Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Surviving 2020 #3: Plans A, B and C

2020-05-10

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2020-05-10

Readers ask for specific recommendations for successfully navigating the post-credit/speculative-bubble era and I try to do so while explaining the impossibility of the task. As the bogus prosperity economy built on exponential growth of debt implodes, we all seek ways to protect ourselves, our families and our worldly assets. 

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Everyone Knows The Gov’t Wants A ‘Controlled’ Weimar

2020-05-09

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2020-05-09

There are two parts behind the inflation mongering. The first, noted yesterday, is the Fed’s balance sheet, particularly its supposedly monetary remainder called bank reserves. The central bank is busy doing something, a whole bunch of something, therefore how can it possibly turn out to be anything other than inflationary?The answer: the Federal Reserve is not a central bank, not really.

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Covid-19: how it will change the world | The Economist

2020-05-08

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Even when covid-19 is under control, the long-term effects of the virus will be far-reaching. How will the coronavirus pandemic—and the way it has been handled—change the world? Read more here: https://econ.st/2yEhCg9 Further reading: Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.st/2QXX9sJ Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest covid-19 coverage: https://econ.trib.al/YD53WI6...

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Covid-19: how it will change the world | The Economist

2020-05-08

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Even when covid-19 is under control, the long-term effects of the virus will be far-reaching. How will the coronavirus pandemic—and the way it has been handled—change the world? Read more here: https://econ.st/2yEhCg9 Further reading: Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.st/2QXX9sJ Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to …

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Dollar Mixed as Doves Fly

2020-05-08

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2020-05-08

Measures of cross-market implied volatility have been stable for a few weeks now. Weekly jobless claims are expected at 3 mln; reports suggest House Democrats are pushing ahead with a possible vote next week on another relief package. Canada reports April Ivey PMI; Peru is expected to keep rates steady; Brazil COPOM delivered a dovish surprise last night.

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We All Know Who’s On First, But What’s On Second?

2020-05-08

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2020-05-08

It wasn’t entirely unexpected, though when it was announced it was still quite a lot to take in. On September 1, 2005, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the nation’s personal savings rate had turned negative during the month of July. The press release announcing the number, in trying to explain the result was reduced instead to a tautology, “The negative personal saving reflects personal outlays that exceed disposable personal...

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Negative News from Europe Helps Dollar Build on Gains

2020-05-07

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2020-05-07

UK has been confirmed to have the highest death toll in Europe the dollar is getting more traction. Reports suggest Congress is resisting President Trump’s call for a payroll tax cut; ADP private sector jobs data is expected to come in at -21 mln. Brazil is expected to cut rates 50 bp; Fitch cut its outlook on Brazil to negative; Chile is expected to keep rates steady.

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Where the Rubber Meets the Road

2020-05-07

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2020-05-07

Longtime correspondent Paul B. suggested I re-publish three essays that have renewed relevance. This is the second essay, from July 2008. Thank you, Paul, for the suggestion. I received this timely inquiry from astute reader Paul B.: I'm interested in # 1, while you seem to take into account 300 million people in your writings--would you comment on rubber-meets-the-road impacts and proactive actions we can take to help shield ourselves (and our...

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Wrenching And Immediate Jobs Problem, Just As Consumer Prices Must Rise

2020-05-06

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Charles Hugh Smith joins us to discuss the economic reality on Main Street, totally disconnected from Wall Street. From the abrupt loss of jobs, to a consumer that’s nowhere to be found and inflation ready to run rampant, here’s robust discussion about these unprecedented, dark times… Some of the questions that developed during today’s discussion: …

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Restricted Market Trading Comments

2020-05-06

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2020-05-06

Covid-19 related measures for restricted markets remain largely unchanged from last week. Sri Lanka and India have extended their lockdown periods, while Kenya and Nigeria continue to face limited liquidity.

