Category Archive: 5.) The United States

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The Gathering Storm

2018-07-06

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2018-07-06

S-Curve Expansion, Stagnation and Decline
July 4th is an appropriate day to borrow Winston Churchill's the gathering storm to describe the existential crisis that will envelope America within the next decade. There is no single cause of the gathering storm; in complex systems, dynamics feed back into one another, and the sum of destabilizing disorder is greater than a simple sum of its parts.

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US Vs China – Is It ‘Art Of The Deal’ Or Economic Warfare?

2018-07-04

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2018-07-04

While monetary tightening remains the main risk for global stock markets, the threat of a trade war continues to dominate the headlines...

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Revisiting The Revised Revisions

2018-06-30

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2018-06-30

Revisions Durable Goods SA, 2006-2018
I missed durable goods last month for scheduling reasons, which was a shame given that May is the month each year for benchmark revisions to the series. Since new estimates under the latest revisions were released today, it seems an appropriate time to revisit the topic of data bias, and why that matters. What happens with durable goods (or any data for that matter, the process is largely the same) is that the Census Bureau conducts smaller surveys...

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Make Capital Cheap and Labor Costly, and Guess What Happens?

2018-06-28

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2018-06-28

Price Changes, 1996 - 2016
Employment expands in the Protected cartel-dominated sectors, and declines in every sector exposed to globalization, domestic competition and cheap capital. If you want to understand why the global economy is failing the many while enriching the few, start with the basics: capital, labor and resources. What happens when central banks drop interest rates to near-zero? Capital becomes dirt-cheap.

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Dear High School Graduates: the Status Quo “Solutions” Enrich the Few at Your Expense

2018-06-27

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2018-06-27

Student Loans Debt 2008-2018
You deserve a realistic account of the economy you're joining. Dear high school graduates: please glance at these charts before buying into the conventional life-course being promoted by the status quo. Here's the summary: the status quo is pressuring you to accept its "solutions": borrow mega-bucks to attend college, then buy a decaying bungalow or hastily constructed stucco box for $800,000 in a "desirable" city, pay sky-high income and property...

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review (VIDEO)

2018-06-24

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2018-06-24

Information and opinions about the economy and markets from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun.

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Gresham’s Law and Bitcoin

2018-06-23

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2018-06-23

Bolivar/U.S. Dollar, 2010-2018
Rather suddenly, the state issued fiat currency bolivar lost 99% of its purchasing power. Gresham's law holds that "bad money drives out good money," meaning that given a choice of currencies (broadly speaking, "money" that serves as a store of value and a means of exchange), people use depreciating "bad" to buy goods and services and hoard "good" money that is appreciating or holding its value.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2018-06-22

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2018-06-22

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate 1990-2018
Is the rate hiking cycle almost done? Not the question on everyone’s minds right now so a good time to ask it, I think. A couple of items caught my attention recently that made me at least think about the possibility.  There has been for some time now a large short position held by speculators in the futures market for Treasuries.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-06-21

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2018-06-21

Global Asset Allocation Update
The risk budget is unchanged this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds and risk assets is evenly split. There are changes this month within the asset classes. How far are we from the end of this cycle? When will the next recession arrive and more importantly when will stocks and other markets start to anticipate a slowdown?

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There Isn’t Supposed To Be The Two Directions of IP

2018-06-20

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2018-06-20

U.S. Industrial Production, SA 1995-2018
US Industrial Production dipped in May 2018. It was the first monthly drop since January. Year-over-year, IP was up just 3.5% from May 2017, down from 3.6% in each of prior three months. The reason for the soft spot was that American industry is being pulled in different directions by the two most important sectors: crude oil and autos.

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Here We Go Again: Our Double-Bubble Economy

2018-06-17

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2018-06-17

S&P/Case-Shiller 2000-2018
The bubbles in assets are supported by the invisible bubble in greed, euphoria and credulity. Well, folks, here we go again: we have a double-bubble economy in housing and stocks, and a third difficult-to-chart bubble in greed, euphoria and credulity.

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Recent Concerning Consumer Credit Trends Carry On Into April

2018-06-16

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2018-06-16

Consumer-Credit Revolving Monthly Change 2012-2018
US consumers continue to recover from their debt splurge at the end of last year. Combined with still weaker income growth, the Federal Reserve estimates that aggregate revolving credit balances grew only marginally for the fourth straight month in April 2018. To put it in perspective, the total for revolving credit (seasonally adjusted) is up a mere $2.2 billion for all four months of this year combined, compared to +$5.2 billion in December 2017...

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review – VIDEO

2018-06-14

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2018-06-14

Interview with Joe Calhoun about BiWeekly Economic Review 15/06/2018.

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A Slight Hint Of A 2011 Feel

2018-06-13

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2018-06-13

Deutsche Bank
Whenever a big bank is rumored to be in unexpected merger talks, that’s always a good sign, right? The name Deutsche Bank keeps popping up as it has for several years now, this is merely representative of what’s wrong inside of a global system that can’t ever get fixed. In this one case, we have a couple of perpetuated conventional myths colliding into what is still potentially grave misfortune.

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The Three Crises That Will Synchronize a Global Meltdown by 2025

2018-06-09

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2018-06-09

Systems Collapse
We're going to get a synchronized global dynamic, but it won't be "growth" and stability, it will be DeGrowth and instability. To understand the synchronized global meltdown that is on tap for the 2021-2025 period, we must first stipulate the relationship of "money" to energy:"money" is nothing more than a claim on future energy. If there's no energy available to fuel the global economy, "money" will have little value.

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US Trade Settles Down Again

2018-06-08

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2018-06-08

U.S. Trade Trade Balance, Import, Export, Jan 2014 - May 2018
US trade is further leveling off after several months of artificial intrusions. On the import side, in particular, first was a very large and obvious boost following last year’s big hurricanes along the Gulf Coast. Starting in September 2017, for four months the value of imported goods jumped by an enormous 8.3% (revised, seasonally-adjusted). Most of the bump related to consumer and capital goods.

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Does Anyone Else See a Giant Bear Flag in the S&P 500?

2018-06-07

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2018-06-07

S&P 500 Large Cap Index 2018
We all know the game is rigged, but strange things occasionally upset the "easy money bet." "Reality" is in the eye of the beholder, especially when it comes to technical analysis and economic tea leaves.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: As Good As It Gets?

2018-06-06

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2018-06-06

US Treasuries
In the last update I wondered if growth expectations – and growth – were breaking out to the upside. 10 year Treasury yields were well over the 3% threshold that seemed so ominous and TIPS yields were nearing 1%, a level not seen since early 2011. It looked like we might finally move to a new higher level of growth. Or maybe not.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review – VIDEO

2018-06-04

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2018-06-04

Interview with Joe Calhoun about BiWeekly Economic Review 01/06/2018.

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Burrito Index Update: Burrito Cost Triples, Official Inflation Up 43 percent from 2001

2018-06-02

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2018-06-02

US Healthcare 1960 - 2010
Welcome to debt-serfdom, the only possible output of the soaring cost of living. Long-time readers may recall the Burrito Index, my real-world measure of inflation. The Burrito Index: Consumer Prices Have Soared 160% Since 2001 (August 1, 2016). The Burrito Index tracks the cost of a regular burrito since 2001. Since we keep detailed records of expenses (a necessity if you’re a self-employed free-lance writer), I can track the cost of a regular...

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