire Hathaway now sits on $373 billion in Cash. They have enough to buy 480 companies in the S&P 500. For context, this is the largest cash stockpile since 2008. At that time, Berkshire used its cash not to buy stocks on the open market but largely to offer companies private deals that ordinary investors … Continue...

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An IPO Surge Hides Behind The Fog Of War

2026-04-07

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2026-04-07

While Investors remain fixated on the Iranian conflict and the extreme volatility of oil prices, a historic wave of AI-driven IPOs is quietly building in the background. When the geopolitical fog clears, AI-related IPOs may become an important market narrative for the remainder of the year. As an appetizer, Anthropic, the Claude maker founded by …

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Is A Squeeze In Bonds Coming?

2026-04-06

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2026-04-06

As sentiment shifts from a Fed rate-cutting forecast to one that now sees a chance of a rate increase, a potentially powerful short squeeze setup might be emerging in the Treasury market. Heading into the Iran conflict, speculative short positions in TLT and Treasury futures were near historically elevated levels, reflecting a broad consensus that …

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The Stock Market Rally: Buy Or Fade It?

2026-04-06

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2026-04-06

Last week, the stock market rally was one of the best performances in nearly a year. The S&P 500 surged 3.4%, the Nasdaq climbed 4.4%, and the bulls declared the correction over. As I have stated before, having watched markets for more than 35 years, I have come to recognize the difference between a relief … Continue reading »

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Consecutive Weekly Declines & Fading Rallies

2026-04-04

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2026-04-04

🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief - Market Rebounds On Resolution Hopes March closed as the worst quarter for the S&P 500 since 2022, with the index down roughly 7% on the quarter and every member of the Magnificent Seven finishing in the red. This past holiday-shortened trading week saw a sharp reflexive relief …

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Oil Shocks & Recessionary Outcomes

2026-04-03

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2026-04-03

After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got everyone killed, financially speaking, in 1979. The 2003 Iraq War produced only a mild oil bump …

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Volume Profiles: Eyeing Resistance From Trapped Longs?

2026-04-02

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2026-04-02

Volume profiling provides unique insight into the profit-and-loss position of recent investors by identifying price levels at which significant buying and selling have occurred. Areas of high volume can act as powerful support and resistance levels because they represent prices at which a large number of investors have established positions and are therefore likely to …

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The Kohn Solution For An Uncertain Fed

2026-04-01

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2026-04-01

Dario Perkins of TS Lombard wrote a piece titled "How to Respond to Oil Shocks." His analysis draws on the Fed's history to address how it should respond to today's oil shock. While researching Fed transcripts from the 1990 Gulf War, he discovered a proposal by Don Kohn, senior Fed staffer, that offers a solution … Continue reading...

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Beta: A Powerful But Faulty Tool For Managing Risk

2026-04-01

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2026-04-01

When investors want to reduce risk, one commonly used tool is beta. For instance, an investor may sell higher-beta stocks and replace them with lower-beta ones to cushion against an expected market decline. Such a strategy is intuitive and widely used; however, it can be greatly flawed. We recently received a question from a client …

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Why Gold Is Failing As A Safe Haven

2026-03-31

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2026-03-31

There seems to be widespread disbelief among gold investors, as gold prices have fallen by over 10% since the US and Israel started bombing Iran on February 28th. Many investors think that gold is a safe haven that should do its best during crisis periods, as we are in. This assumption fails to consider the … Continue reading »

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