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The Art of Survival, Taoism and the Warring States

2020-05-06

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2020-05-06

Longtime correspondent Paul B. suggested I re-publish three essays that have renewed relevance. This is the first essay, from June 2008. Thank you, Paul, for the suggestion. I'm not trying to be difficult, but I can't help cutting against the grain on topics like surviving the coming bad times when my experience runs counter to the standard received wisdom.

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Covid-19: what the world has learned during lockdown | The Economist

2020-05-05

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Lockdowns appear to have slowed the spread of covid-19. But what has the world learned about the virus during this time? Ed Carr, The Economist's deputy editor, and Callum Williams, our senior economics correspondent, answer your questions. Read more here: https://econ.st/2WtcLGF Further reading: Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.st/2QXX9sJ Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date...

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Covid-19: what the world has learned during lockdown | The Economist

2020-05-05

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Lockdowns appear to have slowed the spread of covid-19. But what has the world learned about the virus during this time? Ed Carr, The Economist’s deputy editor, and Callum Williams, our senior economics correspondent, answer your questions. Read more here: https://econ.st/2WtcLGF Further reading: Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.st/2QXX9sJ Sign up …

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MACRO ANALYTICS – 04-30-20 – MAIN STREET Shock!

2020-05-04

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31 Minutes with 24 Supporting Slides If you enjoyed this video you will find the following integrating newsletters of value. They expand on the video content with associated security charts: VIDEO NEWSLETTER-1 https://conta.cc/2AdDiQQ – 05-08-20 – Focus: MONOLINES & MUNI’S VIDEO NEWSLETTER-2 https://conta.cc/3cywcom – 05-10-20 – Focus: Commercial REITS Notification Sign-Up for Free Video Newsletter …...

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Why Assets Will Crash

2020-05-04

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2020-05-04

US Population
This is how it happens that boats that were once worth tens of thousands of dollars are set adrift by owners who can no longer afford to pay slip fees. The increasing concentration of the ownership of wealth/assets in the top 10% has an under-appreciated consequence: when only the top 10% can afford to buy assets, that unleashes an almost karmic payback for the narrowing of ownership, a.k.a. soaring wealth and income inequality: assets crash.

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Dollar Remains Under Pressure as Europe Unveils Some Plans to Reopen

2020-05-03

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2020-05-03

Global equity markets continue to trend higher; the dollar remains under pressure. The two-day FOMC meeting ends today; the first look at Q1 US GDP comes out. France and Spain laid out plans to reopen; the UK will rely on a contact tracing plan to limit the viral spread.

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Some Thoughts on Recent Foreign Exchange Intervention

2020-05-02

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2020-05-02

Dollar's YTD Performance, 2020
Dollar softness this week will take some pressure off of the foreign currencies but it’s too early to sound the all clear.  This piece focuses on how  central banks around the world may be intervening to influence their currencies.  Most of the world, particularly EM, is grappling with supporting weak currencies but a select few are dealing with stronger currencies. This is a very opaque process and so we are simply making our best guesses.

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Charles Hugh Smith on how COVID 19 will affect Jobs and the Economy

2020-05-01

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http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2020/05/01/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-how-covid-19-will-affect-jobs-and-the-economy/

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GDP + GFC = Fragile

2020-05-01

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2020-05-01

March 15 was when it all began to come down. Not the stock market; that had been in freefall already, beset by the rolling destruction of fire sale liquidations emanating out of the repo market (collateral side first). No matter what the Federal Reserve did or announced, there was no stopping the runaway devastation.

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COT Black: No Love For Super-Secret Models

2020-05-01

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2020-05-01

Federal Reserve: Liabilities & Capital, 1984-2019
As I’ve said, it is a threefold failure of statistical models. The first being those which showed the economy was in good to great shape at the start of this thing. Widely used and even more widely cited, thanks to Jay Powell and his 2019 rate cuts plus “repo” operations the calculations suggested the system was robust.

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