Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Will the Stock Market Be Dragged to the Guillotine?

2020-10-20

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2020-10-20

The Fed's rigged-casino stock market will be dragged to the guillotine by one route or another. The belief that the Federal Reserve and its rigged-casino stock market are permanent and forever is touchingly naive. Never mind the existential crises just ahead; the financial "industry" (heh) projects unending returns of 7% per year, or is it 14% per year?

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Election 2020: what the data tell us

2020-10-20

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The presidential election has been transformed by data. From key swing states and early voting to voter suppression and possible election-night chaos, Elliott Morris, our data journalist and election guru, discusses his polling predictions and answers your questions about the 2020 race for the White House.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-10-20

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2020-10-20

Some are holding out hope but we think the stimulus package remains dead; Fed releases its Beige Book report Wednesday; there is a full slate of Fed speakers this week. Fed manufacturing surveys for October will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims will be reported Thursday; BOC releases results of its Q3 Business Outlook Survey Monday.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-10-19

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2020-10-19

Risk assets are coming off a tough week. The dollar was bid across the board except for the yen, which outperformed slightly. The only EM currencies to gain against the dollar were KRW and CLP. The major US equity indices somehow managed to eke out very modest gains but stock markets across Europe sank as the viral spread threatens to slam economic activity again.

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5 Estate Planning Myths That Can Derail Your Estate Plan

2020-10-18

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2020-10-18

You spend a lifetime earning, saving, acquiring. But the old adage is true—you can’t take it with you. So, what do you do with your assets when you’re gone? How do you want them distributed? That’s where a good estate plan comes in.

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Dollar Gains as Market Sentiment Goes South

2020-10-17

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2020-10-17

FX Implied Volatility, 2019-2020
Virus restrictions across Europe continue to sour sentiment; the dollar is benefiting from the risk-off backdrop. The stimulus package is deader than Elvis; Fed manufacturing surveys for October will start to roll out; weekly jobless claims will be reported; Chile is expected to keep rates steady at 0.5%.

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Why We’re Doomed: Our Delusional Faith in Incremental Change

2020-10-16

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2020-10-16

Incremental delusion
Better not to risk any radical evolution that might fail, and so failure is thus assured. When times are good, modest reforms are all that's needed to maintain the ship's course. By "good times," I mean eras of rising prosperity which generate bigger budgets, profits, tax revenues, paychecks, etc., eras characterized by high levels of stability and predictability.

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Dollar Bounce Remains Modest as Headwinds Build

2020-10-15

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2020-10-15

UK Hospital Admissions
The dollar is making a modest comeback; stimulus talks have hit a dead end; we get more US inflation readings for September. Brexit talks continue ahead of the EU summit Thursday and Friday; a new bill by the UK government could change the investment landscape in the country.

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Can deep-sea mining help the environment?

2020-10-14

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Mining companies and governments will soon be allowed to extract minerals from the deep-ocean floor. These rare metals are vital for a more environmentally sustainable future on land, but at what cost to the health of the ocean?

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Dollar Bleeding Stanched as Markets Search for Direction

2020-10-14

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2020-10-14

2020 Senate Control
Markets have a bit of a risk-off feel today; the dollar bleeding has been stanched for now; IMF releases its updated World Economic Outlook. A stimulus package before the election appears doomed; Fed’s Barkin and Daly speak; a big data week for the US kicks off with September CPI today.

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A Deflationary Mindset That Isnt In Our Minds: Jeff Snider

2020-10-13

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The timing could not have been worse, though in the grand scheme of things it is just perfect. It was barely two weeks ago when Jay Powell was announcing what he and others were claiming was a huge, massive deal. No longer a specific inflation target, but one that would be averaged high against low.

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Our Simulacrum Economy

2020-10-13

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2020-10-13

In the hyper-real casino, everyone has access to the terrors of losing, but only a few know the joys of the rigged games that guarantee a few big winners by design. Readers once routinely chastised me for over-using simulacrum to describe our economy and society.

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Inflation Conditions Absent, Someone Call Jay

2020-10-12

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Wednesday, October 7, 2020 5:45 AM EDT Not just payroll data, either. The JOLTS data also keeps backing up this idea of a slowdown forming in the trajectory of both the CES and CPS series. More and more it looks like the economy is running out of momentum well short of the finish line.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-10-12

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2020-10-12

Dollar losses are accelerating; the virtual IMF/World Bank meetings begin Monday. A big stimulus package before the election still seems unlikely; there are a fair amount of Fed speakers during this holiday-shortened week.

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Dollar Slide Continues as US Fiscal Stimulus Remains Questionable

2020-10-11

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2020-10-11

2020 Senate Control
The dollar remains heavy; stimulus talks may or may not be dead; the White House is still sending mixed signals. This is another quiet day in terms of US data; Canada reports September jobs data. We got some more eurozone IP readings for August; following Greece yesterday, it’s Italy’s turn today to register another record low for its 10-year bond yield.

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It Just Isn’t Enough

2020-10-10

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2020-10-10

Unemployment Insurance, Initial Jobless Claims, 1980-2020
The Department of Labor attached a technical note to its weekly report on unemployment claims. The state of California has announced that it is suspending the processing of initial claims filed by (former) workers in that state.

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Election 2020: can the Democrats win the Senate? | The Economist

2020-10-09

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In the US 2020 election the battle to control of the Senate is almost as important as the race for the White House, because control of Congress can make or break a presidency. The Economist has created a new statistical model to predict who will win.

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A Hard Rain Is Going to Fall

2020-10-09

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2020-10-09

The status quo is about to discover that it can't stop the hard rain or protect its fragile sandcastles. You'll recognize A Hard Rain Is Going to Fall as a cleaned-up rendition of Bob Dylan's classic "A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall".

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Dollar Remains Heavy as Markets Await Fresh Drivers

2020-10-09

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2020-10-09

The US Vice Presidential debate was a comparatively cordial affair, though the impact on the election is likely to be limited; polls continue to move in favor of Biden, including in swing states. The weak dollar narrative under a Democratic sweep continues to play out; the outlook for fiscal stimulus is as cloudy as ever; FOMC minutes contained no big surprises.

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Is There Enough?

2020-10-08

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2020-10-08

IHS Markit US Composite, 2012-2020
It’s just not fast enough. And with the labor market spitting out numbers across a broad economic cross-section that look increasingly tired suggesting an economy running out of momentum, there’s the added urgency of time.

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