Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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May Payrolls (and more) Confirm Slowdown (and more)

2022-06-07

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2022-06-07

May 2022’s payroll estimates weren’t quite the level of downshift President Phillips had warned about, though that’s increasingly likely just a matter of time. In fact, despite the headline Establishment Survey monthly change being slightly better than expected, it and even more so the other employment data all still show an unmistakable slowdown in the labor market.

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"Pay-to-Play" for the Rest of Us

2022-06-06

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2022-06-06

The more kafkaesque quagmires you've slogged through, the more you hope "pay-to-play for the rest of us" beomes ubiquitous. You know how "pay-to-play" works: contribute a couple of million dollars to key political players, and then get your tax break, subsidy, no-bid contract, etc., slipped into some nook or cranny of the legislative process that few (if any) will notice because the legislation is hundreds of pages long or a "gut and replace" magic...

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No Pandemic. Not Rate Hikes. Doesn’t Matter Interest Rates. Just Globally Synchronized.

2022-06-06

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2022-06-06

The fact that German retail sales crashed so much in April 2022 is significant for a couple reasons. First, it more than suggests something is wrong with Germany, and not just some run-of-the-mill hiccup. Second, because it was this April rather than last April or last summer, you can’t blame COVID this time.

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Follow China’s True Line

2022-06-05

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2022-06-05

It’s a broken a record, the macro stylus stuck unable to move on, just skipping and repeating the same spot on the vinyl. Since Xi Jinping’s lockdowns broke it, as it’s said, when Xi is satisfied there’s zero COVID he’ll release the restrictions and that will fix everything. The economy will go right back to good, like flipping a switch.

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Biden vows to stand by Ukraine, major U-turn by US on weapon decision | Latest English News | WION

2022-06-05

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US President Joe Biden published an op-ed to clarify his strategy of support for Ukraine, under military attack from Russia. President Biden also took a major U-turn on his decision to not send certain type of weapons like longer-range rocket systems.

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ADP Front-Runs BLS and President Phillips

2022-06-04

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2022-06-04

It’s gotten to the point that pretty much everyone is now aware of the risks. Public surveys, market behavior, on and on, hardly anyone outside politics thinks the economy is in a good place. Gasoline, sentiment, whatever, Euro$ #5 in total is much more than what’s shaping up inside the American boundary. Globally synchronized of which the US is proving to be a close part.

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Ukraine grain production to drop 40 per cent over Russian invasion, says UGA | Latest English News

2022-06-04

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The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has said that county's wheat harvest is expected to fall by 40 percent, as the Russian invasion has sent prices soaring and sparked fears of a global food crisis.

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Who’s Going to Fix What’s Broken?

2022-06-04

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2022-06-04

When nobody cares that systems have broken down and there is no will or interest in fixing essential systems, there is no happy ending. Who fixes systems when they break down? The answer appears to be: nobody.

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Can’t Blame COVID For This One

2022-06-03

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2022-06-03

Late in March 2021, then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced a reverse. Several weeks before that time, Merkel’s federal government had reached an agreement with the various states to begin opening the country back up, easing more modest restrictions to move daily life closer to normal.

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More seek gun training in Taiwan as Ukraine invasion fuels China fears | Latest English News | WION

2022-06-03

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Amid a ragging war between Russia and Ukraine Taiwanese have started taking shooting lessons. From tour guides to tattoo artists, people in Taiwan are picking up rifles for the first time in their lives.

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President Phillips Emerges To Reassure On Growing Slowdown

2022-06-02

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2022-06-02

Just the other day, President Biden took to the pages of the Wall Street Journal to reassure Americans the government is doing something about the greatest economic challenge they face. Biden says this is inflation when that’s neither the actual affliction nor our greatest threat.

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Gravitas: Denmark prepares to take on Russia

2022-06-01

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Denmark is making a historic shift. After sitting on the sidelines for 30 years, it could join the European Union's common defence policy. Denmark is also considering allowing US troops on its soil. Palki Sharma tells you more.

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Peak Policy Error

2022-06-01

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2022-06-01

Another economic discussion lost to the eventual coronavirus pandemic mania was the 2019 globally synchronized downturn. Not just downturn, outright recession in key parts from around the world, maybe including the US.

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Why America Decays: The Tyranny of Self-Interest

2022-06-01

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2022-06-01

Only those societies which still have a functional public interest / common good will survive; those ruled by the tyranny of self-interest will fall. I've discussed the moral rot consuming the American Project in blog posts and my books.

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War in Ukraine: how has the world changed? | The Economist

2022-05-31

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It’s been more than three months since Russian tanks rolled across the border into Ukraine. The global impact—from the isolation of Russia to the hit on the world economy—has been far-reaching. Our experts explain how the invasion has fundamentally changed the world for the foreseeable future. 0:00 - The Ukraine war: three months that shook the world 0:45 - In what ways has the world been affected? 2:54 - Russia’s struggles in Ukraine 4:18 -...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Is The Bear Market Over?

2022-05-31

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2022-05-31

Stocks had a rip snorter of a rally last week and a lot of people are pondering the question in the title over this long weekend. The S&P 500 was down 20.9% from intraday high (4818.62, January 4th) to intraday low (3810.32, May 20th). From that intraday low the market has risen 9.1% in just six trading days.

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Inventory Flood Continues Just As Consumers Tap Out

2022-05-31

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2022-05-31

If it continues to play out the same way, it would be all the worst scenarios lumped together all at the same time. A real unfortunate convergence, yet one that has been entirely predictable. Consumers reaching their absolute spending limits.

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Russia scraps upper age limit for military recruits | Law to bring in technical specialists

2022-05-31

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Russia has abolished the upper age limit for military service in the country. The new law eliminated the age limit for both Russian citizens and foreigners of working age.

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Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Russian FM Lavrov calls Ukraine’s Donbas an ‘unconditional priority’

2022-05-30

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The “liberation” of Ukraine’s Donbas region is an “unconditional priority” for Moscow, while other Ukrainian territories should decide their future on their own, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview on Sunday.

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European leaders urge Putin to hold ‘direct negotiations’ with Zelensky

2022-05-30

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Russia's military offensive in Ukraine continues. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held a three-way telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin urging the Russian leader to hold direct and serious negotiations with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky .

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