Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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What Collapsed the Middle Class?

2021-02-11

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2021-02-11

The middle class has already collapsed, but thanks to debt and bubbles, this reality has been temporarily cloaked. What collapsed the middle class? In many ways the answer echoes an Agatha Christie mystery: rather than there being one guilty party, a number of suspects participated in the collapse of the middle class.

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The Endangered Inflationary Species: Gazelles

2021-02-11

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2021-02-11

BLS National Business Employment Dynamics, 1993-2020
Nevada is, by all accounts and accountants, in rough shape. Very rough shape. An economy overly dependent upon a single industry, tourism, in this case, is a disaster waiting to happen should anything happen to that industry. Pandemic restrictions, for instance.

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Can flying go green? | The Economist

2021-02-10

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Covid-19 has caused the worst crisis in aviation's history. Is this the industry's moment for a green reset—and which technologies offer the best hope? Read The Economist’s special report on business and climate change: https://econ.st/3bbckJZ Sign up to The Economist’s fortnightly climate change newsletter: https://econ.st/3b8FQ3c Find our most recent climate change coverage: https://econ.st/3pQLYkq Can the aviation industry fully recover...

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Permanent Jobs And Permanent Job Losses

2021-02-09

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2021-02-09

Consumer Credit, Levels NSA 1990-2020
Even the feds haven’t been able to keep up. Without the government having taken over student loans in the wake of 2008-09’s Great “Recession”, there’d have been almost no additional consumer credit extended during the decade since.

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The Insatiable Appetite to Tax Social Security Benefits

2021-02-09

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2021-02-09

First, it was 10%, then 20%, and today more than 50% of U.S. retirees pay taxes on their Social Security benefits, and the number is expected to go even higher. The cause seems to be that one government hand doesn’t know, or care, what the other government hand is doing.

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Even The People ‘Printing’ The ‘Money’ Aren’t Seeing It

2021-02-07

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2021-02-07

Inflation Europe, 2007-2020
Everyone in Europe has long forgotten about what was going on there before COVID. First, an economy that had been stuck two years within a deflationary downturn central bankers like Italy’s new recycled top guy Mario Draghi clumsily mistook for an inflationary takeoff. Both the inflation puzzle and ultimately a pre-pandemic recession have taken a back seat to everything corona.Whereas Draghi spent those years howling for inflationary conditions...

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The Top 10percent Is Doing Just Fine, The Middle Class Is Dying on the Vine

2021-02-06

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2021-02-06

Please study these charts as a means of understanding the inevitability of economic stagnation and a revolt of the decapitalized middle class.

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The minimum wage: does it hurt workers? | The Economist

2021-02-05

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Joe Biden has pledged to raise America's national minimum wage to $15 an hour. Economists traditionally believed that minimum wages actually hurt workers, but recent research has led to a rethink. Sign up to The Economist’s newsletter to stay up to date: https://econ.st/3tgaHl5 Find all of our finance and economics coverage: https://econ.st/3pujLQM Why does low unemployment no longer lift inflation? https://econ.st/3j8sWEj Why a surge in...

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Dollar Consolidates Its Gains Ahead of Jobs Report

2021-02-05

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2021-02-05

German Data, 2016-2021
Senate Democrats are setting the table for passage of President Biden’s proposed $1.9 trln relief bill; there were glimmers of possible bipartisanship in some of the votes; US January jobs data is the highlight; Canada also reports January jobs data; Colombia reports January CPI.

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Covid-19 vaccines: what information can you trust? | The Economist

2021-02-03

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Factual and reliable information is vital to creating trust in vaccines and to overcoming the pandemic. Ed Carr, The Economist’s deputy editor, and Natasha Loder, our health policy editor, answer some of the big questions about the global vaccination drive. Chapters 00:00 - Challenges in vaccinating the world 00:45 - Trust in vaccines 02:30 - mRNA vaccines 03:23 - Impact of variants on vaccination 04:29 - Time between vaccine doses 06:09 -...

