Category Archive: 9a) Buy and Hold

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#MacroView: Are Stocks Cheap, Or Just Another Rationalization?

2021-05-07

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2021-05-07

Are stocks “cheap,” or is this just another bullish “rationalization.” Such was the suggestion by the consistently bullish Brian Wesbury of First Trust in a research note entitled “Yes, Stocks Are Cheap.” To wit: “The Fed remains highly accommodative, there are trillions of dollars of cash on the sidelines, vaccines have reached over 50% of Americans, and the economy is expanding rapidly. Some valuations have been stretched, but the market as a...

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All Inflation Is Transitory. The Fed Will Be Late Again.

2021-05-02

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2021-05-02

In this issue of “All Inflation Is Transitory, The Fed WIll Be Late Again.“ Market Review And Update All Inflation Is Temporary The Fed Should Be Hiking Now Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: No. Bonds Aren’t Overvalued. Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week   Market Review & Update Last week, we...

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Seth Levine: Bitcoin Doesn’t Fix Defi, Defi Fixes Bitcoin

2021-05-02

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2021-05-02

Does Bitcoin Fix Defi (Definancialization)? “Bitcoin fixes this.” I cringe every time I see this popular meme. I find it worse than nails on a chalkboard. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (crypto) supporters seem to wheel this tired trope out for every problem they see, particularly at economic ones. To their credit, they genuinely want to fix the financial system’s problems.

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The Battle Royale: Stocks vs. Bonds (Which Is Right?)

2021-04-28

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2021-04-28

Peak S&P Earnings vs Actual Earnings, 1980-2020
The Battle Royale: Stocks vs. Bonds. The S&P 500 is at valuations higher than those in 1929 and rival those of 1999. Despite a recession, the index is 25% above where it was trading before the pandemic. The equity stampede is undoubtedly bullish about corporate earnings prospects and, by default, economic growth.  

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Lacy Hunt & Expectations For Decelerating Inflation

2021-04-12

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2021-04-12

Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management has some interesting thoughts regarding the inflation debate and the potential for decelerating inflation. Case For Decelerating Inflation In its Quarterly Review and Outlook for the First Quarter of 2021 Lacy Hunt makes a case for decelerating inflation.

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A Major Support For Asset Prices Has Reversed

2020-12-24

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2020-12-24

In 2019, we wrote about how corporate share repurchases, or “stock buybacks,” had accounted for nearly all buying in the market. A year later, that significant support for asset prices has reversed.

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Seth Levine: How I Process Ideas Into Investments

2020-11-20

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2020-11-20

Investing is incredibly hard. Mapping observations to security price movements are complex. Often, the relationships governing these moves are unknown. Yet, this is the investor’s task. I’ve used this blog as a tool for exploring some of these connections. It’s been incredibly rewarding.

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Retirement Income Planning Truth with Jim Otar. Part 1.

2020-10-11

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2020-10-11

Index Value Over Time
Income is the lifeblood of retirement.  In Part 1, wisdom from the early chapters of Jim Otar’s new book about retiree income challenges is explored. A one-person revolutionary.

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Consumer Mood Darkens On Employment Prospects

2020-09-27

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2020-09-27

Job Transitions, 2014-2020
A Fed survey of expectations shows that the consumer mood darkens on employment and job prospects. This chart shows the changes in employment status of respondents who were  employed four months ago. The Fed survey asks individuals currently employed (excluding self-employment) whether they are working in the same job as when they submitted their last survey. 

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Technically Speaking: Why This Isn’t 1920. Valuations & Returns

2020-08-26

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2020-08-26

SP500 Total Real Return, 1905 - 2019
Why this isn’t 1920 has everything to starting valuations and future returns. While, generally, I’m not too fond of comparisons between today’s markets and the past, Ed Yardeni made a comparison too bombastic to disregard in his blog.

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The 4.0 percent Rule Is Dead. What Should Retirees Do Now?

2020-08-24

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2020-08-24

Interest Rates, 1998 - 2020
The 4% Rule Is Dead. A recent article by Shawn Langlois via MarketWatch pointed out this sobering fact but is one we have discussed previously. Retirees have long counted on being able to retire on their assets and take out 4% each year. However, a little more than 20-years later, the “death of the withdrawal rate” has arrived. What should retirees do now?

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Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Back To Extremes: Q2-2020

2020-08-05

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2020-08-05

QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust
As discussed in Is It Insanely Stupid To Chase Stocks, the market has gotten quite ahead of the fundamentals as money continues to chase performance. In the Q2-2020 review of Commitment Of Traders report (COT,) we can see how positioning has moved back to extremes.

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Unprecedented Recession Synchronization

2020-07-26

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2020-07-26

Percent of Economies in Recession, 1871-2021
The global recession is an unprecedented recession synchronization. Deflationary Consequences: Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management explains the deflationary consequences of the current global situation in its Second Quarter 2020 Review.

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Reading The Market’s Postmodern Mind

2020-07-24

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2020-07-24

Defining Pre-modernism, Modernism, and Postmodernism
No matter how you slice it, markets are human. This even applies to the “algos” as it’s we who write their mechanistic marching orders. Thus, understanding human behavior can be helpful in assessing and anticipating market moves. There’s no choice in the fact that we all need a philosophy to live.

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Shedlock: Millennial Renters Abandon Their Home Buying Plans

2020-07-17

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2020-07-17

Second Thoughts on Buying a Home
Millennial renters who were in the market pre-Covid just abandoned their home buying plans. A lifestyle survey shows millennials top the list of those canceling home-buying plans.

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Passive Fingerprints Are All Over This Crazy Market

2020-07-16

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2020-07-16

Apple Fundamental Analysis
Passive Fingerprints Are All Over This Crazy Market. Apple’s stock is up over 20% since the market peak in February. Without a doubt, Apple, the company, is worse off due to the crisis and global recession. Revenue and earnings will be inferior to what Wall Street had forecast at lower stock prices. Valuations, shown below, are now astronomical.

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The Fed Is Trapped In QE As Interest Rates Can’t Rise Ever Again.

2020-07-14

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2020-07-14

Total Debt vs. GDP, 1953-2021
Since the onset of the pandemic, the Fed has entered into the most aggressive monetary campaign. Its goal was to bolster asset markets to restore confidence in the financial system. However, the trap is the Fed is in a position where they can never stop QE as interest rates can’t rise ever again.

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The Theory Of MMT Falls Flat When Faced With Reality (Part II)

2020-07-07

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2020-07-07

Debts, Deficits & Economic Growth, 1901-2015
If you missed Part-1 of our series on the “Theory Of MMT Falls Flat When Faced With Reality,” start there. In Part-2, we complete our analysis of the theory and the potential ramifications. The premise of our discussion was this recent explanation of “Modern Monetary Theory” by Stephanie Kelton.

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