Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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There’s a Difference: Fake News and Junk News

2017-02-25

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2017-02-25

U.S. Unemployment Rate 1950 - 2017
The mainstream media continues peddling its "fake news" narrative like a desperate pusher whose junkies are dying from his toxic dope. It's slowly dawning on the media-consuming public that the MSM is the primary purveyor of "fake news"-- self-referential narratives that support a blatantly slanted agenda with unsupported accusations and suitably anonymous sources.

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Not Recession, Systemic Rupture – Again

2017-02-25

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2017-02-25

Pyramid - Total US Gold Stock, January 2017
For the very few in the mainstream of economics who venture further back in history than October 1929, they typically still don’t go much last April 1925. And when they do, it is only to further bash the gold standard for its presumed role in creating the conditions for 1929. The Brits under guidance of Winston Churchill made a grave mistake, one from which gold advocates could never recover given what followed.

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Where have all the fish gone?

2017-02-24

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The death of corals is already affecting the human communities that depend on the ocean for survival. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 The world’s OCEANS cover 70% of our planet, are the frontline in the battle against climate change, and yet are relatively unknown. Dive down to their deepest depths …

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The dirty secret of clean energy | The Economist

2017-02-24

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The road to a future with an unlimited supply of clean energy is a rocky one. Ed Carr, our deputy editor, explains why energy features on the cover of this week’s The Economist. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films every day of the working week. For …

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The Market Is Not The Economy, But Earnings Are (Closer)

2017-02-23

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2017-02-23

S&P 500 EPS April 1996 - April 2016
My colleague Joe Calhoun likes to remind me that markets and fundamentals only sound like they should be related, an observation that is a correct one on so many different levels. Stock prices, in general, and GDP growth may seem to warrant some kind of expected correlation, but it has proven quite tenuous at times especially in a 21st century sense.

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The Problem with Gold-Backed Currencies

2017-02-23

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2017-02-23

China is debt breakdown
Any currency is only truly "backed by gold" if it is convertible to gold. There is something intuitively appealing about the idea of a gold-backed currency --money backed by the tangible value of gold, i.e. "the gold standard." Instead of intrinsically worthless paper money (fiat currency), gold-backed money would have real, enduring value-it would be "hard currency", i.e. sound money, because it would be convertible to gold itself.

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Corals: the largest organism on the planet

2017-02-23

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From providing much of the oxygen we breathe to hosting myriad forms of life, corals are a critical part of our planet’s eco-system. But they are dying. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 The world’s OCEANS cover 70% of our planet, are the frontline in the battle against climate change, and …

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Rex Tillerson: America’s new chief emissary | The Economist

2017-02-23

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Rex Tillerson, America’s secretary of state, will need all his nimble diplomacy when he meets Mexico’s president Enrique Pena Nieto to discuss trade and security. But any calming reassurance could be undermined the next time President Trump tweets. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films every day …

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The Criminalization of Financial Independence

2017-02-22

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2017-02-22

Wage GDP 1950 - 2016
Just as the "war on drugs" criminalized and destroyed large swaths of African-American and Latino communities, the "war on cash" will further criminalize the few remaining avenues to financial independence and freedom. The introduction of "entitlement" welfare in the 1960s generated a toxic dependency on the state that institutionalized worklessness, a one-two punch that undermined marriage and family in America's working class of all ethnicities.

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Saving corals from the effects of climate change

2017-02-22

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With the world’s corals threatened with extinction, scientists are using cutting edge technology to help these planetary treasures make a comeback. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 It covers more than 70% of the earths surface. The ocean is the planet’s lifeblood but its being transformed by climate change. Colonies of …

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The Stinking Politics of It All

2017-02-22

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2017-02-22

Potential Real Gross Domestic Products 1999Q1 - 2017Q1
It is largely irrelevant, but still the political theater is fascinating. As is now standard operating procedure, whatever comes out of the Trump administration immediately is conferred as the standard for awful. This is not my own determination, mind you, but that of the mainstream, whatever that is these days. And so it is with the first set of budget figures that include very robust growth projections, a point of contention and an obvious one...

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How Donald Trump plans to approach Iran | The Economist

2017-02-21

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How much tougher is Trump than Obama when it comes to Iran? Matthew Symonds, our defence and diplomatic editor, explains. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films every day of the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: …

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No Acceleration In Industry, Either

2017-02-20

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2017-02-20

U.S. Industrial Production Jan 2000 - Jan 2017
Industrial Production in the United States was flat in January 2017, following in December the first positive growth rate in over a year. The monthly estimates for IP are often subject to greater revisions than in other data series, so the figures for the latest month might change in the months ahead. Still, even with that in mind, there is no acceleration indicated for US industry.

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United States Economic Freedom Tumbles To Historic Low

2017-02-20

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2017-02-20

United States
After eight years of the regulation-happy Obama administration, the United States has undergone a huge slide into the 17th most economically free country in the world, according to the Heritage Foundation’s 2017 Index of Economic Freedom.

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How Robert Mugabe wrecked Zimbabwe

2017-02-20

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President Mugabe’s economic mismanagement of Zimbabwe has brought the country poverty and malnutrition. After 36 years in charge, he’s looking to extend his rule by 5 more years. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Robert Mugabe has ruled for 36 years, but this despot’s country is on its knees. Zimbabwe is …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2017-02-20

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2017-02-20

EM FX ended last week on a soft note, as some risk off sentiment crept back into the markets. The dollar gained broadly on Friday despite lower US rates as bonds rallied, the yen gained and equities sold off. Markit PMI for February Tuesday and FOMC minutes Wednesday could give the markets some further clues regarding Fed policy.

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MacroVoices Presents: Jeffrey Snider – Understanding the Global US Dollar Shortage

2017-02-19

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MacroVoices Presents: Jeffrey Snider – Understanding the Global US Dollar Shortage

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Their Gap Is Closed, Ours Still Needs To Be

2017-02-19

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2017-02-19

Potential Real GDP, 1999Q1 - 2009Q1
There are actually two parts to examining the orthodox treatment of the output gap. The first is the review, looking backward to trace how we got to this state. The second is looking forward trying to figure what it means to be here. One final rearward assessment is required so as to frame how we view what comes next. As I suggested earlier this week, the so-called output gap started at the trough of the Great “Recession” at around 10% of the CBO’s...

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-02-18

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2017-02-18

Head of Samsung Group Jay Y. Lee was formally arrested on allegations of bribery, perjury, and embezzlement. The assassination of Kim Jong Un’s half-brother suggests the political situation in North Korea may be heating up. The Polish central bank is tilting more hawkish. The Turkish central bank said it will allow domestic companies to use liras to repay export loans.

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Why Aren’t Oil Prices $50 Ahead?

2017-02-18

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2017-02-18

Oil Prices Oil Inflation Economy Circular
Right now there are two conventional propositions behind the “reflation” trade, and in many ways both are highly related if not fully intertwined. The first is that interest rates have nowhere to go but up. The Fed is raising rates again and seems more confident in doing more this year than it wanted to last year. With nominal rates already rising in the last half of 2016, and with more (surveyed) optimism than even 2014, it may at times seem the...

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