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Our Fragile, Brittle Stock Market

2021-02-03

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2021-02-03

This heavily managed 'market structure' is far from equilibrium and extremely prone to instability.

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Silver Swans, Maginot Lines and the Unforeseen Risks of Collapse

2021-02-01

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2021-02-01

Our Nobility's assessment of risk and their war-gaming of vulnerabilities are fatally deficient. Many people have heard of Nassim Taleb's black swan but fewer understand how few events qualify as black swans. Per Wikipedia, a black swan is an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences, an event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences.

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GameStop: what it reveals about the US stockmarket | The Economist

2021-01-30

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The frenzied rise of GameStop’s share price baffled Wall Street and panicked the US Treasury. What does the GameStop story reveal about American stockmarkets? Our experts answer your questions. Chapter titles: 00:00 - GameStop surge explained 00:55 - Was Robinhood right to restrict trade? 01:56 - Short selling and short squeezes 03:05 - Is the stockmarket fair? 06:03 - Will it lead to more regulation? 06:51 - Is the US stockmarket overheated?...

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Joe Biden’s top 7 domestic priorities | The Economist

2021-01-29

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President Joe Biden faces numerous domestic challenges, from rolling out the covid-19 vaccine and economic stimulus, to tackling racial inequality and political polarisation. Our experts answer your questions on how Mr Biden can achieve his domestic priorities. Chapter titles 00:00 - America’s multiple crises 00:35 - The covid-19 crisis 02:06 - Climate change 03:51 - Immigration 05:16 - Race relations 07:59 - Income inequality 09:28 - Fake news...

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Dollar Remains Firm Despite Dovish Fed Hold

2021-01-28

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2021-01-28

Cross-Market Implied Vol, 2020-2021
The FOMC delivered a dovish hold, as we expected; we get our first look at Q4 GDP; Fed manufacturing surveys for January will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data will be closely watched.

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The Coming Revolt of the Middle Class

2021-01-28

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2021-01-28

That's how Neofeudal systems collapse: the tax donkeys and debt-serfs finally rebel and start demanding the $50 trillion river of capital take a new course. The Great American Middle Class has stood meekly by while the New Nobility stripmined $50 trillion from the middle and working classes. As this RAND report documents, $50 trillion has been siphoned from labor and the lower 90% of the workforce to the New Nobility and their technocrat...

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Covid-19: what will it take to vaccinate the world? | The Economist

2021-01-27

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The race to immunise the global population against covid-19 is under way. With the distribution of safe and effective vaccines posing an unprecedented challenge, what are the key obstacles to overcome? Keep up to date with The Economist’s coverage of the coronavirus: https://econ.st/2Y5BxxW Track covid-19 vaccine rollouts around the world: https://econ.st/3o3t74w Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to to read stories about covid-19 and...

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Dollar Trading Sideways as FOMC Meeting Begins

2021-01-26

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2021-01-26

Cumulative Covid-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people
The FOMC begins its two-day meeting today with a decision out tomorrow afternoon; Senate Minority Leader McConnell has finally agreed to a power-sharing deal based on the 2001 model; President Biden signaled willingness to negotiate his stimulus proposal in order to get a bipartisan deal; Fed manufacturing surveys for January will continue to roll out; Brazil reports mid-January IPCA inflation

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Dollar Flat as Markets Await Fresh Drivers

2021-01-25

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2021-01-25

Covid-19 Weekly Change
Discussions on President Biden’s proposed $1.9 trln fiscal package are getting off to a rocky start; Fed manufacturing surveys for January will continue to roll out. ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn viewed yield curve control for the region as “not sensible”;

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Cindy McCain: what next for the Republican Party? | The Economist Podcast

2021-01-23

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Cindy McCain shocked the Republican Party when she endorsed Joe Biden for president. Now, the widow of John McCain tells The Economist Asks podcast about her prediction that the Republican Party will split and her hopes for a new era of political co-operation in America. 00:00 Why Cindy McCain endorsed Joe Biden 00:42 - President Biden’s inauguration 02:08 - Reaction to invasion of Capitol building 04:56 - McCain’s relationship with the Republican...

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