Category Archive: 9a) Buy and Hold

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Initial And Continuing Jobless Claims On The Rise

2025-06-13

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2025-06-13

Initial and continuing jobless claims are as close to a real-time proxy on employment as we have. Thus, while they do not hold the same importance to the markets as the monthly BLS data, they are worth tracking. Moreover, when trends are changing, as they may be now, their importance increases. The two graphs below … Continue reading...

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The Deficit Narrative May Find Its Cure In Artificial Intelligence

2025-06-13

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2025-06-13

Lately, the "deficit narrative" has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual "purveyors of doom." In this post, we will discuss the "deficit narrative," the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may be found in Artificial Intelligence. The "deficit narrative" has dominated the media lately as President …

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The Bull Rally Continues

2025-06-13

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2025-06-13

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report Risk/Reward Favors Patience I am traveling this weekend, so we are producing our weekly report a day early. As such, some charts using end-of-week data are using either Thursday or mid-Friday prices. All report will return to normal next week. Let's start with where we left off last week." … Continue...

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Inflation Remains Tame Despite Tariffs

2025-06-12

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2025-06-12

The May CPI report released yesterday was considered the first inflation gauge to show how tariffs are impacting prices. We would like to see a few more months of inflation reports before claiming the coast is clear, but the May CPI is encouraging. For the fourth consecutive month, the CPI was below Wall Street estimates. … Continue...

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Business Owners: Why Your Personal Financial Plan Needs More Than Just a CPA

2025-06-12

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2025-06-12

Running a successful business takes grit, vision, and no shortage of time. Between managing operations, leading teams, and scaling growth, personal financial planning often gets pushed to the back burner. When business owners do seek help, they typically turn to their CPA for advice. And while CPAs are invaluable for accounting and tax compliance, they’re …

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The Google AI Buildout In Plain English

2025-06-11

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2025-06-11

On May 20th, Google CEO Sundar Pichai updated the public on the company's progress on its AI development as follows: We are now processing 480 trillion monthly tokens, a nearly 50X increase in just one. Over 7 million developers are now building with the Gemini API, a 5x growth since last I.O., and our enterprise … Continue reading...

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Deficits And The Tradeoffs Required To Fix Them

2025-06-11

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2025-06-11

By falling significantly short of its intended savings goals, the DOGE program underscores the substantial challenges that hinder efforts to reduce federal spending and cut the deficit. Furthermore, its failure suggests that a more expedient way to reduce the deficit might be to increase federal revenue. Thus, we pose the simple hypothetical question: What if …

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The Economy Is The Real Deficit Problem

2025-06-10

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2025-06-10

The deficit fearmongers are out in full force, warning that massive debt payments will further exacerbate the deficit and ultimately bankrupt the country. While we agree that steadily increasing deficits are a significant problem, we believe it's not for the reasons most people give. To that end, a recent Tweet by George Gammon succinctly makes …

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Top 5 Mistakes High Net Worth Individuals Make Without a Financial Plan

2025-06-10

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2025-06-10

When you’ve worked hard to build wealth, protecting it becomes just as important as growing it. However, even high net worth individuals (HNWIs) often fall into avoidable traps, especially when navigating wealth without a formal financial plan. Without a clear strategy, even sophisticated investors may overlook important details, leading to costly consequences over time. In …

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Bond Yield Chasing: Tomorrow’s Narrative?

2025-06-09

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2025-06-09

Numerous bond narratives are driving long-term bond yields higher. “Crippling deficits” and a tariff-induced inflation sit at the top the list. We have repeatedly poked holes in these narratives. Instead of dwelling further on them, let's consider what tomorrow's narratives might be. When the bond market changes direction and yields fall, the two narratives we …

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“Buying The Dip” – Here’s A Technical Way To Do It

2025-06-09

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2025-06-09

Recently, I did an interview about "buying the dip" in the market, which generated many comments. Most were, "You're stupid; the market is going to crash," but one comment deserved a more thorough discussion. "When buying the dip, how do you know when to do it, or not?" That is the right question. Of course, you will never know … Continue...

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Stock Market Performance As Summer Arrives

2025-06-07

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2025-06-07

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report Breakout! Next Stop, Previous Highs Last week, we discussed the successful test of the 200-DMA. "Most notably, this past week was the successful test of the 200-DMA. The pullback to that previous broken resistance level and subsequent bounce highly suggests that the April correction is complete and that market …

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The Deficit Crisis Is Really A Recession Problem

2025-06-06

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2025-06-06

The graph below provides a clearer understanding of the US fiscal deficit. First, focus on the red line below, graphing the ratio of federal debt to GDP. Note that it is at the same level today as it was in 2021. Similarly, before the pandemic, it had been relatively flat for seven years. This highlights … Continue reading...

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Does Consumer Spending Drive Earnings Growth?

2025-06-06

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2025-06-06

It would seem evident that most investors would understand that consumer spending drives economic growth, ultimately creating corporate earnings growth. Yet, despite this somewhat tautological statement, Wall Street appears to ignore this simple reality when forecasting forward earnings. As discussed recently, S&P Global's current estimates show earnings are growing far above the long-term exponential growth …

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An ETF Like No Others: The Pudgy Penguin Project

2025-06-05

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2025-06-05

The cryptocurrency sphere and that of traditional finance continue to merge in ways that were previously unthinkable. To wit, Canary Capital filed documentation with the SEC to start the first ETF backed by non-fungible digital tokens. Non-fungible tokens are digital assets representing ownership of a specific piece of content. Most often, they are backed by …

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Comprehensive Financial Planning: What It Means for High Net Worth Families

2025-06-05

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2025-06-05

For affluent families, financial success isn't solely about accumulating wealth; it's about preserving it across generations, optimizing tax strategies, and aligning financial decisions with personal values and long-term goals. Comprehensive financial planning offers a holistic approach, integrating various financial aspects to provide clarity, control, and confidence in one's financial journey. Understanding Comprehensive Financial Planning...

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Sellers Outnumber Buyers In The Housing Market

2025-06-04

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2025-06-04

The following commentary is from Redfin "There are 34% more sellers in the market than buyers. At no other point in records dating back to 2013 have sellers outnumbered buyers this much. In other words, it’s a buyer’s market. Redfin expects home prices to drop 1% by the end of the year as a result. … Continue reading...

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Stablecoins To The Treasury’s Rescue

2025-06-04

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2025-06-04

Digital Money was the title of TBAC’s April 30, 2025, presentation to the U.S. Treasury Department, and an important topic worth discussing. TBAC, short for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, is comprised of senior investment professionals from the largest banks, brokers, hedge funds, and insurance companies. Most often, the committee informs the Treasury staff on …

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How Long $2 Million in Retirement Savings Lasts in Every U.S. State

2025-06-03

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2025-06-03

For many Americans, accumulating $2 million in retirement savings is a significant milestone. However, the longevity of these savings can vary greatly depending on the state in which you choose to retire. Factors such as cost of living, taxes, healthcare expenses, and lifestyle choices all play a role in determining how far your retirement funds …

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Sell In May And Go Away?

2025-06-03

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2025-06-03

An old Wall Street adage advises investors to sell in May and go away. Given that we have just turned the calendar to June, it's worth assessing whether selling stocks and holding cash for the next seven months makes sense. The graph and data below are based on two trading strategies, both starting in January … Continue reading »

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