Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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A Second JOLTS

2020-08-11

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2020-08-11

What happens when we are stunned and dazed? We filter out the noise to focus on the bare basics by getting back to our instincts, acting reflexively based upon our deeply held beliefs and especially training. When faced with a crisis and there’s no time to really think, shorthand will have to suffice.

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The Economy Is Mortally Wounded

2020-08-10

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2020-08-10

A fully financialized, totally debt and speculation-dependent economy is terminal once leverage and debt stop expanding exponentially. We all know the movie scene in which the character is wounded but dismisses it as no big deal, and then lurches into the closing sequence where we discover the wound was not inconsequential, it was mortal, and the character expires.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-08-10

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2020-08-10

The dollar got some traction against the majors towards the end of last week. This weighed on EM FX, with the high best currencies TRY, BRL, CLP, and ZAR leading the losers. We downplay risk of contagion from Turkey, but we acknowledge it will keep investors wary of the countries with poor fundamentals.

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If the “Market” Never Goes Down, The System Is Doomed

2020-08-09

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2020-08-09

Bear Market Cartoon
"Markets" that never go down aren't markets, they're signaling mechanisms of the Powers That Be. Markets are fundamentally clearing houses of information on price, demand, sentiment, expectations and so on--factual data on supply and demand, shipping costs, cost of credit, etc.--and reflections of trader and consumer emotions and psychology.

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Shoe V arning

2020-08-08

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2020-08-08

US Trade in Goods, Jan 2010 - Jul 2020
It’s no wonder we’re obsessed with shoes these days. Even the V-people, as I’ll call them, keep one wary eye glued looking behind them. Survivor’s euphoria means a lot of potentially bad things, only beginning with a false sense of survivor-hood.

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Election 2020: what a Biden victory could mean for America | The Economist

2020-08-07

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Joe Biden currently stands a good chance of winning the presidency. He is a lifelong centrist, but could turn out to be the most ambitious Democratic president in generations. Read more here: https://econ.st/31Ammy6 Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of the 2020 US election here: https://econ.st/3a2ptCN Sign up to “Checks and Balance”, our weekly newsletter on American politics: https://econ.st/3grrESz Listen to the “Checks and Balance”...

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The Bogus “Recovery,” Stress and Burnout

2020-08-07

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2020-08-07

US Stress, 2012 - 2017
We have three basic ways to counter the destructive consequences of stress.We have all experienced the disorientation and "brain freeze" that stress triggers. The pandemic and the responses to the pandemic have been continuous sources of stress, i.e. chronic stress, which is the pathway to burnout, the collapse of our ability to cope with the burdens pressing on us.

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Purchasing Managers Indigestion

2020-08-06

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2020-08-06

Europe ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment, Jan 2017 - Jul 2020
There’s already doubt given how the two major series supposedly measuring the same thing seemingly can’t agree. If the rebound was truly robust, it would show up unambiguously everywhere. But IHS Markit’s purchasing managers indices struggled to get back above 50 in July, barely getting there, suggesting the economy might be slowing or even stalling way too close to the bottom.

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5 Tax Strategies to Help you Hold on to Your Money in Retirement

2020-08-05

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2020-08-05

What is retirement, really? We think we know. So, we do our best to prepare for both current circumstances and as many surprises as we can conjure up.  After all, with people living longer than ever before your money has to last longer than ever before.

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Summer Special – Deep Dive into U.S. Dollar with Jeff Snider

2020-08-04

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MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeff Snider to the show to discuss the U.S. Dollar system, structurally how it works and why it’s leading systemically to a dollar shortage.

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Accusing the Accused of Excusing the Mountain of Evidence

2020-08-03

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2020-08-03

Germany Federal Securities, 2018-2020
Why not let the accused also sit in the jury box? The answer seems rather obvious. While maybe the truly honest man accused of a crime he did commit would vote for his own conviction, the world seems a bit short on supply of those while long and deep offering up practitioners of pure sophistry in their stead.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-08-03

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2020-08-03

EM currencies took advantage of broad dollar weakness against the majors last week, with most gaining against the greenback. Yet the week ended on a bit of a risk-off note as concerns intensified about the resurgent virus and the impact on the still-weak global economy.

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A Vaccine May Not Be the “Magical Cure” Everyone Anticipates

2020-08-03

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2020-08-03

Few appear willing to follow the probabilities of a future in which a vaccine cannot possibly be the "magic cure" everyone wants. Let's attempt the impossible and set aside all preconceptions we might have about a vaccine for Covid-19, and think it through somewhat dispassionately.

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Memo from Insiders: Dear Bagholders, Thanks for Buying Our Shares at the Top

2020-08-01

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2020-08-01

The self-sustaining recovery is a fantasy that's evaporated.What looks like a powerful, can't-lose rally to newbies is recognized as distribution by old hands. In low-volume markets (as in the past few months), insiders holding large positions can't dump all their shares at once or the price of the stock would plummet due to the thinness of the bid.

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Olympic champion Edwin Moses on covid-19, race and trans athletes | The Economist Podcasts

2020-07-31

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The coronavirus pandemic has derailed the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, but that’s not the only problem facing world sport. The Economist Asks podcast spoke to Edwin Moses, former hurdling gold medalist, about doping, race relations and the inclusion of transgender athletes in the Olympics. Further reading: Listen to the full podcast with Edwin Moses here: https://econ.st/2P8SrHp Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here:...

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That’s Probably Why Only Half a “V”

2020-07-31

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2020-07-31

IHS Markit US Composite, 2018-2020
Why only half a “V?” If the latest PMI’s are anywhere close to accurate, and they don’t have to be all that close, then the production side of the economy may have stalled out somewhere nearer the trough of this contraction. The promise of May’s big payroll report surprise has dissipated in more than just the bond market.

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Dollar Weak Ahead of Likely Dovish Hold from the Fed

2020-07-30

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2020-07-30

US and Germany Yields
The FOMC decision today is likely to deliver a very dovish tone; the dollar tends to weaken on FOMC decision days. Tensions about the latest US stimulus bill are rising; core bond yields have been remarkably stable over the last several months.

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? Charles Hugh Smith | Economic analysis with what is happening

2020-07-29

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Charles Hugh Smith | Economic analysis with what is happening These are the kind of sharp economic analysis that is missing from Charles on the Axis of Easy salons.

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The Nation Is Falling Into the Abyss Between Wall Street and Main Street

2020-07-29

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2020-07-29

Student Loans Owned and Securitized, 2008-2020
The abyss between the Fed's illusion of phantom wealth for Wall Street and the collapse of Main Street is bottomless, and our descent into the abyss is accelerating. I know this runs counter to every dominant narrative, but a vaccine doesn't really matter, opening up doesn't really matter, and the size of the "free money" stimulus checks doesn't matter.

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Dollar Stabilizes but Further Losses Likely

2020-07-29

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2020-07-29

Dollar YTD Performance, 2020
The dollar is stabilizing today but further losses are likely. Senate Republicans have proposed a sharp cut to weekly unemployment benefits; Senator Collins will oppose Judy Shelton’s nomination to the Fed. Regional Fed manufacturing surveys for July will continue to roll out; early July reads for the US economy support our view that Q3 is off to a rocky start.

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