Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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The Red Warning

2022-02-24

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2022-02-24

Now it’s the Russian’s fault. Belligerence surrounding Donbas and Ukraine, raw materials and energy supplies to Europe threatened by Putin’s coiled bear. Why wouldn’t markets grow worried?There’s always a reason why we shouldn’t take these things seriously, or quickly dismiss them out of hand as the temporary product of whichever political fear-of-the-day.

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Our Leaders Made a Pact with the Devil, and Now the Devil Wants His Due

2022-02-22

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2022-02-22

The unprecedented credit-fueled bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate are popping, and America's corrupt leaders can only stammer and spew excuses and empty promises. Unbeknownst to most people, America's leadership made a pact with the Devil: rather than face the constraints and injustices of our economic-financial system directly, a reckoning that would require difficult choices and some sacrifice by the ruling financial-political elites,...

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Green building: can mushrooms help? | The Economist

2022-02-22

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The construction industry is responsible for 11% of the world’s man-made CO2 emissions—due to its reliance on concrete and steel. What alternative materials could be used in the future? Film supported by @Infosys 00:00 - What are some sustainable alternatives? 00:31 - Why is construction bad for the environment? 01:08 - The problem with concrete 02:00 - Promising alternatives to concrete 03:07 - Can mushrooms help construct buildings? 04:09 - The...

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Russia and Ukraine: how will the West react? | The Economist

2022-02-16

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A Russian invasion of Ukraine could be imminent. What is at stake and how will the West respond? Shashank Joshi, The Economist's defence editor, answers your questions. 00:00 - What’s happening in Ukraine? 01:10 - Is Putin bluffing? 02:08 - Is Ukraine prepared for conflict? 03:00 - What’s at stake for both Ukraine and Russia? 04:00 - How would an invasion impact the world? 05:09 - Does this situation threaten peace elsewhere? 06:25 - How should...

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How AI can make health care better | The Economist

2022-02-15

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AI has the power to transform health care. From more efficient diagnoses to safer treatments, it could remedy some of the ills suffered by patients. Film supported by @Maersk 00:00 - Can AI help heal the world? 00:45 - How can AI spot blindness? 04:01 - Protecting patients’ privacy 05:10 - How to share medical data safely 06:11 - Medical AI is rapidly expanding 08:02 - What do the sceptics say? 08.36 - Using AI for new medical devices 11:08 -...

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How to make computers less biased | The Economist

2022-02-10

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You might think technology is the great leveller. But as AI and other data-driven innovations race farther and faster ahead, the automation of racial bias is causing growing concern. 00:00 - Can technology be racist? 00:50 - Bias in facial-recognition tech 03:50 - Why do data discriminate? 05:50 - What can be done? 07:00 - How can regulations help? Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up with our latest stories:...

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Disputed Borders: Russia v Ukraine | The Economist

2022-02-09

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Vladimir Putin has already annexed Crimea and plunged Donbas into war. Now, he has amassed 100,000 troops at the Ukrainian border. Why can’t Russia leave Ukraine alone? 00:00 - The world’s eyes are on Ukraine 00:55 - Russia and Ukraine’s shared history 02:08 - Caught between Russia and the West 04:04 - Ukraine’s post-independence struggles 06:30 - Putin’s domestic issues 07:47 - Will Putin invade Ukraine? Find The Economist’s coverage on...

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How Empires Die

2022-02-08

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2022-02-08

When the state / empire loses the ability to recognize and solve core problems of security and fairness, it will be replaced by another arrangement that is more adaptable and adept at solving problems. From a systems perspective, nation-states and empires arise when they are superior solutions to security compared to whatever arrangement they replace: feudalism, warlords, tribal confederations, etc.

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NFTs: are they worth the hype? | The Economist

2022-02-03

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In the past year a new trend in the crypto world has boomed: NFTs, or non-fungible tokens. They started as a way for digital artists to have ownership over their work but have transformed into a dizzying new multi-billion-dollar marketplace. Are they worth the hype? 00:00 - Are NFTs worth the hype? 01:38 - How to sell an NFT 03:24 - Where did NFTs come from? 04:51 - Why are NFTs so popular? 05:45 - NFTs in the artworld 07:04 - The risks in buying...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Are We There Yet?

2022-01-31

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2022-01-31

I’ll just get this out of the way right at the beginning. The question in the title of this post refers to the end of the ongoing stock market correction and the answer is likely no. There are no sure things in this business so it isn’t an unequivocal no, but based on history, the odds favor more weakness.

