Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Covid-19: why travel will never be the same | The Economist

2020-07-10

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Covid-19 has devastated global travel and—as the industry recovers from the effects of the pandemic—tourism will be increasingly localised and complicated. This won’t just affect foreign holidays; it could disrupt the workings of the globalised world. Read more here: https://econ.st/3gJ0O8f Further reading: Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.st/2VVNiWW Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up...

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Second Wave Global Trade

2020-07-10

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2020-07-10

US Trade in Goods, SA 2010-2020
Unlike some sentiment indicators, the ISM Non-manufacturing, in particular, actual trade in goods continued to contract in May 2020. Both exports and imports fell further, though the rate of descent has improved. In fact, that’s all the other, more subdued PMI’s like Markit’s have been suggesting.

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The American Economy in Four Words: Neofeudal Extortion, Decline, Collapse

2020-07-09

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2020-07-09

Price Changes, 1996-2016
Our society has a legal structure of self-rule and ownership of capital, but in reality it is a Neofeudal Oligarchy. Now that the pandemic is over and the economy is roaring again--so the stock market says--we're heading straight back up into the good old days of 2019. Nothing to worry about, we've recovered the trajectory of higher and higher, better every day in every way.

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Dollar Bid as Market Sentiment Yet to Recover

2020-07-08

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2020-07-08

The US has started the formal process of withdrawing from the WHO; the dollar continues to benefit from risk-off sentiment but remains stuck in recent ranges. The White House is asking Congress to pass another $1 trln stimulus plan by early August; President Trump hosts Mexican President AMLO for a two-day visit.

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Monthly Market Monitor – July 2020

2020-07-07

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2020-07-07

Most Long-Term Trends Have Not Changed. A lot has changed over the last 4 months since the COVID virus started to impact the global economy. Asia was infected first with China at ground zero. Their economy succumbed first with a large part of the country shut down to a degree that can only be accomplished in an authoritarian regime.

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Gratuitously Impatient (For a) Rebound

2020-07-07

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2020-07-07

ISM Purchasing Managers Indexes, 2008-2020
Jay Powell’s 2018 case for his economic “boom”, the one which was presumably behind his hawkish aggression, rested largely upon the unemployment rate alone. A curiously thin roster for a period of purported economic acceleration, one of the few sets joining that particular headline statistic in its optimism resides in the lower tiers of all statistics.

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What Makes You Think the Stock Market Will Even Exist in 2024?

2020-07-06

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2020-07-06

The Fruit of Financialization, 1980-2014
Given the extremes of the stock market's frauds and even greater extremes of wealth/income inequality it has created, tell me again why the stock market will still exist in 2024? When I read a financial pundit predicting a bull market in stocks through 2024, blah-blah-blah, I wonder: what makes you think the stock market will even exist in 2024, at least in its current form?

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-07-06

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2020-07-06

Risk assets remain hostage to swings in market sentiment. Stronger than expected US jobs data last week was welcome news. However, the tug of war between improving economic data and worsening viral numbers is likely to continue this week, with many US states reporting record high infection rates.

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Reality Beckons: Even Bigger Payroll Gains, Much Less Fuss Over Them

2020-07-05

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2020-07-05

What a difference a month makes. The euphoria clearly fading even as the positive numbers grow bigger still. The era of gigantic pluses is only reaching its prime, which might seem a touch pessimistic given the context. In terms of employment and the labor market, reaction to the Current Employment Situation (CES) report seems to indicate widespread recognition of this situation. And that means how there are actually two labor markets at the moment.

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Dancing Through the Geopolitical Minefield

2020-07-04

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2020-07-04

The Global Wealth Pyramid
The elites dancing through the minefield all have plans, but how many are prepared for the punch in the mouth? Open any newspaper from the past 100 years and you will soon find a newsworthy geopolitical hotspot or conflict. 

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Covid-19: what will happen to the global economy? | The Economist

2020-07-03

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The covid-19 pandemic has caused economic chaos and uncertainty. Zanny Minton Beddoes, our editor-in-chief, and Edward Carr, our deputy editor, answer your questions about the global economy Further reading: Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.st/31E02VY Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest covid-19 coverage: https://econ.st/3ghRh7W Read our briefing on the damage...

