Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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What is history’s deadliest pandemic? | The Economist

2020-12-17

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The covid-19 pandemic may have derailed the world in 2020, but a far deadlier disease has shaped human history for thousands of years. Malaria defeated armies, fuelled the slave trade and jump-started the modern environmental movement. How covid-19 hinders the fight against malaria: https://econ.st/3gAsfCj Why malaria prevention needs to be fine-tuned: https://econ.st/3oEGhFE Mapping humanity’s progress in its fight against malaria:...

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Can 20 Years of Deflation Be Compressed into Two Years? We’re About to Find Out

2020-12-17

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2020-12-17

Extremes become more extreme right up until they reverse, a reversal no one believes possible here in the waning days of 2020.

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This Global Growth Stuff, China Still Wants A Word

2020-12-16

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2020-12-16

Before there could be “globally synchronized growth”, it had been plain old “global growth.” The former from 2017 appended the term “synchronized” to its latter 2014 forerunner in order to jazz it up. And it needed the additional rhetorical flourish due to the simple fact that in 2015 for all the stated promise of “global growth” it ended up meaning next to nothing in reality.Oddly the same for 2017’s update heading into 2018 and...

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FOMC Preview

2020-12-15

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2020-12-15

Coronavirus Daily Change, 2020
The two-day FOMC meeting starts tomorrow and wraps up Wednesday afternoon. While no policy changes are expected, we highlight what the Fed may or may not do. We expect a dovish hold, with Powell underscoring the growing downside risks facing the US economy in the coming months.

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One Little Problem with the “All-Electric” Auto Fleet: What Do We Do with all the “Waste” Gasoline?

2020-12-15

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2020-12-15

Primary energy consumption by source, 1965-2018
Regardless of what happens with vaccines and Covid-19, debt and energy--inextricably bound as debt funds consumption-- will destabilize the global economy in a self-reinforcing feedback.

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Making Sense Eurodollar University Episode 37 Part 2

2020-12-14

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Europe's latest PMI scores tell us the continent is falling into re-recession, perhaps not unlike Japan. Where did the momentum disappear to? The USA has better PMIs but should that give us comfort?

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-12-14

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2020-12-14

The Senate passed a stopgap bill late Friday that will keep the government funded until midnight this Friday; optimism on a stimulus deal appears to be picking up; the two-day FOMC meeting ending with a decision Wednesday will be important.

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Inflation Hysteria #2 (Slack-edotes)

2020-12-13

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2020-12-13

Macroeconomic slack is such an easy, intuitive concept that only Economists and central bankers (same thing) could possibly mess it up. But mess it up they have. Spending years talking about a labor shortage, and getting the financial media to report this as fact, those at the Federal Reserve, in particular, pointed to this as proof QE and ZIRP had fulfilled the monetary policy mandates – both of them.

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Lyn Alden & Jeff Snider: US economy, Eurodollar System, Dollar, Digital Currency, Gold (RCS EP 94)

2020-12-12

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Interview original date: September 11th, 2020

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Inflation Hysteria #2 (WTI)

2020-12-12

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2020-12-12

Sticking with our recent theme, a big part of what Inflation Hysteria #1 (2017-18) also had going for it was loosened restrictions for US oil producers. Seriously.

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Ep 127- Jeffrey Snider “How Do Swap Lines Work?”

2020-12-11

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Jeff Snider is the Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments, and here he explains how ridiculous the swap line system is. Swap lines don't work like how most people think they work.

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Dollar Rally Running Out of Steam Ahead of ECB Decision

2020-12-10

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2020-12-10

Stimulus talks drag on; US November CPI will be today’s data highlight; US Treasury wraps up a big week of auctions today with $24 bln of 30-year bonds on offer. The November budget statement will hold some interest; weekly jobless claims will be closely watched;

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How to restore trust in politics | The Economist

2020-12-09

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In America, Britain and other Western countries, voters have lost trust in politics. Is the answer to reboot an ancient idea? Read more here: https://econ.st/3ov9kvo Sign up to our weekly newsletter: https://econ.st/37NpM3E Can citizens assemblies save democracy?: https://econ.st/37zAtXf Can ordinary people solve the political deadlock?: https://econ.st/3qsTTps How can we bring polarised societies together? https://econ.st/3qp5k1v How...

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Inflation Hysteria #2 (Nominal UST)

2020-12-09

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2020-12-09

UST Yield Curve, 2017-2018
What had given Inflation Hysteria #1 its real punch had been the benchmark 10-year Treasury note. Throughout 2017, despite the unemployment rate in the US, globally synchronized growth being declared around the world (and being declared as some momentously significant development), and whatever other tiny factors acceding to the narrative, longer-term Treasury rates just weren’t buying it.

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Jittery Markets Keep the Dollar Afloat (For Now)

2020-12-09

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2020-12-09

Performance vs. Dollar, 2020
US fiscal negotiations are taking longer than expected; US Treasury auctions $56 bln of 3-year notes; we believe the Fed is watching the yield curve closely; Brazil reports November IPCA inflation; Chile kept rates on hold at 0.50% and tweaked its asset purchase program.

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People Are Now Aware Of What Will Happen

2020-12-09

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Recently, people are more aware of what can happen. This awareness raises in economic conditions and political realities make people think. Every new choice is a new beginning for people.

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Submit Questions for Jeffrey Snider on Liberty and Finance!

2020-12-08

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​Submit Questions for Jeffrey Snider, Chief Investment Strategist for Alhambra Investments on Liberty and Finance!

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Polar Opposite Sides of Consumer Credit End Up in the Same Place: Jobs

2020-12-08

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2020-12-08

CPS Household Survey, 2003-2020
If anything is going to be charged off, it might be student loans. All the rage nowadays, the government, approximately half of it, is busily working out how it “should” be done and by just how much. A matter of economic stimulus, loan cancellation proponents are correct that students have burdened themselves with unprofitable college “education” investments.

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Take Advantage of These COVID Estate Planning Opportunities by the End of 2020

2020-12-07

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2020-12-07

May you live in interesting times. Although that sounds like an ancient blessing, it’s believed to be a Chinese curse casting instability and uncertainty on the person who hears it. Blessing or curse, it’s a great description of the year we’ve just come through, and in spite of all the turmoil, there are some things you can do before the end of 2020 to take advantage of all the madness.

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A Hackers Teleology by Charles Hugh Smith

2020-12-06

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"What every human wants is fairness, a chance to belong that offers everyone opportunities to get ahead by our own merit and a say when decisions are made. Even before the global upheavals, our system was failing—it wasn’t fair at all. Now that it’s unraveling, it’s time for a new arrangement that’s actually sustainable on our resource-depleted planet that doesn’t favor wealthy insiders. Hear it Here – https://bit.ly/hackersteleology Those...

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