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FOMC Goes With Unemployment Rate While This Huge Number Happens To Far More Relevant Economic Data

2022-01-29

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2022-01-29

The first time I can consciously remember using the term landmine was probably here in February 2019. I had described the same process play out several times before, I had just never applied that term. There was all sorts of market chaos in the final two months of 2018, including a full-on stock market correction, believe it or not, leaving the inflation and recovery narrative in near complete tatters.

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After Today’s FOMC, Yield Curve Is Already As Flat As It Was In Mar ’18 **Without A Single Rate Hike Yet**

2022-01-28

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2022-01-28

It’s not hard to reason why there continues to be this conflict of interest (rates). On the one hand, impacting the short end of the yield curve, the unemployment rate has taken a tight grip on the FOMC’s limited imagination. The rate hikes are coming and the markets like all mainstream commentary agree that as it stands there’s nothing on the horizon to stop Jay Powell’s hawkishness.

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Keeping warm, without warming the planet | The Economist

2022-01-27

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Humans are cranking up their thermostats at the expense of the planet. With the majority of global heating still powered by dirty fuels, are there greener solutions that won't cost the earth? Read more: https://econ.st/3g3GNeq Film supported by @Infosys 00:00 - Heating the planet with domestic heating 01:06 - South Africa’s energy supply 02:59 - What is a heat pump and how does it work? 05:58 - The first step to decarbonising heating is...

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Rückläufige US-Erdölvorräte lassen Ölpreise steigen

2022-01-27

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2022-01-27

Die Vereinigten Staaten weisen sinkende Ölreserven auf. Dies führt zu einem Druck auf die Preise. Trotz eines Anstiegs der Rohölvorräte im jüngsten EIA-Bericht sind die kommerziellen Erdölvorräte in den USA in den meisten Wochen der letzten anderthalb Jahre zurückgegangen und liegen unter dem saisonalen Durchschnitt der letzten fünf Jahre und sogar unter dem Fünfjahresdurchschnitt vor der Pandemie.

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Inflation Winners and Losers

2022-01-27

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2022-01-27

The clear winners in inflation are those who require little from global supply chains, the frugal, and those who own their own labor, skills and enterprises. As the case for systemic inflation builds, the question arises: who wins and who loses in an up-cycle of inflation? The general view is that inflation is bad for almost everyone, but this ignores the big winners in an inflationary cycle.

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The Hawks Circle Here, The Doves Win There

2022-01-26

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2022-01-26

We’ve been here before, near exactly here. On this side of the Pacific Ocean, in the US particularly the situation was said to be just grand. The economy was responding nicely to QE’s 3 and 4 (yes, there were four of them by that point), Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had said in the middle of 2013 it was becoming more than enough, creating for him and the FOMC coveted breathing space so as to begin tapering both of those ongoing programs.A...

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Will you be eating insects soon? | The Economist

2022-01-25

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By 2050 there could be 10 billion human mouths to feed. Eating insects could help solve the global food-supply problem. Read more here: https://econ.st/3fTILxA Film supported by @Maersk 00:00 - 00:47 How to feed our growing population 00:47 - 03:23 The potential of insects 03:23 - 05:31 Eating cricket powder in Madagascar 05:31- 06:30 Madagascar's climate change famine 06:30 - 08:00 Cricket farming in Africa 08:00 - 11:30 Expanding insect...

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The Cult of Speculation Is a Cult of Doom

2022-01-25

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2022-01-25

Surely the Fed gods will affirm the cult's most revered articles of faith. But false gods eventually fail, even the Fed. Every once in awhile the zeitgeist sets up an either / or: either the zeitgeist is crazy or I'm crazy. (OK, let's agree I'm crazy; see, it's not that hard to find something to agree on, is it?)

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Weekly Market Pulse: Fear Makes A Comeback

2022-01-24

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2022-01-24

Fear tends to manifest itself much more quickly than greed, so volatile markets tend to be on the downside. In up markets, volatility tends to gradually decline.

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Good Time To Go Fish(er)ing Around The Yield Curve

2022-01-21

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2022-01-21

It should be as simple as it sounds. Lower LT UST yields, less growth and inflation. Thus, higher LT UST yields, more growth and inflation. Right? If nominal levels are all there is to it, then simplicity rules the interpretation. Visiting with George Gammon last week, he confessed to committing this sin of omission.

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