Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Dollar Soft as Markets Ignore Virus Numbers and Switch to Risk-On Mode

2020-09-29

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2020-09-29

GBP Risk Reversals and Positioning, 2019-2020
Virus numbers are rising across Europe and the US; the dollar is softening as risk-off sentiment ebbs. It is a fairly quiet day in the US; there is a glimmer of hope about a fiscal deal in the US; recent US data support the widely held view that more stimulus is needed.

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People Are Now Aware Of What Will Happen

2020-09-28

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Recently, people are more aware of what can happen. This awareness raises in economic conditions and political realities make people think. Every new choice is a new beginning for people.

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Jeff Snider’s Eurodollars and Lacy Hunt’s monetary policy in 10 Minutes

2020-09-28

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I've been watching videos from Jeff Snider, Lacy Hunt, Steve Van Meter and Brent Johnson for months and I've slowly built up a mental framework for what they are talking about.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-09-28

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2020-09-28

Persistent risk-off impulses weighed on EM last week and that may continue this week. The Asian currencies outperformed last week while MXN, ZAR, and COP underperformed, and we expect these divergences to continue. Despite optimism about a stimulus package in the US, we think it remains a long shot. Meanwhile, virus numbers are rising in Europe and the US, with data from both regions likely to continue weakening.

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Dollar Firm as Markets Digest Rising Virus Numbers

2020-09-26

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2020-09-26

Low Death in the "Second Wave", 2020
Markets are digesting the rising infection rates across Europe; the dollar is taking another stab at the upside. Speculation is picking up that a compromise on a stimulus package could be reached; reports suggest House Democrats are working on a new $2.4 trln package as a basis for these negotiations.

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28 Brent Johnson and Jeff Snider (also ‘George Gobel’)

2020-09-25

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Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, joins Jeff Snider to discuss central banks, public relations, modern monetary theory, politically-directed investment and whether the future ahead is a bright or dark one. Also, brown shoes.

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America’s pandemic election: what could go wrong? | The Economist

2020-09-25

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America’s 2020 presidential election will be a contest like no other. From the effects of mass mail-in voting to the threat of disinformation and delayed results—how ugly could it get? Sign up to our free webinar The US elections and the economy here: https://econ.st/3cApChN Further content: Sign up to “Checks and Balance”, our weekly newsletter on American politics: https://econ.st/3iT2b5z Find The Economist’s latest coverage of the 2020...

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The Silent Exodus Nobody Sees: Leaving Work Forever

2020-09-24

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2020-09-24

Wages share income,1960-2020
The "take this job and shove it" exodus is silently gathering momentum. The exodus out of cities is getting a lot of attention, but the exodus that will unravel our economic and social orders is getting zero attention: the exodus from work. Like the exodus from troubled urban cores, the exodus from work has long-term, complex causes that the pandemic has accelerated.

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Uh Oh, The Dollar Has Caught A Bid

2020-09-24

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2020-09-24

Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index, 2007-2020
Anyone who follows Alhambra knows that we keep an eye on the dollar. It is a very important part of our process of identifying the economic environment. A rising dollar, when combined with a falling rate of growth, can be a lethal combination. That was the situation in March and of course during the financial crisis of 2008.

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Jeff Snider: What happens if Dollar LOSES RESERVE STATUS? (RCS Ep75)

2020-09-23

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Topics: What would happen to the US economy long term if the Dollar is no longer the global reserve currency? US privilege/burden since Bretton Woods. Euro dollar system: what’s wrong with it? Hypothetically, how would it have been better/more sustainable?

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Dollar Remains Firm Ahead of Powell Testimony

2020-09-23

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2020-09-23

Sweden Data and Central Bank Rate, 2016-2020
The dollar remains firm on continued safe haven flows but we still view this situation as temporary. Fed Chair Powell appears before the House Financial Services Panel with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin; the text of Powell’s testimony was released already.

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Inflation and “Socialism-Lite” Are Just What the Billionaires Want

2020-09-23

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2020-09-23

The Fruit of Financialization
After a bout of inflation and "socialism-light", we could end up with even more extreme inequality when the whole rotten structure collapses.

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Charles Hugh Smith: What Would A Better System Look Like?

2020-09-23

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Writer, philosopher and long-time contributor to PeakProsperity.com, Charles Hugh Smith, returns to the podcast to explain the new socio-economic model he has just introduced to the world through his new book A Hacker’s Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet.

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Dollar Gains from Risk-Off Trading Unlikely to Persist

2020-09-22

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2020-09-22

Markets are starting the week in risk-off mode; the dollar is firm on some safe haven flows but this is likely to prove temporary. US politics is coming in to focus as the election nears; we fear that the likely horse-trading and arm-twisting will take away any residual desire to get another stimulus package done.

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“Inflation” and America’s Accelerating Class War

2020-09-21

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2020-09-21

Wealth inequality, 1910-2010
Those who don't see the fragmentation, the scarcities and the battlelines being drawn will be surprised by the acceleration of the unraveling. I recently came across the idea that inflation is a two-factor optimization problem.

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If Dollar Is Fixed By Jay’s Flood, Why So Many TIC-ked At Corporates in July?

2020-09-21

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2020-09-21

When the eurodollar system worked, or at least appeared to, not only did the overflow of real effective (if virtual and confusing) currency “weaken” the US dollar’s exchange value, its enormous excess showed up as more and more foreign holdings of US$ assets.

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27.3 US Retail Sales and Industrial Production in AUG

2020-09-20

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What do the latest figures tell us about the world's most important consumer? Jeff Snider reviews retail sales, industrial production and asks what is it that is missing from our post 2007-08 economy that precludes robust recovery.

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Reopening Inertia, Asian Dollar Style (Still Waiting On The Crash)

2020-09-20

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2020-09-20

Why are there still outstanding dollar swap balances? It is the middle of September, for cryin’ out loud, and the Federal Reserve reports $52.3 billion remains on its books as of yesterday.

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Risk Appetite Ebbs Ahead of BOE Decision

2020-09-19

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2020-09-19

US Curve, Breakevens, Real Yields, 2020
The dollar has gotten some limited traction despite the dovish FOMC decision; the FOMC delivered no surprises. We are seeing some more movement on fiscal stimulus; August retail sales disappointed yesterday.

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Putin, the poisoning and Belarus: what’s really going on? | The Economist

2020-09-18

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Vladimir Putin has been rattled by protests in Belarus and Russia’s far east—and stands accused of poisoning Alexei Navalny, his only real political rival at home. What does Putin really fear? Further content: Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest coverage: https://econ.st/3c7QSUD Watch our film about covid-19 in Russia: https://youtu.be/7tziw5i3vy8 Read about the uprising—and violent government...

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