Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

2017-12-11

EM FX closed on a firm note, though most currencies were down for the entire week. TRY and ZAR outperformed, but we do not think that will be sustained. FOMC meeting this week will provide some event risk for EM.

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Giant Sucking Sound Sucks (Far) More Than US Industry Now

2017-12-11

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-12-11

Case Study in Conundrum, Jan 1997 - 2004

There are two possibilities with regard to stubbornly weak US imports in 2017. The first is the more obvious, meaning that the domestic goods economy despite its upturn last year isn’t actually doing anything positive other than no longer being in contraction. The second would be tremendously helpful given the circumstances of American labor in the whole 21st century so far. In other words, perhaps US consumers really are buying at a healthy pace,...

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Reduced Trade Terms Salute The Flattened Curve

2017-12-10

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-12-10

The Census Bureau reported earlier today that US imports of foreign goods jumped 9.9% year-over-year in October. That is the second largest increase since February 2012, just less than the 12% import growth recorded for January earlier this year.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2017-12-09

2017-12-09

China eased curbs on coal use for heating in the northern provinces to cope with colder weather. Poland announced a cabinet shuffle. Poland’s lower house approved the controversial judicial reform bill. President Trump announced that the US recognizes Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Brazil COPOM was more dovish than expected after cutting rates 50 bp to 7.0%. Chile central bank cut its 2017 and 2018 inflation forecasts and shifted to a more dovish...

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Foreign aid: who gives the most, and where does it go? | The Economist

2017-12-08

Rich countries are giving more in foreign aid than ever before. But which countries are the most generous? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2AAzFCG Rich countries are giving away more in aid than at any other time on record. In 2016 more than $140bn was distributed around the world. According to …

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Who You Gonna Believe?

2017-12-07

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-12-07

We’ve had a pretty good run of data recently and with the tax bill passing the Senate one would expect to see markets react positively, to reflect renewed optimism about economic growth. We have improving economic data on pretty much a global basis. It isn’t a boom by any stretch of the imagination but there is no doubt that the rate of change has recently been more positive.

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North Korea’s nuclear threat in 2018 | The Economist

2017-12-06

North Korea claims it can now launch missiles that can hit anywhere in mainland America. But in 2018 could the war of words between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump spiral into nuclear catastrophe? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2AAPWW3 In April 2018, North Korea will hold a national celebration to …

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Shows Where To Invest When Almost Everything Is A Bubble CHARLES HUGH SMITH

2017-12-06

Please click above to subscribe to my channel Thanks for watching! Financial News Silver News Gold Bix Weir RoadToRoota Road To Roota Kyle Bass Realist . Subscribe & More Videos: Thank for watching, Please Like Share And SUBSCRIBE!!! #jimrickards, #maneco64. Please Click Below to SUBSCRIBE for More Special Reports Videos Thanks for watching! Please click …

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The Cost Basis of our Economy is Spiraling Out of Control

2017-12-06

2017-12-06

What will it take to radically reduce the cost basis of our economy? If we had to choose one "big picture" reason why the vast majority of households are losing ground, it would either be the stagnation of income or the spiraling out of control cost basis of our economy, that is, the essential foundational expenses of households, government and enterprise.

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A plan for Palestine’s peace and prosperity | The Economist

2017-12-04

Can Palestine become a prosperous and peaceful region? Munib al-Masri is the richest Palestinian in the world and he has a four-point plan to rebuild his homeland. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2ATg55H This man is known as “The Godfather of Palestine’. He’s a self made billionaire. Munib al-Masri is the …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2017-12-04

2017-12-04

EM FX ended the week on a mixed note. US jobs data may refocus market attention on Fed tightening. Most EM inflation readings this week are expected to show easing price pressures, supporting a dovish EM central bank outlook. The major exceptions are Mexico and Turkey, whose central banks may be forced to tighten policy in the coming weeks.

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Stock Market 2018: The Tao vs. Central Banks

2017-12-04

2017-12-04

The central banks claim omnipotent financial powers, and their comeuppance is overdue. will be the first to admit that invoking the woo-woo of the Tao as the reason to expect a reversal of the stock market in 2018 smacks of Bearish desperation. With everything coming up roses in much of the global economy, there is precious little foundation for calling a tumultuous end to the global Bull Market other than variations of nothing lasts forever.

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Did Anyone Do Even a Minimal Check on the Sensationalist Bitcoin Electrical Consumption Story?

2017-12-03

2017-12-03

Check the context before uncritically accepting sensationalist conclusions. Let's start with a primer on how to write a sensationalist story that can be passed off as "journalism:" 1. Locate credible-sounding data that can be de-contextualized, i.e. sensationalized. 2. Present the data as "fact" rather than data that requires verification by disinterested researchers.

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Charles Hugh Smith Insights On Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

2017-12-02

Click here for the full transcript with slides: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2017/12/02/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-insights-on-bitcoin-and-cryptocurrencies/

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-12-02

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-12-02

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market did not correct since the last update and so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2017-12-02

2017-12-02

Bank of Korea hiked rates by 25 bp to 1.50%, the first hike in six years. Egypt central bank lifted the last remaining currency controls. S&P cut South Africa’s foreign currency rating one notch to BB with stable outlook. Turkey President Erdogan was implicated in an alleged plot to help Iran evade US sanctions. Moody’s upgraded Argentina one notch to B2 with stable outlook.

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My Crazy $17,000 Target for Bitcoin Is Looking Less Crazy

2017-12-01

2017-12-01

The basis of this admittedly crazy forecast was simple: capital flows. I think we can all agree that bitcoin (BTC) is "interesting." One of the primary reason that bitcoin (and cryptocurrency in general) is interesting is that nobody knows what will happen going forward. Unknowns and big swings up and down are characteristics of open markets.It's impossible to forecast bitcoin's future price because virtually all the future inputs are unknown.

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The Asymmetry of Bubbles: the Status Quo and Bitcoin

2017-12-01

2017-12-01

Regardless of one's own views about bitcoin/cryptocurrency, what is truly remarkable is the asymmetry that is applied to questioning the status quo and bitcoin. As I noted yesterday, everyone seems just fine with throwing away $20 billion in electricity annually in the U.S. alone to keep hundreds of millions of gadgets in stand-by mode, but the electrical consumption of bitcoin is "shocking," "ridiculous," etc.

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Donald Trump’s big test in 2018 | The Economist

2017-11-30