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Dollar Soft Ahead of Jobs Report

2020-07-03

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2020-07-03

Presidential Elections Odds, 2020
Re-shutdowns continue to spread across the US; the dollar has come under pressure again. Jobs data is the highlight ahead of the long holiday weekend in the US; weekly jobless claims will be reported. FOMC minutes were revelatory; the Fed for now will rely on “outcome-based” forward guidance and asset purchases to achieve its goals; US House passed the latest China sanctions bill.

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An Interesting Juncture in History

2020-07-02

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2020-07-02

US Health care, 1960-2010
Just as the rewards of central-bank bubbles have not been evenly distributed, the pain created by the collapse of the bubbles won't be evenly distributed, either. We've reached an interesting juncture in history, and I don't mean the pandemic. I'm referring to the normalization of extremes in the economy, in social decay and in political dysfunction and polarization.

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Charles Hugh Smith – People Are Now Aware Of What Will Happen

2020-07-01

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Recently, people are more aware of what can happen. This awareness raises in economic conditions and political realities make people think. Every new choice is a new beginning for people. SUBSCRIBE For The Latest Issues About ; #useconomy2020 #economynews #useconomy #coronaviruseconomy #marketeconomy #worldeconomy #reopeneconomy #openeconomy #economynews #reopeningeconomy #globaleconomy #silverprice #stockmarket #recession #goldpricetoday...

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What The PMIs Aren’t Really Saying, In China As Elsewhere

2020-07-01

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2020-07-01

China PMI, 2010-2020
China’s PMI’s continue to impress despite the fact they continue to be wholly unimpressive. As with most economic numbers in today’s stock-focused obsessiveness, everything is judged solely by how much it “surprises.” Surprises who? Doesn’t matter; some faceless group of analysts and Economists whose short-term modeling has somehow become the very standard of performance.

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Dollar Begins the Week Under Pressure Again

2020-06-30

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2020-06-30

The best prime minister
The virus news stream remains negative; pressure on the dollar has resumed. The US economy is taking a step back just as Q3 is about to get under way; there are some minor US data reports today. UK Labour leader Starmer overtook Prime Minister Johnson in the latest opinion poll; Macron’s party did poorly in French local elections.

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Looking Ahead Through Japan

2020-06-30

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2020-06-30

Japan Industry & Commerce, SA 2013-2020
After the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Tokyo with tales seemingly spun from some sci-fi disaster movie, all eyes turned to Japan. Cruisers had boarded the vacation vessel in Yokohama on January 20 already knowing that there was something bad going on in China’s Wuhan. The big ship would head out anyway for a fourteen-day tour of Vietnam, Taiwan, and, yes, China.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-06-29

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2020-06-29

Risk assets came under pressure last week as the virus news stream worsened. It’s clear that large parts of the US will be forced to delay reopening until their virus numbers improve. Markets had gotten too bullish on the US recovery story and so this reality check soured sentiment. This is a very important week for US data, and we think risk sentiment will remain under pressure ahead of what we think will be a likely downside surprise in the US...

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Forget the V, W or L Recovery: Focus on N-P-B

2020-06-29

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2020-06-29

Depression Dominoes Fall
The only realistic Plan B is a fundamental, permanent re-ordering of the cost structure of the entire U.S. economy. The fantasy of a V-shaped recovery has evaporated, and expectations for a W or L-shaped recovery are increasingly untenable. So forget V, W and L; the letters that will shape the future are N, P, B: there is No Plan B.

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Wait A Minute, What’s This Inversion?

2020-06-28

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2020-06-28

Eurodollar Futures Curve, 2018-2024
Back in the middle of 2018, this kind of thing was at least straight forward and intuitive. If there was any confusion, it wasn’t related to the mechanics, rather most people just couldn’t handle the possibility this was real. Jay Powell said inflation, rate hikes, and accelerating growth. Absolutely hawkish across-the-board.And yet, all the way back in the middle of June 2018 the eurodollar curve started to say, hold on a minute.

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