Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Dollar Softens and US Curve Steepens as Odds of Democratic Sweep Rise

2020-10-07

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2020-10-07

2020 Presidential Elections Odds
The dollar remains under pressure; the US curve continues to steepen; a compromise on fiscal stimulus before the election still seems unlikely; this is another quiet day in terms of US data. President Lagarde said the ECB is prepared to inject fresh monetary stimulus to support the recovery; we expect the ECB to increase its PEPP in Q4.

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Who’s Negative? The Marginal American Worker

2020-10-06

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2020-10-06

CPS Household Survey: Civilian Labor Force Level, 2007-2020
The BLS’s payroll report draws most of the mainstream attention, with the exception of the unemployment rate (especially these days). The government designates the former as the Current Employment Statistics (CES) series, and it intends to measure factors like payrolls (obviously), wages, and earnings from the perspective of the employers, or establishments.

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The secret to tackling corruption | The Economist

2020-10-05

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Corruption costs the world nearly $3trn a year. Here are some of the innovative ways in which communities, companies and countries are tackling it. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk Like The Economist on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheEconomist/ Follow The...

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MACRO ANALYTICS – 10-01-20 – What Could Go Wrong?

2020-10-05

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43 Minutes with 36 Supporting Slides

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Things Change

2020-10-05

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2020-10-05

Things change, supposedly immutable systems crumble and delusions die. That's the lay of the land in the  The Empire of Uncertainty I described yesterday.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-10-05

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2020-10-05

The US political outlook has been upended by recent developments; lack of a significant safe haven bid for the dollar so far is telling. This is a very quiet week in terms of US data; FOMC minutes will be released Wednesday; there is a full slate of Fed speakers.

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Dollar Remains Soft but Sterling Pounded by Brexit Risks

2020-10-04

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2020-10-04

2020 Senate Control
The dollar remains under pressure as market sentiment continue to improve; stimulus talks were extended. Two major US airlines announced significant job furloughs starting today; US data for September will continue  to roll out; weekly jobless claims will be reported.

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That System Is Completely And Incredibly Unfair

2020-10-04

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The system is quite unfair and this is the problem in itself.

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Things Change: Charles Hugh Smith

2020-10-03

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Https://rebrand.ly/rawealthpartners1 Join Now Things Change: Charles Hugh Smith , Keyword "Doing more of what's hollowed out our economy and society" is a slippery path to ruin. Things change, supposedly immutable systems crumble and delusions die. That's the lay of the land in the The Empire of Uncertainty I described yesterday. It's difficult not to be reminded of the Antonine Plague of 165 AD that crippled the Western Roman Empire....

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Monthly Macro Monitor – September (VIDEO)

2020-10-03

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2020-10-03

Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun and Alhambra's Bob Williams look at data from the past month and discuss what it means for the economy.

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The Urban Exodus and How Greatness Goes Bankrupt

2020-10-03

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2020-10-03

The best-case scenario is those who love their "great city" will accept the daunting reality that even greatness can go bankrupt. Two recent essays pin each end of the "urban exodus" spectrum.

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Why Aren’t Bond Yields Flyin’ Upward? Bidin’ Bond Time Trumps Jay

2020-10-02

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2020-10-02

It’s always something. There’s forever some mystery factor standing in the way. On the topic of inflation, for years it was one “transitory” issue after another. The media, on behalf of the central bankers it holds up as a technocratic ideal, would report these at face value. The more obvious explanation, the argument with all the evidence, just couldn’t be true otherwise it’d collapse the technocracy right down to the ground.And so it was also in...

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The Empire of Uncertainty

2020-10-02

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2020-10-02

Anyone claiming they can project the trajectory of the U.S. and global economy is deluding themselves. Normalcy depends entirely on everyday life being predictable. To be predictable, life must be stable, which means that there is a high level of certainty in every aspect of life.

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Lyn Alden/Jeff Snider (QE, Deflation, Inflation, Dollar, Eurodollar System, Future US Economy)

2020-10-01

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The Rebel Capitalist show helps YOU learn more about Macro, Investing, Entrepreneurship AND Personal Freedom. ✅ Want to take your investing to the next level? Check out my new online investing forum!! I've partnered with Lyn Alden and Chris MacIntosh to bring you the best investment tool on the internet...Rebel Capitalist Pro. Check out our special offer at https://www.GeorgeGammon.com/pro For more content that'll help you build wealth...

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Helicopter Money and the End of Taxes

2020-10-01

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2020-10-01

Rather than right the ship, the "easy fix" is to distribute "free money"--not just to billionaires and corporations but to everyone.

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What’s Zambia Got To With It (everything)

2020-10-01

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2020-10-01

Argentina Bank
As one of Africa’s largest copper producers, it seemed like a no-brainer. Financial firms across the Western world, pension funds from the US or banks in Europe, they lined up for a bit of additional yield. This was 2012, still global recovery on the horizon – at least that’s what “they” all kept saying.

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Will covid kill globalisation?

2020-09-30

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Covid-19 has been the third major disruption to globalisation within the past twelve years. The pandemic will not kill globalisation off, but it will deepen the cracks.

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Dollar Softens as Risk-Off Sentiment Ebbs

2020-09-30

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2020-09-30

EM FX YTD Performance, 2020
The dollar continues to soften as risk-off sentiment ebbs; the first presidential debate will take place tonight. House Democrats have staked out their latest position at $2.2 trln; there is a fair amount of US data out today; Brazil has come under renewed pressure from fiscal concerns.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – September 2020

2020-09-30

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2020-09-30

US Industrial Production Index
The economic data over the last month continued to improve but the breadth of improvement has narrowed. Additionally, while most of the economic data series are still improving, the rate of change, as Jeff pointed out recently, has slowed. I guess that isn’t that surprising as the initial phase of the recovery comes to an end.

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Charles Hugh Smith: Radical Changes in Jobs Market Now & in Future

2020-09-29

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Economy," "Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy" and most recently, "A Radically Beneficial World: Automation, Technology and Creating Jobs for All." His work is published on a number of popular financial websites including Zero Hedge, Financial Sense, and David Stockman's Contra Corner.

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