Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Earnings Update – A Poor Sort of Memory

2017-03-13

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2017-03-13

S&P 500 Earnings
“I don’t understand you,’ said Alice. ‘It’s dreadfully confusing!’ ‘That’s the effect of living backwards,’ the Queen said kindly: ‘it always makes one a little giddy at first–‘ ‘Living backwards!’ Alice repeated in great astonishment. ‘I never heard of such a thing!’ ‘–but there’s one great advantage in it, that one’s memory works both ways.’ ‘I’m sure mine only works one way,’ Alice remarked. ‘I can’t remember things before they happen.’...

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Gene editing and the future of doping in sport | The Economist

2017-03-13

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What if you could hack your DNA to run faster, jump higher or become stronger? Gene doping is an advanced medical technology that could help athletes recover from injuries, but could also be used by drug cheats to beat the competition. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2017-03-13

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2017-03-13

EM FX ended last week on a firm note despite the strong US jobs data, with the dollar succumbing to some “buy the rumor, sell the fact” price action.  We think the dollar should recover as the week begins, as it seems risky to be short/underweight dollars going into the FOMC meeting.  With the Fed poised to hike 3 or perhaps 4 times this year, we don't think EM FX can continue to rally the way it has so far this year.

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The Next Domino to Fall: Commercial Real Estate

2017-03-12

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2017-03-12

Just as generals prepare to fight the last war, central banks prepare to battle the last financial crisis--which in the present context means a big-bank liquidity meltdown like the one that nearly toppled thr global financial system in 2008-09.

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Do Record Debt And Loan Balances Matter? Not Even Slightly

2017-03-12

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2017-03-12

Z1 Total Debt Securities, 1980 - 2016
We live in a non-linear world that is almost always described in linear terms. Though Einstein supposedly said compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe, it rarely is appreciated for what the statement really means. And so the idea of record highs or even just positive numbers have been equated with positive outcomes, even though record highs and positive growth rates can be at times still associated with some of the worst. It...

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[ Jeffrey Snider ] Understanding the Global US Dollar Shortage

2017-03-12

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss: — Understanding the Eurodollar Money Market — Swap Spreads and Interbank . MacroVoices Presents: Jeffrey Snider – Understanding the Global US Dollar Shortage. Thanks for watching!!! Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss: — Understanding the Eurodollar Money Market — …

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Payrolls Still Slowing Into A Third Year

2017-03-11

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2017-03-11

Payrolls Est Survey, Jan 2010 - 2017
Today’s bland payroll report did little to suggest much of anything. All the various details were left pretty much where they were last month, and all the prior trends still standing. The headline Establishment Survey figure of 235k managed to bring the 6-month average up to 194k, almost exactly where it was in December but quite a bit less than November. In other words, despite what is mainly written as continued “strength” is still pointing down...

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Time, The Biggest Risk

2017-03-11

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2017-03-11

Oil WTI, May 2016 - February 2017
If there is still no current or present indication of rising economic fortunes, and there isn’t, then the “reflation” idea turns instead to what might be different this time as compared to the others. In 2013 and 2014, it was QE3 and particularly the intended effects (open ended and faster paced, a bigger commitment by the Fed to purportedly do whatever it took) upon expectations that supposedly set it apart from the failures of QE’s 1 and 2. This...

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Are Central Banks Losing Control?

2017-03-11

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2017-03-11

China Debt, 2002 - 2016
If you want a central banker to choke on his croissant, read him this quote from socio-historian Immanuel Wallerstein: "Countries (have lost the ability) to control what happens to them in the ongoing life of the modern world-system."

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No Paradox, Economy to Debt to Assets

2017-03-11

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2017-03-11

Household Net Worth, April 1951 - 2016
It is surely one of the primary reasons why many if not most people have so much trouble accepting the trouble the economy is in. With record high stock prices leading to record levels of household net worth, it seems utterly inconsistent to claim those facts against a US economic depression.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-03-11

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2017-03-11

North Korean banks subject to international sanctions have been banned from using Swift. Korea’s Constitutional Court upheld Parliament’s motion to impeach President Park. Singapore eased some property market curbs after a three-year decline in home prices. Egypt partially reversed a cut in bread subsidies. Nigeria’s President Buhari returned to the nation after spending nearly two months in the UK. Moody’s moved its outlook on Argentina’s B3...

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Same Country, Different Worlds

2017-03-10

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2017-03-10

China CPI PPI, February 2007 - 2017
To my mind, “reflation” has always proceeded under false pretenses. This goes for more than just the latest version, as we witnessed the same incongruity in each of the prior three. The trend is grounded in mere hope more than rational analysis, largely because I think human nature demands it. We are conditioned to believe especially in the 21st century that the worst kinds of things are either unrealistic or apply to some far off location nowhere...

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Quantum technology opens up a world of possibilities | The Economist

2017-03-10

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After a century confined to the laboratory, the quantum realm is turning its theoretical promise into practical opportunities. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films every day of the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk Like …

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Interview Questions For Charles Hugh Smith Exclusive March 2017

2017-03-10

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Interview Questions For Charles Hugh Smith Exclusive March 2017, Interview Questions For Charles Hugh Smith Exclusive March 2017

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US Trade Skews

2017-03-09

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2017-03-09

US Trade Export, NSA 1989-2016
US trade statistics dramatically improved in January 2017, though questions remain as to interpreting by how much. On the export side, US exports of goods rose 8.7% year-over-year (NSA). While that was the highest growth rate since 2012, there is part symmetry to account for some of it.

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Why are people choosing smaller dogs? | The Economist

2017-03-09

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Small dogs are becoming increasingly popular around the world. Why are people choosing little pooches? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Smaller, cheaper, cuter. Why are our dogs shrinking? In Britain the average weight of a dog has fallen by 12% since 2006. In America, small dogs are the most popular …

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Ocean: A 360-degree tour of the mysterious, magical corals of Palau | The Economist

2017-03-08

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Palau’s vibrant corals are thriving, despite some of the warmest and most acidic waters in the world. In this virtual reality experience, Lukas Isall from the Palau International Research Centre explains how unlocking the mystery of Palau’s corals might help in the fight against climate change. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: …

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China And Reserves, A Straightforward Process Unnecessarily Made Into A Riddle

2017-03-08

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2017-03-08

China Official Foreign Exchange 2015-2017
The fact that China reported a small increase in official “reserves” for February 2017 is one of the least surprising results in all of finance. The gamma of those reserves is as predictable as the ticking clock of CNY, in no small part because what is behind the changes in those balances are the gears that lie behind face of the forex timepiece.

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How to succeed as a woman in politics

2017-03-08

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Be confident and don’t succumb to “imposter syndrome”. Bangladeshi-born British member of Parliament Rushanara Ali offers her advice on International Women’s Day. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Rushanara Ali was first elected to Parliament in 2010. She is only of only three female Muslim members of Parliament in the United …

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Do Record Eurodollar Balances Matter? Not Even Slightly

2017-03-07

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2017-03-07

Nonbanks TIC Other Outbound, Nov 1978 - 2016
The BIS in its quarterly review published yesterday included a reference to the eurodollar market (thanks to M. Daya for pointing it out). The central bank to central banks, as the outfit is often called, is one of the few official institutions that have taken a more objective position with regard to the global money system. Of the very few who can identify eurodollars, or have even heard of them, the BIS while not fully on board is at least open...

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