Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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The Cyclical and Exchange-Rate Induced Chinese Slowing

2013-06-09

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2013-06-09

We believe in the Chinese economy, but it has just gone into a cyclical and a exchange-rate induced slowing. Any Cassandra views like recently by Charles Dumas, chief strategist of Lombard Research, but also some of Richard Koo’s earlier views, that there will be a burst of the Chinese housing bubble, are exaggerated. Markets Insight: …

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Abenomics: A USD/JPY Trade the Smart Money Banks on

2013-06-08

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2013-06-08

Hedge funds worldwide have been counting on a rise and subsequent fall in USDJPY, and conditions remain intact for that to happen, though not to the extremes that many once expected.

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Don’t Worry, Inflation Will Come Back! It is already there; just not where you might live!

We name the main drivers of disinflation and manipulators of the CPI: Markets, central banks, investors, governments, statisticians, ageing, entrepreneurs, global competition, and last but least the euro.

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06-01-13 Macro Analytics Transitioning to INNOVATION Driven w/ Charles Hugh Smith

2013-06-03

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Pictet Become “Secular Dollar Bulls” and Gold Bashers: Our Response

2013-06-01

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2013-06-01

  Precisely at the moment when the dollar undergoes a secular bashing with a 6% loss against the yen and 3% against the euro, Pictet publish their “secular dollar bull era” video and recommend investors to avoid gold. “Secular movements” in currency markets are mostly driven by current account (CA) surpluses or deficits, while housing …

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Abenomics: Japanese Economy Would Have Recovered Even Without it

2013-05-25

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2013-05-25

Response to Prof. Nick Rowe, Carleton University, Canada and Lars Christensen, the leading “Market Monetarist“.   Nick Rowe: Is the Bank of Japan trying to push down bond yields? Well, yes and no. Yes, it is fighting a battle to push down bond yields, but that battle is part of a wider war for economic recovery. And …

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How 40% Renmimbi appreciation vs Yen Caused a Deflationary Commodity Price Shock for World Economy

2013-05-23

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2013-05-23

Renmimbi vs Yen USD
  Everybody is wondering why China is currently so weak, with a HSBC manufacturing in contractionary territory. No wonder, the main competitor in electronics and many more products,the Japanese yen has appreciated by nearly 40%. While China has to fight years-long appreciation of wages, the Japanese profit on years-long deflation and cheaper costs. At the …

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Jim O’Neill’s Bullish BRICS Outlook until 2020 and our Critics

MSCI Emerging Markets
Perfect charts by Goldman's Jim O'Neill that help to understand the former and future growth of different emerging, "growth markets", the BRICS. We criticise his partially over-optimistic views.

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The Great “American” Divide

Corporate Profits against US GDP Growth
Disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. While asset prices are inflated by continued Fed interventions, boosting profits widening the wealth gap between the top 20% of Americans and the rest.

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Japanese Investors Will Determine Fate of USD/JPY not U.S. Hedge Funds

2013-04-12

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2013-04-12

asset categories japan, us equity securities currency deposits
By Stephen Jen (via Itau Global Connections). Bottom line Now that the Bank of Japan will be led by a team of super-doves, the mechanism through which a more aggressive BOJ could influence the yen is through capital flows. We have used the analogy of a two-stage rocket to describe how USDJPY could be propelled. … Continue reading »

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices

2013-04-11

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2013-04-11

Global PMIs December 3, 2012
Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators.   August 2013 Update Emerging markets: Years of strong increases in wages combined with tapering fears have taken its toll: Higher costs and lower investment capital available. EM Companies have issues in coping with developed economies. Some of them …

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BoJ: Despite Quantitative and Qualitative Easing No Sign of FX Purchases

2013-04-04

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2013-04-04

percent new vs. old program bank japan
The Bank of Japan has introduced the expected “massive” quantitative and qualitative easing programme. “Quantitative” means increase of quantities of JGBs bought, “qualitative” the purchase of more ETFs, REIT and the loan support program.

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The “Sell in May, Come Back in October” Effect and the 19 Fortune-Tellers of the FOMC

2013-04-03

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2013-04-03

fortune tellers
The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and April, this year additionally fueled by "unlimited" quantitative easing, weaker gas prices and higher competitiveness thanks to a stronger Chinese yuan and weaker Asian economies.   Update 2013: The Case-Shiller index continued to climb in April 2013; it became clear that this year the "Sell in May" …

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03-19-13 Macro Analytics – PEAK JOBS – w/ Charles Hugh Smith

2013-03-29

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PEAK JOBS 23 Minutes, 25 Slides Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith raise and debate seven key notions, that along with unsound money, are central to the understanding of the structural economic problems facing the globe today. The world is being brutally impacted by a slowing rate of growth in jobs and is now …

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Why the Yen Is Now Fairly Valued, USD back as Preferred Funding Currency

2013-03-15

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2013-03-15

Japan
Producer prices and “real mean reversion” for currencies show that the yen is currently fairly valued. Many momentum factors could, however, speak for some further weakening, while seasonality favours an appreciation. For us, the US dollar is back as the preferred funding currency. The real mean reversion for currencies Some economists, like Goldman’s O’Neill, in the case …

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More About Overheating Emerging Markets: Retail Investors Should not Touch these Bonds

2013-03-14

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2013-03-14

MSCI Emerging Markets
  In our series about emerging markets, we name some that are overheating and could face increases of government bond yields due to higher inflation and weaker current accounts. At the same time, banks are aggressively selling emerging market bonds as possibility to achieve high yields. Tristan Hanson, head of asset allocation at Ashburton Asset …

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When Will Hedge Funds and FX Traders Close their Short Yen Positions?

2013-03-05

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2013-03-05

Hedge Funds have lost their power. This year has shown that their only remaining possibility to gain easy money  is a concerted action with some of their friends manipulating currency markets, calling it “currency wars” and creating an unholy alliance with the dovish prime minister Abe. Some of the biggest U.S. hedge-fund investors have made …

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Is U.S. Housing Really Recovering? Pros and Cons

2013-02-28

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2013-02-28

New Home Sales
The U.S. housing market is the main driver for risk on/off movements and therewith implicitly of the gold price. We state charts, e.g. Shiller Home Price Index and U.S. New Home Sales statistics, arguments in favour of a housing recovery and the counter-arguments.

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Is U.S. Housing Really Recovering? A Discussion

Collection of 6 sources showing: Housing Market Index,Home Inventory, S&P/C-Shiller, New Home Sales&Prices and Ratio to Population, MBS Purchases by the Fed, Household Liabilities and Dependency Ratio.

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