Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Bond Reversal In Japan, But Pay Attention To It In Germany

2021-07-09

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2021-07-09

Japanese Gov't Bond Yields, Jan 2016 - Jul 2021
Yield curve control, remember that one? For a little while earlier this year, the modestly reflationary selloff in bonds around the world was prematurely oversold as some historically significant beginning to a massive, conclusive regime change.

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

2021-07-08

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Jeudi 8 juillet 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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Covid-19: why your life will never be the same again | The Economist

2021-07-08

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Across much of the world, covid-19 restrictions are starting to ease. The Economist has crunched the data to calculate how close countries are to pre-pandemic levels of normality—but will life ever be the same again? Read more here: https://econ.st/3AG9siz Search the interactive normality tracker: https://econ.st/3hDGHum How life is halfway back to pre-covid norms?: https://econ.st/3dQSy70 Read all of coronavirus coverage:...

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ISM’s Nasty Little Surprise Isn’t Actually A Surprise

2021-07-07

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2021-07-07

U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Employment, Jan 2017 - May 2021
Completing the monthly cycle, the ISM released its estimates for non-manufacturing in the US during the month of June 2021. The headline index dropped nearly four points, more than expected. From 64.0 in May, at 60.1 while still quite high it’s the implication of being the lowest in four months which got so much attention.

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Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

2021-07-07

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2021-07-07

Weekly Market Pulse interview with Joe Calhoun.

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A Few Things About Reinforced Concrete High-Rise Condos

2021-07-06

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2021-07-06

The second most remarkable thing about the sudden collapse of the Florida condo building was the rush to assure everyone that this was a one-off catastrophe: all the factors fingered as causes were unique to this building, the implication being all other high-rise reinforced concrete condos without the exact same mix of causal factors were not in danger.

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Virus Z: A Thought Experiment

2021-07-04

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2021-07-04

Let's run a thought experiment on a hypothetical virus we'll call Virus Z, a run-of-the-mill respiratory variety not much different from other viruses which are 1) very small; 2) mutate rapidly and 3) infect human cells and modify the cellular machinery to produce more viral particles.

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Mass extinction: what can stop it? | The Economist

2021-07-02

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The world’s animals and wildlife are becoming extinct at a greater rate than at any time in human history. Could technology help to save threatened species? Read our latest technology quarterly on protecting biodiversity: https://econ.st/3dqdkKN Listen to our Babbage podcast episode on the biodiversity crisis: https://econ.st/3dqfPww Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest stories:...

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Anyone Remember That Whole SLR Cliff?

2021-07-02

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2021-07-02

UST Yield Curve
Does anyone remember the SLR “cliff?” Of course you don’t, because in the end it didn’t seem to make any difference. For a few weeks, it was kind of ubiquitous if only in the sense that it was another one of those deep plumbing issues no one seems able to understand (forcing all the “experts” to run to Investopedia in order write something up about it).

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The Systemic Risk No One Sees

2021-07-02

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2021-07-02

Inequality Income, 1980 - 2021
My recent posts have focused on the systemic financial risks created by Federal Reserve policies that have elevated moral hazard (risks can be taken without consequence) and speculation to levels so extreme that they threaten the stability of the entire financial system.

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When Expedient “Saves” Become Permanent, Ruin Is Assured

2021-07-01

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2021-07-01

The belief that the Federal Reserve possesses god-like powers and wisdom would be comical if it wasn't so deeply tragic, for the Fed doesn't even have a plan, much less wisdom. All the Fed has is an incoherent jumble of expedient, panic-driven "saves" it cobbled together in the 2008-2009 Global Financial Meltdown that it had made inevitable.

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A Clear Balance of Global Inflation Factors

2021-06-30

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2021-06-30

Europe HICP and Germany HICP, Jan 2007 - May 2021
Back at the end of May, Germany’s statistical accounting agency (deStatis) added another one to the inflationary inferno raging across the mainstream media. According to its flash calculations, German consumer prices last month had increased by the fastest rate in 13 years.

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Inflation Isn’t Just The Outlier, The Inflation In It Is, Too

2021-06-29

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2021-06-29

PCE Deflator Fed, Jan 2017 - June 2021
Following the same recent pattern as the BLS and its CPI, the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) PCE Deflator ran up hotter in May 2021 than its already high increase during April. The latter’s headline consumer basket rose 3.91% year-over-year, its fastest pace since August 2008.

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America’s Social Order is Unraveling

2021-06-28

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2021-06-28

Inequality Income, 1980 - 2020
What kind of nation boasts a record-high stock market and an unraveling social order? Answer: a failed nation, a nation that has substituted artifice for realism for far too long, a nation that now depends on illusory phantoms of capital, prosperity and democracy to prop up a crumbling facade of "wealth" that the populace now understands is largely in the hands of a few families and corporations, most of which pay little to support the citizenry...

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China’s economy: what’s its weak spot? | The Economist

2021-06-25

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The number of working-age people in China is shrinking. Could this threaten the country’s rise as an economic superpower? Read more here: https://econ.st/3dgzqz0 Find all of our coverage about China here: https://econ.st/3qpd7wz Read our special report about Chinese youth: https://econ.st/2TXmwzd Is China’s population shrinking? https://econ.st/3vTXxu2 Listen to an episode of “The Intelligence” podcast about China’s census:...

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

2021-06-24

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Jeudi 24 juin 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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It Always Ends The Same Way: Crisis, Crash, Collapse

2021-06-24

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2021-06-24

Dysfunctional Markets
One of the most under-appreciated investment insights is courtesy of Mike Tyson: "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." At this moment in history, the plan of most market participants is to place their full faith and trust in the status quo's ability to keep asset prices lofting ever higher, essentially forever.

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Sure Looks Like Supply Factors

2021-06-23

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2021-06-23

CME Random Length Lumber Futures, Jan 2020 - Jun 2021
If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it must be inflationary overheating. Or not? As more time passes and the situation further evolves, the more these recent price deviations conform to the supply shock scenario rather than a truly robust economy showing no signs of slowing down.

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Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

2021-06-22

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2021-06-22

Weekly Market Pulse on June 21, where we look at significant things from last week's events with Joe Calhoun.

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Front-Running the Crash

2021-06-21

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2021-06-21

We have a fine-sounding word for running with the herd: momentum. When the herd is running, those who buy what the herd is buying and sell what the herd is selling are trading momentum, which sounds so much more professional and high-brow than the noisy, dusty image of large mammals (and their trading machines) mindlessly running with the herd.

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