Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Dollar Continues to Soften Ahead of FOMC Decision

2020-12-20

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2020-12-20

Inflation Expectations, 2015-2019
Optimism on a stimulus deal remains high; the FOMC decision will be key; the dollar tends to weaken on recent FOMC decision days November retail sales will be the US data highlight; Markit reports preliminary December PMI readings; Canada reports November CPI

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Jeff Snider (Shadow Money, Derivatives, Free Banking, Bitcoin, “Money Printing”)

2020-12-19

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✅ Want to take your investing to the next level? Check out my new online investing forum!! I've partnered with Lyn Alden and Chris MacIntosh to bring you the best investment tool on the internet...Rebel Capitalist Pro. Check out our special offer at https://www.GeorgeGammon.com/pro

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Consumers, Too; (Un)Confident To Re-engage

2020-12-19

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2020-12-19

Friedman's Plucking Model of Trend-Cycle Analysis
There is a lot of evidence which shows some basis for expectations-based monetary policy. Much of what becomes a recession or worse is due to the psychological impacts upon businesses (who invest and hire) as well as workers being consumers (who earn and then spend).

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Inflation Fairy Tale: Why It’s Deflation We Should Worry About (w/ Steven Van Metre & Jeff Snider)

2020-12-18

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Is inflation on the horizon? Should bank reserve balances stored with the Federal Reserve count as money?

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What Did Hamper Growth ‘In A Few Months’

2020-12-18

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2020-12-18

US Industrial Production, SA 2011-2020
Over here, on the other side of that ocean, the US economy can only dream of the low levels Chinese industry has been putting up this late into 2020. At least those in the East are back positive year-over-year. Here in America, manufacturing and industry can’t even manage anything like a plus sign.

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Some Thoughts on the Latest Treasury FX Report

2020-12-18

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2020-12-18

The US Treasury’s latest “Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States” report named Switzerland and Vietnam as currency manipulators. Both countries came under scrutiny in the last report and so this week’s announcement was only surprising in that it was made by a lame duck administration that will be gone in a month.

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What is history’s deadliest pandemic? | The Economist

2020-12-17

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The covid-19 pandemic may have derailed the world in 2020, but a far deadlier disease has shaped human history for thousands of years. Malaria defeated armies, fuelled the slave trade and jump-started the modern environmental movement. How covid-19 hinders the fight against malaria: https://econ.st/3gAsfCj Why malaria prevention needs to be fine-tuned: https://econ.st/3oEGhFE Mapping humanity’s progress in its fight against malaria:...

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Can 20 Years of Deflation Be Compressed into Two Years? We’re About to Find Out

2020-12-17

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2020-12-17

Extremes become more extreme right up until they reverse, a reversal no one believes possible here in the waning days of 2020.

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This Global Growth Stuff, China Still Wants A Word

2020-12-16

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2020-12-16

Before there could be “globally synchronized growth”, it had been plain old “global growth.” The former from 2017 appended the term “synchronized” to its latter 2014 forerunner in order to jazz it up. And it needed the additional rhetorical flourish due to the simple fact that in 2015 for all the stated promise of “global growth” it ended up meaning next to nothing in reality.Oddly the same for 2017’s update heading into 2018 and...

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FOMC Preview

2020-12-15

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2020-12-15

Coronavirus Daily Change, 2020
The two-day FOMC meeting starts tomorrow and wraps up Wednesday afternoon. While no policy changes are expected, we highlight what the Fed may or may not do. We expect a dovish hold, with Powell underscoring the growing downside risks facing the US economy in the coming months.

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One Little Problem with the “All-Electric” Auto Fleet: What Do We Do with all the “Waste” Gasoline?

2020-12-15

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2020-12-15

Primary energy consumption by source, 1965-2018
Regardless of what happens with vaccines and Covid-19, debt and energy--inextricably bound as debt funds consumption-- will destabilize the global economy in a self-reinforcing feedback.

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Making Sense Eurodollar University Episode 37 Part 2

2020-12-14

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Europe's latest PMI scores tell us the continent is falling into re-recession, perhaps not unlike Japan. Where did the momentum disappear to? The USA has better PMIs but should that give us comfort?

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-12-14

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2020-12-14

The Senate passed a stopgap bill late Friday that will keep the government funded until midnight this Friday; optimism on a stimulus deal appears to be picking up; the two-day FOMC meeting ending with a decision Wednesday will be important.

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Inflation Hysteria #2 (Slack-edotes)

2020-12-13

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2020-12-13

Macroeconomic slack is such an easy, intuitive concept that only Economists and central bankers (same thing) could possibly mess it up. But mess it up they have. Spending years talking about a labor shortage, and getting the financial media to report this as fact, those at the Federal Reserve, in particular, pointed to this as proof QE and ZIRP had fulfilled the monetary policy mandates – both of them.

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Lyn Alden & Jeff Snider: US economy, Eurodollar System, Dollar, Digital Currency, Gold (RCS EP 94)

2020-12-12

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Interview original date: September 11th, 2020

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Inflation Hysteria #2 (WTI)

2020-12-12

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2020-12-12

Sticking with our recent theme, a big part of what Inflation Hysteria #1 (2017-18) also had going for it was loosened restrictions for US oil producers. Seriously.

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Ep 127- Jeffrey Snider “How Do Swap Lines Work?”

2020-12-11

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Jeff Snider is the Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments, and here he explains how ridiculous the swap line system is. Swap lines don't work like how most people think they work.

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Dollar Rally Running Out of Steam Ahead of ECB Decision

2020-12-10

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2020-12-10

Stimulus talks drag on; US November CPI will be today’s data highlight; US Treasury wraps up a big week of auctions today with $24 bln of 30-year bonds on offer. The November budget statement will hold some interest; weekly jobless claims will be closely watched;

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How to restore trust in politics | The Economist

2020-12-09

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In America, Britain and other Western countries, voters have lost trust in politics. Is the answer to reboot an ancient idea? Read more here: https://econ.st/3ov9kvo Sign up to our weekly newsletter: https://econ.st/37NpM3E Can citizens assemblies save democracy?: https://econ.st/37zAtXf Can ordinary people solve the political deadlock?: https://econ.st/3qsTTps How can we bring polarised societies together? https://econ.st/3qp5k1v How...

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Inflation Hysteria #2 (Nominal UST)

2020-12-09

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2020-12-09

UST Yield Curve, 2017-2018
What had given Inflation Hysteria #1 its real punch had been the benchmark 10-year Treasury note. Throughout 2017, despite the unemployment rate in the US, globally synchronized growth being declared around the world (and being declared as some momentously significant development), and whatever other tiny factors acceding to the narrative, longer-term Treasury rates just weren’t buying it.

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